Trump says US will not attack Iran before Nov 3 midterms; US sanctions 17 vessels

US President Donald Trump said in a social media post on October 8 that the US and Iran are holding "productive" talks and that the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 congressional midterm elections, Xinhua and China News Service reported. In the post, Trump said Iran's economy and military were in "very bad" shape and that the US would keep up its blockade while large amounts of oil were moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but that "we will not attack Iran at any time before the US midterm elections on November 3". [ 3 , 5 , 6 ]

Later on October 8, the US Treasury announced a new round of sanctions on Iran covering 17 vessels that carry Iranian crude oil, oil products and petrochemicals. Treasury officials said the US estimates that about 20 million barrels of Iranian crude remain on ships outside the area of the US blockade of Iranian ports. An official said Iran has stopped loading and unloading crude tankers because of the blockade and sanctions. [ 2 , 5 ]

A day before Trump's statement, Axios reported, citing several US officials, that the Pentagon had instructed US Central Command to complete within days the preparations for resuming large-scale military operations against Iran, according to Xinhua. The report said the directive gave no date for strikes and that Trump had not made a final decision, and cited US and Israeli sources as saying action could come before the US midterms or before Israel's parliamentary election in late October. China News Service reported that sources expected any such operation to involve large-scale bombing of Iran's energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear targets, and that Trump's national security team had discussed the issue at a meeting at Camp David last week. [ 3 , 5 ]

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on October 8 that indirect talks with the US are continuing through mediators. According to China News Service, Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, has received the US response and will reply within days. Revolutionary Guards commander Vahidi (瓦希迪) said the force is in full combat readiness to respond to any threat from the US and Israel, and called the Strait of Hormuz Iran's strategic red line. [ 3 , 5 ]

Li Zixin (李子昕), a Middle East specialist at the China Institute of International Studies, told China News Service that a full resumption of fighting is unlikely for now but cannot be ruled out, and that the probability may rise significantly after the midterms. He said a large-scale strike before the election is unlikely but local escalation is possible, and that the talks face structural obstacles over the nuclear issue, passage through the strait, sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets. [ 4 , 5 ]