TrendForce forecasts VCSEL demand reaching 650 million units by 2031
In short
TrendForce forecasts that demand for VCSELs could reach 650 million units in 2031, growing at a compound annual rate of 38% from 2025 to 2031, according to its latest report on infrared sensing and optical communication. TrendForce said fast-growing demand for Scale-Up network transmission inside data centres is drawing attention to VCSEL NPO, with Lumentum, Furukawa Electric, Coherent, Broadcom, ams OSRAM and HiSilicon all doing research and development.
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TrendForce forecasts that VCSEL market demand could reach 650 million units in 2031, according to its latest report, '2027 Infrared Sensing and Optical Communication Market Trends', which CLS and Jiemian reported on October 8 and Yicai also carried. Jiemian and Yicai said TrendForce puts the compound annual growth rate for 2025-2031 at 38%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
TrendForce said the demand for Scale-Up network transmission inside data centres is growing fast, and that VCSEL NPO is drawing attention because it combines low power consumption, flexible maintenance and a relatively mature supply chain. It named Lumentum, Furukawa Electric, Coherent, Broadcom, ams OSRAM and HiSilicon as major manufacturers all doing research and development. TrendForce expects many VCSEL NPO solutions to come to market from 2027-2028, which, together with demand for short-distance optical transceiver modules, underpins its forecast. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The forecast links VCSEL demand growth to data-centre networking, where TrendForce expects many VCSEL NPO solutions to appear from 2027-2028. Three Chinese business outlets carried the projection, which names several major manufacturers, including HiSilicon, as working on the technology.
Key facts
- TrendForce forecasts VCSEL market demand could reach 650 million units in 2031. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- TrendForce puts the compound annual growth rate for 2025-2031 at 38%. [ 2 , 3 ]
- The forecast comes from TrendForce's latest report, '2027 Infrared Sensing and Optical Communication Market Trends'. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- TrendForce said VCSEL NPO is drawing attention for its low power consumption, flexible maintenance and relatively mature supply chain. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Lumentum, Furukawa Electric, Coherent, Broadcom, ams OSRAM and HiSilicon are all doing research and development on VCSEL NPO, according to TrendForce. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- TrendForce expects many VCSEL NPO solutions to appear on the market from 2027-2028, adding to demand for short-distance optical transceiver modules. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Nothing is confirmed by two independent outlets yet.
Still unclear
- The 2025 baseline demand figure behind the 38% growth rate. The reports give the 2031 projection and the growth rate but not the starting volume.
- How the forecast was calculated. The reports do not describe TrendForce's method or assumptions.
- TrendForce forecasts VCSEL market demand could reach 650 million units in 2031. Reported by a single source so far
- TrendForce forecasts a 38% compound annual growth rate for VCSEL demand from 2025 to 2031. Reported by a single source so far
- TrendForce names Lumentum, Furukawa Electric, Coherent, Broadcom, ams OSRAM and HiSilicon as major manufacturers doing research and development on VCSEL NPO. Reported by a single source so far