SpaceX third-quarter revenue beats forecasts and AI-linked tech stocks rebound
In short
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier and above the $12.8 billion analysts expected. Chinese outlets said the result, along with news from Anthropic and Nvidia, helped AI-related stocks rebound after recent weakness. Elon Musk also said a committee is discussing a merger with Tesla.
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SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier and above the $12.8 billion analysts expected, according to Yicai and Jiemian. Yicai said SpaceX shares rose 5% after hours. Jiemian put the after-hours gain at nearly 8%, and IT Home reported the stock rose 7.8%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Jiemian gave a breakdown. Revenue from the superintelligence business reached $7.56 billion, up 830% and 20% above the $6.3 billion analysts expected, making it the largest revenue source for the first time. The connectivity business, Starlink, took in $5.248 billion, up 69%. Capital spending was $19.59 billion, against $6.88 billion a year earlier. Jiemian also said SpaceX's chief financial officer forecast first-quarter revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion, against an analyst average of $22.2 billion. [ 2 ]
On the earnings call, Musk said annualised recurring revenue could reach $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, according to Jiemian. IT Home said he expected it to exceed $500 billion. Jiemian said Musk confirmed SpaceX and Tesla have set up a committee to discuss a merger. IT Home said he described such a deal as a record in size for a corporate merger. It put Tesla's market value at about $1.5 trillion and SpaceX's at about $2 trillion, and said the deal would draw regulatory scrutiny even with shareholder support. [ 2 , 3 ]
Yicai reported that US indices ended mixed on Tuesday the 20th. The Dow rose 529.85 points, or 1.02%, to 52,495.88, the Nasdaq fell 6.07 points to 26,424.82 and the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57. Yicai said strong earnings and lower oil prices offset recent weakness in AI-related shares. Most large technology stocks fell, the Philadelphia semiconductor index lost 0.29% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index rose 0.68%. Yicai said Elice's fall of more than 30% on its first trading day hurt tech sentiment early in the session. [ 1 ]
IT Home, citing the Wall Street Journal, said news from Musk, Anthropic and Nvidia revived investor enthusiasm. It reported the Nasdaq up 1.1%, the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Dow up 0.7%. Anthropic's draft prospectus showed first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion, and Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang spoke at a conference in Berlin about the Vera Rubin system. IT Home added that the market had not fully shed its doubts, as CoreWeave fell 0.5% on Wednesday and is down nearly 30% this month. [ 3 ]
In China, Jiemian said the results lifted AI-computing stocks. On 21 October, as of 11:21, the CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen cloud computing index, which is the benchmark of the Huitianfu (汇添富) cloud computing ETF, was up more than 1%. Jiemian also reported that DeepSeek had open-sourced its internal inference framework DeepInfer. [ 2 ]
Why it matters
The outlets describe the results as easing investor worry about the sustainability of AI spending, though IT Home notes that concern has not fully gone. Yicai quotes a Direxion executive saying results from large cloud companies in the coming weeks will be the next test for AI-related stocks.
Key facts
- SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year on year, against analyst expectations of $12.8 billion. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Jiemian reported that SpaceX's superintelligence business earned $7.56 billion in the quarter, up 830%, and became the company's largest revenue source for the first time. [ 2 ]
- Musk said on the earnings call that SpaceX's annualised recurring revenue could reach $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, per Jiemian; IT Home reported he expected it to exceed $500 billion. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have set up a committee to discuss a merger, per Jiemian. [ 2 ]
- On the US session of Tuesday the 20th, Yicai reported the Dow up 1.02% to 52,495.88, the Nasdaq down 0.02% and the S&P 500 up 0.28%. [ 1 ]
- Anthropic's draft prospectus showed first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion, per IT Home citing the Wall Street Journal. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Elice, a South Korean AI company, fell more than 30% on its first trading day, Yicai reported. [ 1 , 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- SpaceX's third-quarter revenue was $14.58 billion, up 161% year on year and above the $12.8 billion analysts expected. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Musk gave a 2027 year-end annualised recurring revenue outlook of at least $500 billion on the SpaceX earnings call and discussed a possible merger with Tesla. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Anthropic's first-half 2026 revenue was reported as about $16.3 billion. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Elice's market debut was poor, and the outlets tie it to concern about AI-related stocks. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- How much SpaceX shares rose after the results. Yicai said 5% after hours, Jiemian said nearly 8% in Tuesday after-hours trading, and IT Home said 7.8%.
- When SpaceX released the results. Yicai places the release after the close on the 20th; Jiemian dates it to 21 October local time while also citing Tuesday after-hours trading.
- Whether a SpaceX-Tesla merger will happen. Jiemian says a committee is discussing it, and IT Home says the deal would still face regulatory review even with shareholder backing.
- Which index moves apply to which session. Yicai reports a flat Nasdaq on the 20th, while IT Home, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports the Nasdaq up 1.1% and does not give the same session date.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yicai published its report on the US close and SpaceX's after-hours gain. [ 1 ]
- The CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen cloud computing index was up more than 1%, per Jiemian. [ 2 ]
- Jiemian published its report on the SpaceX results and the AI-stock rebound. [ 2 ]
- IT Home published its report on 22 October. [ 3 ]