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South Korea's 2026 rice output forecast to fall 0.6% to 3.518 million tonnes
En breve
South Korea's 2026 rice production is forecast at 3,518,000 tonnes, down 21,000 tonnes or 0.6% from 3,539,000 tonnes last year, according to a survey the national data agency (Gukga Deiteocheo, 국가데이터처) released on October 8. The agency's figures put the rice cultivation area at 670,000 hectares, down 1.1%, while yield per 10 ares is expected to rise 0.5% to 525 kg.
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South Korea's rice production this year is forecast at 3,518,000 tonnes, according to the 2026 rice production forecast survey released on October 8 by the national data agency (Gukga Deiteocheo, 국가데이터처). That is 21,000 tonnes, or 0.6%, less than last year's 3,539,000 tonnes. The forecast applies a milling rate of 92.4%; Newsis reported that applying the adjusted rate of 90.4%, which reflects actual distribution, gives an estimate of 3,424,000 tonnes. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The outlets attribute the decline to a smaller cultivation area. Rice was grown on 670,000 hectares this year, down 1.1% from 678,000 hectares. Yonhap reported that this is the smallest area since statistics began, and that output would fall for a fifth consecutive year, from 2022, to the lowest level since 2020, when it was 3,507,000 tonnes. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The cultivation area has been shrinking under policies to balance rice supply and demand. Newsis cited a proper-production policy, and Yonhap cited strategic-crop direct payments and a programme to convert paddies to other crops. According to Newsis, the area fell from 732,000 hectares in 2021 to 727,000 in 2022, 708,000 in 2023, 698,000 in 2024 and 678,000 in 2025, while production fell from 3,882,000 tonnes in 2021 to 3,764,000, 3,702,000, 3,585,000 and 3,539,000 tonnes over the same years. [ 1 , 3 ]
Yield per 10 ares is expected to rise 0.5% to 525 kg from 522 kg. The agency said that, compared with last year, when frequent rain led to heavy pest and disease damage, weather during the tillering and grain-formation stages was favourable, raising the number of ears per plant and grains per ear, and that sunshine during the September ripening period was sufficient. [ 1 , 3 ]
By region, Jeonnam-Gwangju is expected to produce the most rice, 738,000 tonnes, followed by South Chungcheong (689,000 tonnes), North Jeolla (533,000 tonnes), North Gyeongsang (470,000 tonnes), Gyeonggi (361,000 tonnes), South Gyeongsang (312,000 tonnes) and North Chungcheong (162,000 tonnes), Newsis reported. [ 1 ]
Por qué importa
Yonhap reported that the forecast would mark a fifth straight annual decline and the smallest harvest since 2020, with the cultivation area the smallest since records began. The outlets link the shrinking area to government policies aimed at balancing rice supply and demand.
Datos clave
- 2026 rice production is forecast at 3,518,000 tonnes, down 21,000 tonnes (0.6%) from 3,539,000 tonnes in 2025. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Rice cultivation area is put at 670,000 hectares, down 1.1% from 678,000 hectares. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Expected yield per 10 ares is 525 kg, up 0.5% from 522 kg. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Yonhap reported that output would fall for a fifth consecutive year and be the lowest since 2020 (3,507,000 tonnes). [ 3 ]
- Yonhap reported that this year's cultivation area is the smallest since statistics began. [ 3 ]
- Jeonnam-Gwangju is expected to produce the most rice, 738,000 tonnes, followed by South Chungcheong with 689,000 tonnes. [ 1 ]
Confirmado por varias fuentes
- The national data agency released its 2026 rice production forecast survey on October 8. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Rice output is forecast at 3,518,000 tonnes, 0.6% lower than last year. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- The rice cultivation area is 670,000 hectares, down 1.1%, and the smaller area is the reason for the lower output. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Yield per 10 ares is expected to rise 0.5% to 525 kg because of favourable weather during tillering and grain formation and enough sunshine in September. [ 1 , 3 ]
Aún sin aclarar
- Newsis gives the drop in cultivation area as 2,000 hectares, which does not match its own figures of 678,000 and 670,000 hectares. An internal inconsistency in one report; the other outlets give only the 1.1% decline.
- How much rice will actually reach the market. Only Newsis gives the adjusted-milling-rate estimate of 3,424,000 tonnes; the figures are forecasts from a survey, not final harvest data.