Brazil first-round count nears end with Bolsonaro ahead; runoff set for 25 October
Version 2: A third outlet, Maeil Business, reported a near-final count of 99.99% with Bolsonaro at 47.03% and Lula at 45.16%, and added Bolsonaro's post-result remarks, analysis pointing to discontent over living costs, household debt and security, and a cited market reaction; the 25 October runoff date is unchanged.
In short
Brazil's first-round presidential election was held on 4 October local time, and with 99.99% of votes counted Flávio Bolsonaro led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 47.03% to 45.16%, Maeil Business reported, citing Reuters. No candidate won a majority, so the two are set to meet in a runoff on 25 October. Earlier counts put Bolsonaro ahead 50.94% to 40.97% at more than 24% counted (Yonhap) and 48.10% to 43.91% at 89.58% counted (Hankook Ilbo, citing Reuters).
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Brazil's first-round presidential election was held on 4 October local time, and with 99.99% of votes counted Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party led with 47.03% against 45.16% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Maeil Business reported, citing Reuters. No candidate passed the 50% threshold, so the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October, the paper said. [ 3 ]
The count moved through several stages in the Korean coverage. Yonhap reported that with more than 24% counted, Bolsonaro had 50.94% and Lula 40.97%, an early lead it attributed to votes from urban areas such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro being tallied first. The gap was expected to narrow quickly once results from the northeast, where Lula's support is strong, were added, Yonhap said. Hankook Ilbo, citing Reuters, later reported 48.10% for Bolsonaro and 43.91% for Lula with 89.58% counted. [ 1 , 2 ]
Behind the two leaders, Yonhap reported author Augusto Cury at 2.94% and Ronaldo Caiado at 2.37%. All three outlets noted that Brazilian election law requires a runoff between the top two candidates if no one wins more than half the votes, and that the runoff is scheduled for 25 October, three weeks after the first round. Yonhap added that Brazil uses electronic vote counting and that the final first-round ranking was expected to emerge by the evening of 4 October. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Maeil Business reported that after the results were announced, Bolsonaro said “Brazil wants change and I am very satisfied with the result,” adding that “the era of the Workers' Party, which Lula founded, is over.” Yonhap described Bolsonaro as a senator of the Liberal Party, and Maeil Business described Lula as the Workers' Party (PT) candidate and president. [ 1 , 3 ]
Maeil Business reported that Lula's weaker-than-expected showing was attributed to accumulated economic and social problems, including high living costs, rising household debt and public security concerns. It said Bolsonaro courted voters disappointed with the Lula government's economic record by pledging austerity and a return to fiscal soundness. Friendly relations with the Donald Trump administration also helped consolidate conservative support, the paper said, noting that Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and is called “Brazil's Trump,” and that many Latin American leaders have aligned with Trump while Lula has repeatedly pushed back and warned against interference in Brazil's domestic affairs. [ 3 ]
Reuters was cited by Maeil Business as saying the result would “energize” Bolsonaro's campaign and have a positive effect on Brazil's currency and stock market. Yonhap, Hankook Ilbo and Maeil Business all noted that pre-election polls had consistently shown Lula ahead. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
Brazil's presidential election will be decided in a 25 October runoff after pre-election polls had consistently pointed to a Lula win. Maeil Business tied the outcome to voter discontent over living costs, household debt and security, and to Bolsonaro's pledges of austerity, and cited Reuters as saying the result could affect Brazil's currency and stock market.
Key facts
- Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on 4 October local time, and no candidate won a majority, so the top two go to a runoff. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- With 99.99% of votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro had 47.03% and Lula 45.16%, according to Maeil Business, citing Reuters. [ 3 ]
- Yonhap reported that with more than 24% counted, Bolsonaro led Lula 50.94% to 40.97%, with urban areas such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro counted first. [ 1 ]
- Hankook Ilbo, citing Reuters, reported that with 89.58% counted Bolsonaro had 48.10% and Lula 43.91%. [ 2 ]
- Yonhap reported author Augusto Cury at 2.94% and Ronaldo Caiado at 2.37% behind the two leaders. [ 1 ]
- Under Brazilian election law, a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no one wins more than half the votes; it is scheduled for 25 October. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Pre-election polls had consistently shown Lula ahead, according to all three outlets. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Bolsonaro is a senator of the Liberal Party and Lula is the incumbent president and the Workers' Party (PT) candidate. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on 4 October local time and no candidate won a majority, putting the top two into a runoff. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro was leading Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the vote count. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Brazilian election law requires a runoff between the top two candidates if no one wins more than half the votes, and the runoff is scheduled for 25 October. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Pre-election polls had consistently shown Lula ahead. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Bolsonaro is a senator of the Liberal Party and Lula is the incumbent president and the Workers' Party (PT) candidate. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- The final, certified first-round result. The documents report counts at different stages — more than 24%, 89.58% and 99.99% — and none states an official final declaration; Maeil Business's 99.99% figure is the closest to complete.
- Why Lula performed below the polls despite leading them. Maeil Business attributes it to living costs, household debt and security concerns, but this is a single outlet's analysis and the other documents give no reasons.
- Bolsonaro's relationship to former president Jair Bolsonaro and the effect of ties with the Trump administration on the vote. Reported only by Maeil Business, a single source.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yonhap reports that with more than 24% of votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 50.94% to 40.97%, with urban areas counted first and the northeast yet to be added. [ 1 ]
- Hankook Ilbo, citing Reuters, reports that with 89.58% counted Bolsonaro has 48.10% and Lula 43.91%, making a 25 October runoff likely. [ 2 ]
- Maeil Business reports that with 99.99% counted Bolsonaro has 47.03% and Lula 45.16%, that Bolsonaro said Brazil wants change and the Workers' Party era is over, and that analysts attribute Lula's showing to discontent over living costs, household debt and security. [ 3 ]