Trump denies low-approval polls, urges MAGA base to vote in US midterms
In short
US President Donald Trump said on 4 October that opinion polls “always underestimate MAGA” and urged his supporters to vote in the midterm elections, writing “I am on the ballot.” He cited Republican strategist Dick Morris, who relayed pollster Jim McLaughlin’s finding of 49% approval, while Yonhap noted the New York Times polling average puts his approval at 37% and disapproval at 61%. Newsis reported the elections are four weeks away and that Trump’s approval has not recovered.
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US President Donald Trump said on 4 October that opinion polls “always underestimate MAGA” and urged his base to turn out in the midterm elections, Yonhap, Chosun Ilbo and Newsis reported. In a post on his Truth Social account he wrote, “I am on the ballot,” which Yonhap read as an appeal to supporters to vote as though he were a candidate. Yonhap reported that he made the post while denying surveys showing his approval at record lows amid high fuel and consumer prices. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Trump wrote that pollsters “tried to suppress voting” but that he had won seven battleground states, the national vote, 86% of counties and 99% of this year’s primary races, Chosun Ilbo and Yonhap reported. Yonhap noted that before the 2024 presidential election polls showed a very close race with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, while the count gave Trump the lead. [ 1 , 2 ]
Trump also quoted Republican election strategist Dick Morris, a former adviser to Democratic president Bill Clinton, who relayed figures from Jim McLaughlin, a pollster who has long conducted internal surveys for Trump’s campaigns. According to the post, McLaughlin’s monthly surveys since November 2025 put Trump’s approval at 47–50%, with 49% this month, and the generic congressional ballot at 50% for Democrats and 48% for Republicans. Morris was quoted as saying those numbers were enough for Republicans to keep the House, since the party has historically done well when the Democratic lead is under four points. [ 1 ]
Yonhap noted that the 49% figure Trump relayed differs widely from the polling averages commonly cited by US media. The New York Times polling average at the time showed Trump’s approval at 37% and disapproval at 61%, it reported. [ 1 ]
Newsis reported that the midterm elections were four weeks away and that Trump’s approval had not recovered. It published a photograph of Trump speaking at the Choctaw Event Center in Durant, Oklahoma, on 1 October. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
The appeal comes about four weeks before US midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake, and is aimed at the president’s core supporters rather than the wider electorate. It also sets Trump’s own polling claims against the averages US media commonly cite, a gap the documents leave unresolved. The outcome matters well beyond the United States given the reach of US election results.
Key facts
- Trump posted on Truth Social on 4 October that polls always underestimate MAGA and urged his base to vote in the midterm elections. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- He said he won seven battleground states, the national vote, 86% of counties and 99% of this year’s primary races. [ 1 , 2 ]
- He wrote “I am on the ballot,” which Yonhap read as urging supporters to vote as if he were a candidate. [ 1 ]
- He quoted Republican strategist Dick Morris citing pollster Jim McLaughlin’s surveys: approval of 47–50% since November 2025, 49% this month, and a generic ballot of Democrats 50% to Republicans 48%. [ 1 ]
- Yonhap noted the New York Times polling average showed Trump’s approval at 37% and disapproval at 61%, far from the figure he cited. [ 1 ]
- Newsis reported the midterm elections are four weeks away and that Trump’s approval has not recovered. [ 3 ]
- Newsis published a photo of Trump speaking at the Choctaw Event Center in Durant, Oklahoma, on 1 October. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Trump posted on Truth Social on 4 October that polls always underestimate MAGA and called on his base to vote in the midterm elections. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Trump listed seven battleground states, the national vote, 86% of counties and 99% of this year’s primaries as results he had won. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Trump wrote “I am on the ballot.” [ 1 ]
Still unclear
- Whether Trump’s cited 49% approval figure is accurate. Yonhap is the only document giving the figure from McLaughlin’s survey, and it also cites a New York Times polling average of 37% approval and 61% disapproval, which it says differs widely; the other documents do not mention polling numbers.
- Trump’s stated election results — seven battleground states, 86% of counties and 99% of primaries. These are reported as Trump’s own assertions in his post; the documents do not independently verify them.
- The exact date of the midterm elections. Newsis says only that they are four weeks away; no document gives the polling date.