Poll: 7 in 10 Americans unsure Trump would accept a Republican midterm defeat
In short
A Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos poll found 70% of respondents are not confident President Donald Trump would accept the result if Republicans lose the November midterms. The figure was 94% among Democrats, 77% among independents and 36% among Republicans. Respondents were far less divided on whether the election itself will be fair and accurate.
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Seven in 10 Americans are not confident that President Donald Trump would accept the outcome if Republicans lose the midterm elections in November, according to a poll by the Washington Post, ABC News and the polling firm Ipsos. Yonhap and Asia Economy said the Post reported the result on the 20th, U.S. time. Seventy percent of all respondents said they were not sure he would accept a Republican defeat. [ 1 , 2 ]
The answers differed sharply by party. Ninety-four percent of Democrats and 77% of independents gave that response, as did 36% of Republicans. Newsis and Dong-A Ilbo headlined the result as Americans saying Trump would not accept a defeat, while Yonhap and Asia Economy described respondents as not confident that he would. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
On the fairness of the election itself, the parties were close. Seventy percent of Democrats and 67% of Republicans said they trust the election to be fair and accurate. Newsis and Dong-A Ilbo said most Americans were confident that next month's midterms would be held fairly. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
On the outcome, 35% of respondents expected Democrats to win a House majority and 16% expected Republicans to keep theirs. Another 28% expected a close race. The poll surveyed 2,545 U.S. adults from the 9th to the 13th and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. [ 1 , 2 ]
The outlets noted that Trump has questioned the reliability of elections without presenting specific evidence. They said he repeated a claim they describe as false, that he won the 2020 presidential election, and claimed more votes than the official count in 2016. In a February NBC News interview, asked whether he would trust the result if Republicans lose, Trump said he would if the election is conducted honestly. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Newsis and Dong-A Ilbo added further material from the Post. A Johnson City, Tennessee, personnel manager named Johnny Smith, 69, who said he votes Republican but opposes Trump, told the Post that when things do not go his way Trump has to throw mud over them, that this is his way, and that he has shown it every time he has lost. The two outlets also said that states run U.S. elections and the president has no direct role in administering them. They said Trump told the New York Times in January that he regretted the military did not seize voting machines after his 2020 loss, and that local election officials told the Post in recent weeks they are preparing for possible seizures of ballots and the placement of federal agents at polling places. [ 3 , 4 ]
Why it matters
The poll shows wide doubt about how Trump would respond to a Republican loss, including among a share of Republicans. The Korean outlets that reported it also pointed to Trump's past questioning of election results and to local officials preparing for possible ballot seizures and federal agents at polling places.
Key facts
- 70% of respondents said they are not confident Trump would accept the result if Republicans lose the November midterm elections. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- By party, 94% of Democrats, 77% of independents and 36% of Republicans gave that answer. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- 70% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans said they trust the election to be fair and accurate. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- 35% of respondents expect Democrats to win a House majority, 16% expect Republicans to keep it, and 28% expect a close race. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The poll surveyed 2,545 U.S. adults from the 9th to the 13th, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. [ 1 , 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos poll found 70% of respondents not confident Trump would accept a Republican midterm defeat: 94% of Democrats, 77% of independents and 36% of Republicans. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- 70% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans said they trust the election to be fair and accurate. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- In a February NBC News interview, asked whether he would trust the result if Republicans lose, Trump said he would if the election is conducted honestly. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Fewer respondents expect Republicans to keep the House majority (16%) than expect Democrats to take it (35%). [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- How Trump would actually respond to a Republican defeat. The poll measures respondents' expectations only. Trump's February answer was conditional on the election being conducted honestly.
- Whether the 70% means respondents expect Trump to reject a loss or are merely unsure he would accept it. Yonhap and Asia Economy say respondents were not confident he would accept it. Newsis and Dong-A Ilbo say the poll found he would not accept it.
- The date the Washington Post published its report. Yonhap and Asia Economy say it was reported on the 20th (U.S. time). Newsis and Dong-A Ilbo say the Post reported on the 19th about Trump's election claims.