Korea's deputy PM sees 2026 growth of 3.4-3.6% after Bangkok talks with rating agencies

Lee Hyung-il, Korea's deputy prime minister and economy and finance minister, said this year's growth could reach the mid-3% range, which he defined as 3.4%, 3.5% or 3.6%, provided no new external event has a big effect. He spoke on 16 October at a briefing for the accompanying press corps in Bangkok, where he was attending G20 and G7 finance meetings and the IMF-World Bank annual meetings. [ 9 , 10 , 11 ]

The government gave a forecast of 3.0% in July. Maeil Business and Kyunghyang Shinmun reported that the IMF raised its figure for Korea from 2.6% to 3.3% during the annual meetings and the OECD from 2.6% to 3.7%. Newsis said Lee's range is above forecasts by the Bank of Korea (3.3%), the Korea Development Institute (3.2%) and the Asian Development Bank (3.2%), below the OECD's, and includes Moody's 3.5%. Lee said exports and facility investment were strong in the third quarter, after quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.8% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second. [ 9 , 10 , 11 , 21 ]

Lee also said potential growth could rebound, calling the timing imminent, though he gave no figure. He said semiconductor demand remains high while supply is short, and he expected investment strength to continue next year. Yonhap noted that the IMF estimated potential growth rising from 1.94% last year to 2.14% this year and 2.20% next year. [ 9 , 10 , 13 ]

Lee said the government will raise how often it presents growth forecasts from two to three times a year, with extra measures where needed each time instead of a separate second-half growth strategy. Outlets differ on whether this is decided or still under review. [ 10 , 12 , 13 , 18 ]

On the stock market, Lee cited worries over higher global interest rates, doubts about the profitability of AI and chip investment, and geopolitical risk in the Middle East, but said the fundamentals of the economy and market remain solid. Asked about a stabilisation fund or a short-selling suspension, he said the government is ready for market stabilisation measures if needed and will decide on any step according to conditions. He described the won's fall from 1,559.2 per dollar in early July to 1,328.9 on 16 October as a return to fundamentals, and called a Korea-US currency swap meaningful and necessary while saying Korea is not asking for one because of a liquidity shortage. [ 13 , 18 , 20 , 21 ]

On 16 October Lee also met the heads of Moody's, Fitch and S&P. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said on 18 October that the agencies see the chip and AI boom offsetting slowdown concerns from ageing and the Middle East war, and that growth, fiscal and external indicators are stable and the credit rating is being maintained stably. The agencies showed interest in fiscal policy, the use of extra tax revenue and the Future Response Fund. Lee said the government plans to build large reserves in the fund and is using this year's excess tax revenue to reduce Treasury bond issuance. [ 2 , 4 , 5 , 6 ]

Lee also signed memoranda with the EBRD and CABEI to set up AI cooperation hubs in Korea, and met Euroclear's chief executive to discuss wider use of Korean government bonds as collateral. [ 2 , 4 ]