OpenAI revenue figure about $20bn below estimates hits Nvidia, Oracle and US tech stocks
In short
OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue reached about $50 billion as of the end of September, roughly $20 billion below figures that had circulated in the market, the Financial Times reported on October 8 local time. US technology shares fell, with the Nasdaq Composite down 1.25%, Nvidia down about 3%, Oracle 5.5% and CoreWeave nearly 8%. AI Times and Maeil Business reported that the gap comes from how revenue is counted, not from weaker business performance.
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OpenAI told investors that its annualised revenue reached about $50 billion as of the end of September, the Financial Times reported on October 8 local time, according to Korean outlets. The figure is about $20 billion below estimates that had circulated in the market, which AI Times and Maeil Business put at $68 billion to $70 billion. Dong-A Ilbo compared it with a market estimate of $68 billion, a gap of $18 billion, while ZDNet Korea cited an expected $70 billion. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
AI Times and Maeil Business reported that the difference comes from how revenue is counted. Anthropic includes revenue generated through cloud providers, which AI Times named as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, while the $50 billion OpenAI gave investors covers only revenue attributable to the company itself, excluding its partners' share. Maeil Business quoted CNBC as saying the earlier figure added partner revenue in order to compare OpenAI directly with Anthropic. ZDNet Korea cited CNBC as saying the $70 billion figure did not come from OpenAI. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
OpenAI also told investors it recorded 77% growth in the third quarter and 107% growth in its enterprise business over the same period. AI Times described the 77% as year-on-year growth in total third-quarter revenue, while Maeil Business, citing CNBC, described it as growth in annualised revenue. [ 2 , 4 ]
On October 8 the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.25% to 27,193.34, which ZDNet Korea and Maeil Business said was its worst day since mid-August. The S&P 500 fell 0.47% to 7,765.36, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10% to 51,231.64, Dong-A Ilbo reported. AI Times said the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%. Maeil Business said both indexes were weak from the start of trading and their declines widened after the FT report. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Nvidia fell about 3%, given as 2.9% by ZDNet Korea, Oracle 5.5% and CoreWeave nearly 8%. Intel fell 5.3% according to ZDNet Korea and Maeil Business and 5.20% according to Dong-A Ilbo; AMD and Broadcom fell about 4% and Super Micro Computer about 5%. Dong-A Ilbo reported that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.39%, TSMC 3%, Micron about 4%, Arm 6.35% and SK hynix's US depositary receipts 4.34%. Maeil Business noted that OpenAI uses Nvidia chips and obtains computing capacity from Oracle and CoreWeave. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Dong-A Ilbo reported that money leaving technology stocks moved into bonds, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 0.05 percentage points to 5.22% after reaching a 24-year high the previous day. [ 3 ]
AI Times reported that OpenAI is seeking further investment under pressure to justify an $852 billion valuation, and is discussing about $30 billion in new funding after raising $122 billion in March. It quoted chief financial officer Sarah Friar as saying the company's capital position remains very solid, and chief executive Sam Altman as saying it is not a wise time to pursue an IPO because of ongoing safety concerns, after the launch of GPT-6.1 Astra (GPT-6.1 아스트라) was withdrawn for failing the company's own safety standards. [ 2 ]
Why it matters
Maeil Business said OpenAI's revenue is treated as an important indicator of investment value across the AI industry, and the companies hit hardest were those linked to its AI infrastructure spending. ZDNet Korea, citing CNBC, said the news could add to investor doubts over whether AI demand will be strong enough to justify the spending on AI infrastructure by companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
Key facts
- OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue reached about $50 billion as of the end of September. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Figures that had circulated in the market put OpenAI's annualised revenue at $68 billion to $70 billion, about $18 billion to $20 billion higher. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Maeil Business and AI Times reported that the earlier figure included revenue earned through partners, matching Anthropic's counting method, while OpenAI's figure counts only its own revenue. [ 2 , 4 ]
- OpenAI reported 77% growth in the third quarter and 107% growth in its enterprise business. [ 2 , 4 ]
- The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.25% on October 8. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
- It was the Nasdaq's worst day since mid-August. [ 1 , 4 ]
- Oracle fell about 5.5% and CoreWeave nearly 8%. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.39%, and SK hynix's US depositary receipts fell 4.34%. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue reached about $50 billion as of the end of September. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The figure is about $20 billion below estimates that had circulated in the market. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The gap reflects a different counting method: Anthropic includes revenue earned through cloud partners, while OpenAI's figure excludes partners' revenue. [ 2 , 4 ]
- OpenAI reported 77% third-quarter growth and 107% growth in its enterprise business. [ 2 , 4 ]
- The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.25%. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
- It was the Nasdaq's worst day since mid-August. [ 1 , 4 ]
- Nvidia fell about 3%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Oracle fell about 5.5% and CoreWeave nearly 8%. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- How large the market estimate and the gap were. Outlets give the earlier estimate as $68 billion, $70 billion or a $68-70 billion range, and the gap as $18 billion or $20 billion.
- Where the $70 billion figure came from. Only ZDNet Korea, citing CNBC, says it did not come from OpenAI and likely arose from investors comparing OpenAI with Anthropic.
- Whether the news reflects weaker performance. ZDNet Korea describes revenue falling well short of expectations, while AI Times and Maeil Business say business performance has not worsened and the gap is a counting difference.
- OpenAI's funding talks, valuation and IPO timing. The $852 billion valuation, $30 billion funding talks, GPT-6.1 Astra withdrawal and Altman's IPO remarks are reported only by AI Times.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- October 9: ZDNet Korea reports OpenAI's revenue fell short of expectations and chip stocks fell. [ 1 ]
- October 9: AI Times reports the roughly $20 billion revision and the counting difference with Anthropic. [ 2 ]
- October 9: Dong-A Ilbo reports US market closing figures and the fall in Treasury yields. [ 3 ]
- October 9: Maeil Business reports declines in AI stocks tied to OpenAI's infrastructure spending. [ 4 ]