WMO expects El Niño to peak in December as China says super El Niño has formed
In short
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on October 8 that El Niño will strengthen further, peak in December and, with a likelihood close to 100%, last until February 2027, possibly as one of the strongest events since at least 1950. On October 9 China's National Climate Center said a super El Niño event of the eastern type formed in September 2026 and is expected to become the strongest since systematic monitoring began.
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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on October 8 in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update that El Niño will strengthen further and is expected to peak in December. It put the likelihood that the event lasts until February 2027 at close to 100% and said it could become one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach record levels from October to December. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
According to CLS, the WMO expects sea surface temperatures in El Niño's core region to be 3.7°C (6.7°F) above normal in October to December. Xinhua reported that the temperature anomaly index for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August, and could reach a record of about 3.7°C in October to December. [ 1 , 3 ]
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño was firmly established and strengthening rapidly, Jiemian reported. Xinhua quoted her as explaining that El Niño does not add new heat to the planet but releases heat stored in the ocean, and that the ocean it draws heat from is the warmest on record, so there is more heat available to release. [ 2 , 3 ]
The WMO said El Niño will affect the global economy, ecosystems and communities and increase the risk of drought and floods in different regions. Xinhua reported that it is likely to push temperatures above average in most parts of the world and alter rainfall patterns. Xinhua also carried a photo of a cracked lake bed in Polonnaruwa, Sri Lanka, taken on September 5, saying El Niño had caused severe drought in several parts of Sri Lanka. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
On October 9, China's National Climate Center said monitoring showed a super El Niño event formed in September 2026, China News Service reported, citing the centre's WeChat account. The centre said the central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered an El Niño state in May 2026. The three-month running mean of the Niño3.4 index has exceeded 0.5°C for five consecutive months, and the July to September mean exceeded 2.5°C, meeting the super-event standard under China's national method GB/T 33666-2017. The September index was 2.94°C, up 0.35°C from August, and the warm centre in the eastern Pacific was more than 3.0°C above normal. The centre classified the event as the eastern type. [ 5 , 7 ]
The National Climate Center expects sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to keep rising over the next three months and peak in late autumn and early winter, and said the event will become the strongest El Niño since systematic monitoring began. The WMO, by comparison, described it as possibly one of the strongest since at least 1950. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 7 ]
IT Home, citing CCTV News, added that average sea surface temperatures off China's coast from January to May were 0.52°C above the 1991 to 2020 average for the same period, which it said threatens marine ecology and the safety of mariculture. [ 4 ]
Why it matters
The WMO said the strengthening El Niño will affect the global economy, ecosystems and communities and raise the risk of drought and floods in different regions. Xinhua reported it is likely to push temperatures above average across most of the world and change rainfall patterns. IT Home noted that higher-than-normal sea temperatures off China's coast threaten marine ecology and mariculture.
Key facts
- The WMO expects El Niño to strengthen further and peak in December, according to its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update released on October 8. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The WMO puts the likelihood that El Niño lasts until February 2027 at close to 100%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The WMO said the event could be one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach record levels in October to December, around 3.7°C above normal. [ 1 , 3 ]
- China's National Climate Center said a super El Niño event formed in September 2026, of the eastern type, with the warm centre in the eastern equatorial Pacific. [ 5 , 7 ]
- The Niño3.4 index was 2.94°C in September, up 0.35°C from August, and averaged 2.54°C over July to September, meeting China's super-event standard. [ 7 ]
- The National Climate Center expects this El Niño to become the strongest since systematic monitoring began, peaking in late autumn and early winter. [ 5 , 7 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The WMO expects El Niño to peak in December. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The WMO puts the probability of El Niño persisting until February 2027 at close to 100%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The WMO said this El Niño could be among the strongest since at least 1950. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach record levels from October to December. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The WMO expects the temperature anomaly in El Niño's core region to reach about 3.7°C in October to December. [ 1 , 3 ]
- China's National Climate Center said a super El Niño event formed in September 2026. [ 5 , 7 ]
- The National Climate Center expects sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to keep rising over the next three months and the event to become the strongest since systematic monitoring began. [ 5 , 7 ]
Still unclear
- How strong the event will be relative to past El Niño events. The WMO said it could be one of the strongest since at least 1950, while China's National Climate Center said it will become the strongest since systematic monitoring began.
- Specific effects of this El Niño on China. Only IT Home, citing CCTV News, mentioned higher coastal sea temperatures and a threat to mariculture; the other documents do not describe effects on China.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- October 8: CLS reports the WMO's monthly climate bulletin forecasting a stronger El Niño lasting until February 2027. [ 1 ]
- October 8: Jiemian reports the WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update and comments by Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. [ 2 ]
- October 8: Xinhua reports the UN warning that El Niño will peak in December. [ 3 ]
- October 8: IT Home, citing CCTV News, reports the WMO forecast. [ 4 ]
- October 9: CLS reports the National Climate Center's finding that a super El Niño has formed. [ 5 ]
- October 9: China News Service publishes the National Climate Center's monitoring details. [ 7 ]