Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil first round as runoff set for 25 October
Version 2: Nearly complete counts now confirm Flávio Bolsonaro as the first-round winner with about 47% to Lula's 45%, the Supreme Electoral Court has confirmed a 25 October runoff, and both candidates have reacted publicly, where the previous report was based on an 85% count.
In short
Brazil's first round of presidential voting on 4 October ended with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party leading incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with near-complete counts putting him at about 47% to Lula's 45%. No candidate won an outright majority, so the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October, the Supreme Electoral Court confirmed. The result defied polls that had put Lula narrowly ahead.
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Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on 4 October, with 12 candidates on the ballot. With counting nearly complete, Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party were the top two, and since neither passed the 50% needed to win outright, they will meet in a runoff on 25 October, the Supreme Electoral Court said. [ 1 , 4 , 9 , 16 ]
Figures moved as the count advanced: 48.47% to 43.49% at 85% counted, reported by Dong-A Ilbo citing the Supreme Electoral Court and by Chosun Ilbo citing Reuters; 47.27% to 44.88% at 98.62%, Chosun Ilbo reported; 47.04% to 45.15% at 99%, Newsis reported; and 47.03% to 45.16% at 99.99%, Hankook Ilbo reported, citing the Associated Press. Bolsonaro passed 50% early before the margin narrowed, Dong-A Ilbo and Chosun Ilbo said. [ 4 , 6 , 8 , 9 , 15 , 16 ]
Bolsonaro led early as results came first from areas where he is strong, including São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, while counting was slower in the north-east, described as Lula's base, Asia Economy and Dong-A Ilbo reported. He also led in parts of the centre and north-west, with the gap at one point reaching 10 percentage points, Asia Economy said. Lula held the north-east but lost Minas Gerais and Tocantins, which he won in 2022, Newsis reported. [ 4 , 9 , 11 ]
Standing outside his home in Brasília with supporters, Bolsonaro said the result “means the end of the Workers' Party era”, Newsis reported, and told Kyunghyang Shinmun he was “more than happy” to confirm that Brazil wants change and that he needs only one term. Lula said he had expected to win the first round, adding that “the game has just started” and that he is strong in knockout stages, Kyunghyang Shinmun reported. Newsis quoted him as saying unexpected results sometimes happen and that a new campaign begins the next day. [ 9 , 16 ]
Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro; this is his first presidential run, Yonhap and Dong-A Ilbo reported. Lula is a three-time president seeking a fourth term in his seventh campaign; Yonhap gave his age as 81 while Newsis and Kyunghyang Shinmun said 80. A Datafolha poll published the day before the vote had Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42%, which Yonhap called the narrowest eve-of-vote gap between the top two since 1989. [ 1 , 9 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 ]
On policy, the Associated Press said a Bolsonaro victory would increase US influence in Latin America, while a Lula win would keep Brazil distant from Washington and closer to China, Newsis reported. Hankook Ilbo reported Bolsonaro's pledges to join a US-led anti-drug coalition, designate drug gangs as terrorist groups, build five maximum-security prisons and overhaul the judiciary; Kyunghyang Shinmun reported his promise to pardon his father, jailed for 27 years over coup plotting. Kyunghyang Shinmun said the economy appeared decisive, with about 20% of voters abstaining and about 8% backing a third candidate. [ 9 , 15 , 16 ]
Why it matters
Brazil is described by Dong-A Ilbo as Latin America's largest country by area and population, and Kyunghyang Shinmun says most South American governments have recently turned right, leaving Brazil as the last bastion of the regional left. Newsis, citing the Associated Press, says a Bolsonaro victory would increase US influence in Latin America while a Lula win would keep Brazil at a distance from Washington and strengthen its ties with China. The runoff's outcome is therefore framed as shaping the foreign policy of South America's largest economy.
Key facts
- Brazil's first round of presidential voting was held on 4 October, with 12 candidates on the ballot. [ 1 , 4 , 9 , 16 ]
- Counts reported by the Supreme Electoral Court and international agencies put Flávio Bolsonaro between about 47% and 48.5% and Lula between about 43.5% and 45.2%, with the margin narrowing as counting proceeded. [ 4 , 6 , 9 , 15 , 16 ]
- No candidate won a majority, so the top two will meet in a runoff on 25 October, which the Supreme Electoral Court confirmed. [ 9 , 11 , 15 , 16 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a Liberal Party senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro; Lula is the incumbent Workers' Party president seeking a fourth term. [ 1 , 9 , 14 , 15 ]
- Pre-vote polling by Datafolha had Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42%, and outlets described the result as defying those polls. [ 1 , 6 , 11 , 15 ]
- Bolsonaro led in the south, the centre and parts of the north-west; Lula held the north-east but lost Minas Gerais and Tocantins, which he won in 2022. [ 9 , 11 ]
- Bolsonaro said the result means the end of the Workers' Party era, while Lula said the game has just started. [ 9 , 16 ]
- About 20% of voters abstained in the first round. [ 15 , 16 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Brazil's first round of presidential voting was held on 4 October. [ 1 , 4 , 6 , 9 , 11 , 14 , 15 , 16 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula finished first and second, and a runoff will be held on 25 October. [ 2 , 4 , 6 , 9 , 11 , 14 , 15 , 16 ]
- No candidate reached the majority required to win outright in the first round. [ 1 , 9 , 11 , 15 , 16 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro; Lula is the incumbent Workers' Party president. [ 1 , 9 , 14 , 15 ]
- About 20% of voters abstained in the first round. [ 15 , 16 ]
Still unclear
- Lula's age. Yonhap gives it as 81, while Newsis and Kyunghyang Shinmun say 80.
- The size of the electorate. Yonhap says about 159 million voters, while Hankook Ilbo and Kyunghyang Shinmun, citing the New York Times, say about 125 million, with roughly 20% abstaining.
- Final certified first-round results. The documents report counts up to 99.99% but none reports an official certification or a final tally.
- Whether US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro. Newsis describes Bolsonaro as effectively backed by Trump, but the same outlet's fuller report says Trump did not publicly endorse him, and that passage is truncated.
- Exact vote shares, which differ slightly between outlets. Reported figures range from 47.03% to 48.47% for Bolsonaro and 43.49% to 45.16% for Lula, reflecting counts at different stages rather than a single agreed final number.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yonhap reports the first round is under way in 26 states, citing a Datafolha poll showing Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42%. [ 1 ]
- Yonhap reports that a Flávio Bolsonaro-Lula runoff is certain. [ 2 ]
- Newsis reports that the right-wing candidate, described as effectively backed by US President Donald Trump, is slightly ahead as counting nears its end. [ 3 ]
- Dong-A Ilbo reports 85% counted, with Bolsonaro at 48.47% and Lula at 43.49%, citing the Supreme Electoral Court. [ 4 ]
- Chosun Ilbo reports 98.62% counted as of 8:30 pm, with Bolsonaro at 47.27% and Lula at 44.88%. [ 6 ]
- Newsis reports the Supreme Electoral Court confirming a runoff, with 99% counted and Bolsonaro at 47.04% and Lula at 45.15%. [ 9 ]
- Kyunghyang Shinmun reports the nearly complete result and the reactions of both candidates. [ 16 ]