Nobel Peace Prize to be announced in Oslo as prediction markets weigh contenders
In short
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday in Oslo, with nominations received for 287 candidates, the Associated Press reported. On Polymarket and Kalshi, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms led the odds, Newsweek reported, while Bloomberg said bets for Yulia Navalnaya surged overnight on Polymarket. U.S. President Donald Trump, who has openly lobbied for the prize, said it would be a "great discredit" if he does not win, PBS NewsHour reported.
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The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday in Oslo, Norway, the Associated Press reported. PBS NewsHour said live coverage of the announcement was expected to begin at 4:50 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 9. According to AP, the Norwegian Nobel Committee received nominations for 287 candidates for this year's prize, and just over a quarter of them are organizations. Experts say the committee typically focuses on the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals, AP reported. [ 2 , 3 ]
Newsweek reported that as of Thursday morning, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a network providing humanitarian aid to people affected by the country's civil war, led with 17 percent on Polymarket and 16 percent on Kalshi. Polymarket listed Ukrainian children's rights advocate Mykola Kuleba at 9 percent, Save the Children at 8 percent and Yulia Navalnaya, a Russian opposition activist and the widow of Alexei Navalny, at 5 percent; Kalshi gave Kuleba 10 percent. Pope Leo XIV stood at 2 percent on both platforms, on par with Doctors Without Borders and the International Criminal Court, and above Trump at 1 percent. [ 1 ]
Bloomberg reported that bets for Navalnaya surged overnight on Polymarket, echoing similar events a year ago when a website hacking likely leaked the winner's name. AP said prognosticators list possible contenders including the International Space Station, emergency teams in Sudan, children's advocates in Ukraine and two top international courts, and that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has attracted attention in prediction markets. [ 3 , 4 ]
Newsweek said it is not known whether Pope Leo is an official nominee, as the Nobel Committee keeps nominations confidential for 50 years. According to Newsweek, the pontiff has made world peace a central theme of his papacy, offered the Vatican as a venue for negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pursue a ceasefire in Gaza and has been critical of Trump's war in Iran. [ 1 ]
PBS NewsHour reported that Trump had openly lobbied for the prize, claiming he had ended multiple wars, and told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday that it would be a "great discredit" if he does not win. AP said Trump, who is waging a war against Iran, has long coveted the prize and repeatedly said he deserves it. [ 2 , 3 ]
Last year's prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her struggle to achieve a democratic transition in her country. PBS NewsHour said she gave her prize to Trump in January; AP said she gave him her Nobel medal shortly after the United States ousted then-President Nicolás Maduro, calling it largely a symbolic gesture. The Nobel Committee's policy states that a prize "cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others," PBS NewsHour reported. [ 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The award is often considered the most prestigious on the planet, according to AP, and Trump has repeatedly said he deserves it. Bloomberg linked the overnight betting surge to events a year ago, when a website hacking likely leaked the winner's name.
Key facts
- The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is to be announced on Friday in Oslo, Norway. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee received nominations for 287 candidates, just over a quarter of them organizations, AP reported. [ 3 ]
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms led with 17 percent on Polymarket and 16 percent on Kalshi as of Thursday morning, Newsweek reported. [ 1 ]
- Pope Leo XIV was at 2 percent and Trump at 1 percent on both platforms, according to Newsweek. [ 1 ]
- Bets for Yulia Navalnaya, Alexei Navalny's widow, surged overnight on Polymarket, Bloomberg reported. [ 4 ]
- Last year's winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, gave her prize to Trump, but the Nobel Committee says the prize cannot be transferred. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday it would be a "great discredit" if he does not win, PBS NewsHour reported. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Sudanese emergency response groups and Ukrainian children's advocates are among the possible contenders discussed. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney features among possibilities in prediction markets. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Yulia Navalnaya features in Polymarket betting on the prize. [ 1 , 4 ]
- María Corina Machado won last year's prize and gave it to Trump, though the Nobel Committee says the prize cannot be transferred. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Trump has sought the prize and said he deserves it. [ 2 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether Pope Leo XIV is an official nominee. Newsweek said this is not known because the Nobel Committee keeps nominations confidential for 50 years.
- What lies behind the overnight surge in Polymarket bets for Yulia Navalnaya. Only Bloomberg's summary reports the surge, saying it echoes events a year ago when a website hacking likely leaked the winner's name; it does not say whether a leak occurred this year.
- Who will win the prize. All documents were published before the announcement.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Oct. 8: Newsweek reports Polymarket and Kalshi odds, with Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms leading and Pope Leo XIV at 2 percent. [ 1 ]
- Oct. 8: PBS NewsHour reports Trump told reporters it would be a "great discredit" if he does not win. [ 2 ]
- Oct. 9: AP reports the prize will be announced Friday in Oslo, with 287 candidates nominated. [ 3 ]
- Oct. 9: Bloomberg reports bets for Yulia Navalnaya surged overnight on Polymarket. [ 4 ]
- Oct. 9: Live coverage of the announcement expected to begin, 4:50 a.m. EDT, according to PBS NewsHour. [ 2 ]