TrendForce: Apple's iPhone Duo to ship about 5 million, 24.8% of foldable phones in 2026

TrendForce estimated that global foldable phone shipments will grow slightly, by 0.5%, in 2026. Within that, Apple's first folding iPhone, the iPhone Duo, is forecast to ship about 5 million units, giving it about 24.8% market share in its first year on sale. TrendForce said that with the overall market close to flat, Apple's entry will speed the redistribution of brand market share. IT Home reported that TrendForce published the report on October 28. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 8 ]

IT Home reported that the iPhone Duo went on sale on October 23 from 15,999 yuan. It said Apple's website showed some orders delayed to January 2027 less than a week after preorders opened. Huxiu reported that an Apple store at Yitian Holiday Plaza in Shenzhen had no stock on October 28 and that online preorders were expected to be filled at the end of January 2027. A blogger, @RD观测, said sales in the first period, launch day plus three days, were close to 200,000 units; IT Home marked this as third-party data for reference only. [ 3 , 4 , 7 ]

TrendForce said early user feedback was mixed. Split-screen use and the look of the display when unfolded were praised, while black borders in apps, the button layout and fingerprint unlock added adaptation costs. It said reports of damaged screens and high repair quotes pointed attention to reliability and ownership cost. Huxiu cited Apple's China website as listing an out-of-warranty inner-screen repair at 7,998 yuan without the 2,599 yuan two-year AppleCare+ plan. [ 3 , 4 ]

Huxiu reported that early users described a stiff hinge and an inner screen cracking along the crease or showing display faults after several openings. It said Apple replied on October 27 that it had noticed a very small number of inner-screen problems and advised contacting AppleCare for a replacement. A store said it had met no returns for cracked inner screens and had received no recall notice. Huxiu cited an iFixit report of October 25 saying that in a pressure test the central support bar of the hinge could not fully move away, creating a stress point in the middle of the screen. TrendForce analyst Zhou Shibo (周诗博) said that if the central support does not retreat enough, extra contact and stress concentration form, an inference drawn from recent teardown analysis. TrendForce said Apple has offered replacements for a small number of devices with inner-screen faults and expects engineering work to focus on hinge travel, support height, fit precision and assembly tolerance. [ 3 , 4 , 8 ]

Huxiu also reported on demand and supply. One supply-chain source said customers had added more than 2 million units of orders. Another said the full-year target of 6 million was raised to 8 to 10 million. The securities department of Lansi Technology (蓝思科技) said production was at full capacity, and that of Gongye Fulian (工业富联) said production and orders were normal. Counterpoint Research's Liz Lee said demand was strong at launch but supply was limited, making true demand hard to judge. She said that if the quality problems do not spread, a clear hit to sales is not expected, while persistent problems could hurt consumer confidence and raise returns. [ 4 ]