Forecasters warn of G1–G2 magnetic storms on Earth on 9 October
In short
Russian forecasters say weak to moderate geomagnetic storms, classed G1–G2, may hit Earth on Friday, 9 October, with about 80% probability. The cause is two relatively large plasma clouds from recent M-class solar flares that international forecast centers expect to reach Earth early that morning. Disturbances are expected to last about two days, with the geomagnetic field returning to calm by 11 October.
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Several Russian outlets reported on 7 October that Earth may experience weak to moderate magnetic storms on Friday, 9 October. RIA Novosti reported the forecast in the morning, and RBC cited Mikhail Leus, lead specialist at the Fobos weather center, as warning of magnetic storms on Friday. RIA Novosti later reported that a surge in solar activity would cause the storms. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
Vedomosti reported that Leus said weak and moderate storms, classified G1–G2, are possible with about 80% probability. Solar activity increased this week, with several M-class flares, and two of them ejected two relatively large plasma clouds toward Earth, he said. According to international forecast centers, those clouds will reach Earth early on 9 October. The geomagnetic disturbances will last about two days, and the field is expected to return to calm on 11 October. [ 3 ]
iXBT also cited Leus in reporting that plasma clouds from recent solar flares will reach Earth early on Friday and cause G1–G2 disturbances. The technology outlet said the flares occurred on 6 October and were of the penultimate M class, sending two large plasma clouds toward the planet. It added that elevated magnetic-field activity is expected to last about two days, with a return to calm forecast by 11 October. [ 4 ]
RBC, citing Leus, said the geomagnetic field should return to a calm state on Sunday, while Vedomosti and iXBT put the return to calm on 11 October. The forecast therefore centers on Friday and the following weekend. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Vedomosti also noted recent geomagnetic activity, saying a G1 magnetic storm was recorded on Earth on 18 August and another occurred on 2 August. Those references were included as background to the current forecast. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
The forecast concerns a global geomagnetic event, so it is relevant to readers beyond Russia. The documents do not state expected effects on satellites, communications, power grids or daily life, so the practical consequences remain unspecified.
Key facts
- Magnetic storms are expected on Earth on Friday, 9 October. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- Vedomosti reported about 80% probability for weak to moderate G1–G2 storms; iXBT also cited G1–G2. [ 3 , 4 ]
- The cause is two relatively large plasma clouds from recent M-class solar flares, directed toward Earth. [ 3 , 4 ]
- International forecast centers expect the plasma clouds to reach Earth early on 9 October. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Geomagnetic disturbances are expected to last about two days, with calm returning by 11 October. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- RIA Novosti later reported that a surge in solar activity will cause the storms. [ 5 ]
- Vedomosti noted prior storms on 18 August and 2 August. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Magnetic storms are expected on Earth on Friday, 9 October. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- The forecast is linked to a rise in solar activity and plasma clouds from solar flares. [ 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- Geomagnetic disturbances are expected to last around two days, with calm by 11 October. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- International forecast centers estimate the plasma clouds will reach Earth early on 9 October. [ 3 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the G1–G2 storms will definitely occur One forecast gives about 80% probability; other outlets describe the storms as possible or expected without a probability.
- Expected effects on Earth No document lists impacts on satellites, communications, power grids or daily life.
- Timing of the solar flares Vedomosti refers to several M-class flares this week; iXBT specifies flares on 6 October.
- Exact arrival time of the plasma clouds Documents say early morning on 9 October but give no precise clock time.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- RIA Novosti publishes a report that magnetic storms are expected on Earth on Friday. [ 1 ]
- RBC cites forecaster Mikhail Leus warning of magnetic storms on Friday and says the field should return to calm on Sunday. [ 2 ]
- Vedomosti publishes Leus’s forecast of possible G1–G2 storms on 9 October with about 80% probability, plasma clouds reaching Earth early that morning and calm by 11 October. [ 3 ]
- iXBT reports the magnetic storm will cover Earth for two days and notes M-class flares on 6 October. [ 4 ]
- RIA Novosti reports that a surge in solar activity will cause magnetic storms on Friday. [ 5 ]