Nobel Peace Prize due Oct. 9: ICC and child-aid groups tipped, Trump seen as unlikely

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is to be announced on October 9. Japanese outlets report that humanitarian groups helping children amid the conflicts in Ukraine and Sudan, and the International Criminal Court (ICC), are among those seen as strong candidates. Jiji Press reported that 287 organisations and individuals have been nominated. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]

Mainichi Shimbun reported that the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), which correctly predicted the 2023 award to Iranian women's rights activist Narges Mohammadi, published its latest forecast on September 22, naming five candidates as usual. Jiji Press said PRIO put Save Ukraine, which works to rescue children taken to Russia, and Save the Children at the top. Asahi Shimbun, which interviewed PRIO acting director Hokon Yarebu (ホーコン・ヤーレブ), listed the five picks as Mykola Kuleba (ミコラ・クレバ), who supports children in Ukraine, together with Save the Children; Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms; the Committee to Protect Journalists; the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the ICC; and the International Space Station. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]

The Trump administration has designated ICC President Tomoko Akane and others for sanctions. Jiji Press reported that the administration sees the court's war crimes investigations into US soldiers as a challenge to US sovereignty and has asked member states to withdraw. Both the ICC and the ICJ are headed by Japanese nationals, Jiji said, adding that an award to the ICC would send a strong message on the rule of law and multilateral cooperation but would likely harden Trump's stance. [ 1 , 2 ]

Sankei Shimbun reported that Trump told reporters at the White House on October 7 that he had "resolved eight wars" and "saved millions of lives", and that it would be "a big disgrace" for the Norwegian Nobel Committee if he were not chosen. He said he did not know how the committee would decide, suggesting it may have a reputation for not giving the prize to people like him. Mainichi said experts widely see his chances as low, partly because he has been at war with Iran since the end of February; Jiji said his selection is seen as almost impossible while US military operations against Iran continue. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]

Last year's prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Machado. Jiji Press reported that she later gave her medal to Trump to win his favour, which drew controversy, and that there is speculation the committee may choose a figure seen as able to stand up to Trump, such as Pope Leo XIV, or grassroots humanitarian groups to avoid friction. The ceremony is on December 10, with the peace prize presented in Oslo. [ 1 , 4 ]