Latvia’s prime minister’s party leads count with 37.2% after 7% of ballots
Version 2: Preliminary vote counts have now been published, naming the prime minister’s United List party, its lead and partial seat distribution, turnout and the coalition arithmetic alongside the earlier exit poll lead.
In short
Latvia’s Central Election Commission data put Prime Minister Andris Kurbergs’s United List on 37.2% with 7% of ballots counted, Kommersant reported, which would give it 37 of 100 Saeima seats. An earlier exit poll reported by RBC had the same party at 35.6%. No party has a majority: 51 votes are needed to form a government, and Kommersant said at least 14 more deputies would be required.
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Data from Latvia’s Central Election Commission showed the party of Prime Minister Andris Kurbergs, the United List, on 37.2% with 7% of ballots counted, Kommersant reported. That share would give the party 37 of the 100 seats in the Saeima. Latvia in First Place was second with 12.78%, or 13 seats, and the National Union “All for Latvia!” third with 9.88%, or 10 seats, according to the same report. [ 3 ]
Earlier, RBC reported that an exit poll gave the prime minister’s party 35.6%, significantly ahead of its competitors, and that six parties could enter the Saeima, among them two political forces that the Financial Times, as cited by RBC, assesses as relying largely on Russian-speaking voters. RIA Novosti reported that the prime minister’s party was leading in the Saeima elections. The documents do not explain the difference between the exit poll figure and the partial count. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Voting took place on 3 October and polling stations closed at 20:00 local time, Kommersant reported. Turnout was 51.68%, with more than 804,000 voters, and 14 parties took part in the election, which is held by party lists; lists winning more than 5% enter the Saeima, the outlet said. [ 3 ]
The preliminary result does not give the United List a majority in the 100-seat chamber, Kommersant reported. Forming a majority government would require 51 votes for the prime minister, meaning the support of at least 14 more deputies. Without such an agreement the cabinet could rely on a narrower coalition and work as a minority government, but its stability would then depend on parliamentary votes, the outlet said. [ 3 ]
Kommersant recalled that in May 2026 support from 44 deputies of centre-right and conservative forces, including the United List, the National Alliance and the Union of Greens and Peasants, was considered for a minority government, but that forming a majority government would still have required widening that base to 51 votes. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
The preliminary result points to the prime minister’s party as the largest in the 100-seat Saeima but without a majority, so the shape of Latvia’s next government will depend on coalition talks, Kommersant reported. RBC, citing the Financial Times, said two of the parties that may enter parliament rely largely on Russian-speaking voters, which could affect that electorate’s representation. The documents give no final results and no details of any negotiations.
Key facts
- Latvia held parliamentary elections for the 15th Saeima on 3 October, with polling stations closing at 20:00 local time, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- After 7% of ballots were counted, the United List of Prime Minister Andris Kurbergs had 37.2%, which would give it 37 of 100 seats, according to Kommersant, citing the Central Election Commission. [ 3 ]
- Latvia in First Place was second with 12.78% (13 seats) and the National Union “All for Latvia!” third with 9.88% (10 seats), Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- Turnout was 51.68%, with more than 804,000 voters, and 14 parties took part, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- RBC reported an exit poll giving the prime minister’s party 35.6%, well ahead of its rivals, and said six parties could enter the Saeima. [ 1 ]
- RIA Novosti reported that the prime minister’s party was leading in the Saeima elections, without further details in the available item. [ 2 ]
- Kommersant said the preliminary result leaves the United List short of the 51 votes needed for a majority government, requiring support from at least 14 more deputies. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- Final results and the confirmed distribution of seats. Kommersant’s figures are based on 7% of ballots counted, and RBC’s are exit poll numbers; no final count is given.
- Why the exit poll figure and the partial count differ. RBC reported 35.6% from an exit poll while Kommersant reported 37.2% from 7% of ballots counted; neither document explains the gap.
- The full list of parties entering the Saeima. RBC said six parties may enter, and Kommersant named only the top three of 14 parties running.
- Whether RIA Novosti’s report rests on the same exit poll or on other data. RIA Novosti’s available item has no text beyond the headline.
- Whether coalition talks have begun and with whom. The documents describe the arithmetic of majority and minority government but report no negotiations.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Polling stations close in Latvia’s Saeima election, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- RBC publishes exit poll results putting the prime minister’s party at 35.6%. [ 1 ]
- RIA Novosti publishes a report that the prime minister’s party is leading. [ 2 ]
- Kommersant publishes Central Election Commission data with 7% of ballots counted. [ 3 ]