Politico: EU faces up to 14 bcm winter gas shortfall as storage hits lowest since 2011
In short
Politico reports, citing the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), that the European Union could face a gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres in the winter of 2026/2027, about 7% of EU demand, according to Russian outlets TASS, Kommersant and RIA Novosti. EU gas storage stands at just over 70%, the lowest pre-winter level since statistics began in 2011. IEEFA says the missing volume is enough to supply 10 to 12 million European households.
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The European Union faces its largest gas shortfall in 15 years this coming winter, Politico reported citing a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), according to TASS, Kommersant and RIA Novosti. The deficit in the winter of 2026/2027 could reach 14 billion cubic metres, or about 7% of EU demand, a volume IEEFA says is enough to supply 10 to 12 million European households. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Gas in EU underground storage stands at just over 70%, the lowest level ahead of winter since statistics began in 2011. RIA Novosti quoted Politico as saying high prices pushed traders to sell gas over the summer rather than hold it for winter. Kommersant reported that gas prices have risen to their highest in four years. [ 2 , 3 ]
IEEFA, which RIA Novosti described as a US institute, attributes the expected shortfall to the continuing disruption of global energy supplies caused by the conflict in the Middle East, Politico wrote. The Politico article says the EU "faces the prospect of a winter gas shortage, which may force it to urgently seek a replacement for lost energy volumes equivalent to the energy consumption of 12 million households", according to RIA Novosti. [ 3 ]
Kommersant reported that an EU-wide ban on long-term contracts for Russian LNG supply, which takes effect in January, will cut gas imports by a further 7 billion cubic metres, according to IEEFA. Importing the missing LNG volumes at current prices would cost European consumers an additional 3 billion euros, 12% more than a year earlier. RIA Novosti's text, which is cut off, says EU gas reserves may fall by 7 billion cubic metres amid the deficit. [ 2 , 3 ]
TASS summarised Politico as saying the situation will force European countries to buy gas at higher prices on "unstable markets". [ 1 ]
Why it matters
A shortfall of 7% of demand would force European countries to buy gas at higher prices, Politico wrote as quoted by TASS. Kommersant reported that importing the missing LNG at current prices would cost European consumers an extra 3 billion euros, and that an EU-wide ban on long-term Russian LNG contracts taking effect in January will cut imports by a further 7 billion cubic metres.
Key facts
- Politico, citing IEEFA, reports the EU could face a gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres in the winter of 2026/2027, about 7% of EU demand. [ 2 , 3 ]
- EU gas storage is at just over 70%, the lowest level since statistics began in 2011. [ 2 , 3 ]
- IEEFA says the missing volume is enough to supply 10 to 12 million European households. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Gas prices have risen to their highest in four years, Kommersant reported. [ 2 ]
- An EU-wide ban on long-term contracts for Russian LNG, taking effect in January, will cut gas imports by a further 7 billion cubic metres, IEEFA notes according to Kommersant. [ 2 ]
- Importing the missing LNG at current prices would cost European consumers an additional 3 billion euros, 12% more than a year earlier, Kommersant reported. [ 2 ]
- High prices pushed traders to sell gas in summer instead of storing it for winter, Politico wrote according to RIA Novosti. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The EU could face a gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic metres this winter, about 7% of EU demand, Politico reports citing IEEFA. [ 2 , 3 ]
- EU gas storage is at about 70%, the lowest since statistics began in 2011. [ 2 , 3 ]
- The shortfall is equivalent to the supply needed for 10 to 12 million European households, according to IEEFA. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Politico describes the shortfall as the largest the EU has faced in 15 years. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether gas reserves will fall by a further 7 billion cubic metres or whether that figure refers to reduced imports. Kommersant says the Russian LNG contract ban will cut imports by 7 billion cubic metres; RIA Novosti's truncated text says reserves may shrink by 7 billion cubic metres amid the deficit.
- The additional 3 billion euro cost and the four-year price high are reported only by Kommersant. Single-source figures not repeated by the other outlets.