Can Xue and Anne Carson lead betting before 2026 Nobel literature prize announcement
In short
The Swedish Academy was set to name the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature winner on October 8 at 1 p.m. local time (8 p.m. in Korea). Korean outlets reported that Chinese writer Can Xue leads betting markets, with The Guardian reporting her level with Canadian poet Anne Carson at 10-1 at Ladbrokes, and Haruki Murakami at 14-1. Several outlets pointed to non-European women writers after nine years of laureates alternating between men and women.
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The Swedish Academy was scheduled to announce the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature on October 8 at 1 p.m. local time, 8 p.m. in Korea, Newsis, Korea Economic Daily and Asia Economy reported. Korea Economic Daily said the announcement would be streamed live on the Nobel Prize's official digital channels. The academy does not disclose candidates, and nomination lists and deliberations are sealed for 50 years, the outlets said. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Chinese experimental writer Can Xue, whose real name is Deng Xiaohua and who is known as 'China's Kafka', leads betting markets. Newsis said she ranks first on British aggregator Nicer Odds, with Japan's Haruki Murakami second. Korea Economic Daily, citing Nicer Odds, reported her odds at 5.00 at one bookmaker and 11.00 at Ladbrokes, the lowest level among the main bookmakers tracked. Citing The Guardian, Korea Economic Daily and Asia Economy said Can Xue and Canadian poet Anne Carson were joint favourites at Ladbrokes at 10-1, followed by Murakami at 14-1 and Gerald Murnane and Thomas Pynchon at 16-1. Seoul Economic Daily instead put Murakami second and Cristina Rivera Garza third at Ladbrokes. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Seoul Economic Daily and Asia Economy noted that the academy has alternated between male and female laureates for nine years, from Kazuo Ishiguro in 2017 to Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai in 2025, which led to expectations of a female winner this year. Seoul Economic Daily said there is also speculation of a winner from outside Europe, particularly Latin America, which has had no laureate since Mario Vargas Llosa in 2010. [ 3 , 4 ]
Mexican writer Rivera Garza, who won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in the memoir category for a book about her sister's murder, is cited as fitting those conditions. Asia Economy said some real-time prediction markets showed her chances rising sharply on October 8. Caribbean-born American writer Jamaica Kincaid received the Mermaid award at Sweden's Gothenburg Book Fair, and Swedish public radio ran a September book club on her novels, Asia Economy reported. Margaret Atwood topped a September reader poll by Korean online bookstore Yes24, Seoul Economic Daily said. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
Other names mentioned include Enrique Vila-Matas, Lídia Jorge, Mircea Cărtărescu, Amitav Ghosh, César Aira, Raúl Zurita, Michel Houellebecq, Salman Rushdie, Lyudmila Ulitskaya, Samanta Schweblin, Mariana Enríquez and Alexis Wright. Newsis said Korean publishers have been releasing translations of candidates' works ahead of the announcement. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Why it matters
The academy does not publish candidates, so betting odds and literary-world speculation shape expectations before the announcement. Newsis noted that Korean publishers have been releasing translations of candidates' works ahead of the announcement.
Key facts
- The Swedish Academy was to announce the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature on October 8 at 1 p.m. local time, 8 p.m. Korean time. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
- Can Xue, whose real name is Deng Xiaohua and who is called 'China's Kafka', leads betting aggregator Nicer Odds. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
- According to The Guardian, Can Xue and Anne Carson were joint favourites at Ladbrokes at 10-1, followed by Haruki Murakami at 14-1 and Gerald Murnane and Thomas Pynchon at 16-1. [ 2 , 4 ]
- Laureates have alternated between men and women for nine years, ending with Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai in 2025. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza, winner of a 2024 Pulitzer Prize in the memoir category, and Caribbean-born American writer Jamaica Kincaid are cited as non-European women contenders. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
- Nomination lists and deliberations are kept sealed for 50 years. [ 2 , 4 ]
- The prize has been awarded 118 times since 1901. [ 1 , 4 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature was to be announced on October 8 at 8 p.m. Korean time. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
- Can Xue is the betting favourite. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The Guardian reported Can Xue and Anne Carson joint first at Ladbrokes at 10-1, with Murakami at 14-1. [ 2 , 4 ]
- Last year's laureate was Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Male and female writers have won in alternate years since 2017. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Cristina Rivera Garza won a 2024 Pulitzer Prize. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
- Jamaica Kincaid recently received the Mermaid award at the Gothenburg Book Fair in Sweden. [ 3 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- Who ranks behind Can Xue at Ladbrokes. Seoul Economic Daily puts Murakami second and Rivera Garza third at Ladbrokes, while Korea Economic Daily and Asia Economy, citing The Guardian, put Anne Carson joint first with Can Xue.
- How many people have received the prize. Newsis says 112 laureates with four shared awards; Asia Economy says 122 people, 18 of them women.
- Who wins. All documents were published before the announcement.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Newsis reports Can Xue first and Murakami second on Nicer Odds. [ 1 ]
- Korea Economic Daily reports Can Xue and Anne Carson joint favourites at Ladbrokes, citing The Guardian. [ 2 ]
- Asia Economy highlights non-European women writers and late movement for Rivera Garza in prediction markets. [ 4 ]
- Scheduled announcement of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature (Korean time). [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]