Realmeter: Lee's approval at 37.4%; Democrats 42.5%, People Power 38.4%
Version 2: More outlets have now published the same Realmeter release, adding regional, age and ideological breakdowns and detail on the party gap of 4.1 points after seven weeks inside the margin of error; the headline approval figure is unchanged.
In short
A Realmeter survey commissioned by Energy Economy News put President Lee Jae-myung's job approval at 37.4%, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous week, with disapproval at 59.8%. In the same release, the Democratic Party stood at 42.5%, up 3.8 points, and the People Power Party at 38.4%, down 1.0 point, a 4.1-point gap that the pollster said was inside the margin of error for a seventh straight week. Realmeter cited livelihood and welfare measures funded by 63 trillion won in excess tax revenue as a positive factor and said personnel, security and livelihood problems weighed more heavily.
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President Lee Jae-myung's job approval rating stood at 37.4%, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous week, according to a Realmeter survey commissioned by Energy Economy News and released on Oct. 5. Disapproval was 59.8%, down 0.3 percentage point, and 2.8% of respondents said they did not know. The survey covered 2,515 people aged 18 and over nationwide from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
Chosun Ilbo reported that the rating had rebounded in the third week of September, its first rise in 10 weeks, then climbed 1.0 and 3.1 percentage points in two consecutive weeks before falling again in this release. [ 6 ]
Realmeter attributed the small decline to a mix of factors. It cited livelihood and welfare policy announcements funded by 63 trillion won in excess tax revenue as a positive, while saying personnel, security and livelihood problems had a larger effect: controversy over the creation of a prosecution service and a major crimes investigation agency and the appointment of Kim Ji-yong to lead it, the DMZ landmine explosion, diplomatic friction with Ukraine, and instability in Seoul-area rental and lease-deposit costs. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
In a separate poll of 1,009 eligible voters on Oct. 1-2, the Democratic Party stood at 42.5%, up 3.8 points, and the People Power Party at 38.4%, down 1.0 point. The 4.1-point gap was the seventh consecutive week inside the margin of error. The Cho Kuk Innovation Party was at 5.2%, up 1.2 points, the Reform Party at 1.5%, the Progressive Party at 1.3%, other parties at 1.6% and unaffiliated respondents at 9.5%. [ 4 , 5 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
Hankook Ilbo, Electronic Times and NoCut News carried regional and demographic breakdowns. Approval fell 8.1 points to 57.4% in Gwangju, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk, and 1.3 points to 35.1% in Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam, while rising 7.3 points to 29.2% in Daegu and Gyeongbuk and 2.4 points to 42.4% in Daejeon, Sejong and Chungcheong. Among conservatives approval fell 2.2 points to 14.1% and among progressives 1.1 points to 54.4%, while moderates rose 2.8 points to 42.7%. The Democratic Party gained 12.0 points in Daegu and Gyeongbuk and 6.3 points in Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam, where the People Power Party stood at 41.2%, and among respondents in their 30s the Democratic Party rose 11.5 points to 41.9% while the People Power Party fell 7.5 points to 37.5%. [ 11 , 13 , 15 ]
Realmeter said the Democratic Party's rise reflected positive views of the government's use of surplus tax revenue and of housing, jobs and small-business financing measures, with support consolidating among moderates, progressives and people in their 30s and 40s. It attributed the People Power Party's decline to its security offensive over the DMZ landmine accident being seen as political wrangling and to a hardline stance, including a declared outside-parliament struggle, that drove moderates away. [ 10 , 11 , 13 , 15 ]
The approval survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a 3.9% response rate; the party survey had a margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and a 3.0% response rate. Both were conducted by 100% wireless automated response using randomly generated phone numbers, the outlets reported. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
Why it matters
The release is a routine reading of national sentiment rather than a decision or policy change, and the movement it records is small. It nonetheless shows the governing Democratic Party and the main opposition People Power Party inside the survey's margin of error for a seventh consecutive week, and it lists the personnel, security and livelihood issues that Realmeter says are weighing on the president's standing.
Key facts
- Realmeter put President Lee Jae-myung's job approval at 37.4%, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous week. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- Disapproval stood at 59.8%, down 0.3 percentage point, and 2.8% of respondents said they did not know. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- The approval survey was commissioned by Energy Economy News and conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 among 2,515 people aged 18 and over nationwide. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- Realmeter cited livelihood and welfare policies funded by 63 trillion won in excess tax revenue as a positive factor, and the new prosecution and major crimes investigation agencies, the Kim Ji-yong appointment controversy, the DMZ landmine explosion, diplomatic friction with Ukraine and Seoul-area rental instability as larger negative factors. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- In a separate Oct. 1-2 poll of 1,009 eligible voters, the Democratic Party stood at 42.5%, up 3.8 points, and the People Power Party at 38.4%, down 1.0 point, a 4.1-point gap inside the margin of error for a seventh consecutive week. [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- The Cho Kuk Innovation Party was at 5.2%, up 1.2 points, the Reform Party at 1.5%, the Progressive Party at 1.3%, other parties at 1.6% and unaffiliated respondents at 9.5%. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- Approval fell 8.1 points to 57.4% in Gwangju, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk, and among ideological groups fell 2.2 points to 14.1% among conservatives and 1.1 points to 54.4% among progressives, while moderates rose 2.8 points to 42.7%. [ 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- The approval survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a 3.9% response rate; the party survey had a margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and a 3.0% response rate; both used 100% wireless automated response. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- President Lee Jae-myung's job approval rating was 37.4%, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous week, in a Realmeter survey. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- Disapproval was 59.8%, down 0.3 percentage point, and 2.8% answered that they did not know. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- The survey was commissioned by Energy Economy News and conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 among 2,515 people aged 18 and over nationwide. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- The Democratic Party stood at 42.5% and the People Power Party at 38.4%, a 4.1-point gap that was inside the margin of error for a seventh straight week, in a poll conducted Oct. 1-2 among 1,009 eligible voters. [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
- Realmeter attributed the small decline to positive factors such as livelihood and welfare policies funded by 63 trillion won in excess tax revenue, outweighed by personnel, security and livelihood problems. [ 4 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the 0.5 percentage point decline in approval is statistically significant. The documents give the change and the margin of error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points but do not state whether the movement falls within it.
- Why approval fell most sharply in Gwangju, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk, down 8.1 percentage points to 57.4%. The regional figure is reported by several outlets, but the documents give no explanation from the pollster or anyone else for the size of that decline.
- Any reaction to the poll from the presidential office or the political parties. No response from any of them appears in the documents.
- Poll details from Kukmin Ilbo and Korea Economic Daily. Both carried poll headlines, but the article text available under them concerns unrelated topics — an AI security story and separate political items — so their supporting detail could not be read.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Kukmin Ilbo publishes a first headline reporting the approval rating at 37.4%, down from three weeks earlier. [ 1 ]
- Newsis publishes the approval figure, attributing it to Realmeter. [ 3 ]
- Yonhap publishes the full release, including methodology, party support and Realmeter's analysis. [ 4 ]
- Newsis publishes the party support figures. [ 5 ]
- Hankook Ilbo publishes the regional, age and ideological breakdowns. [ 11 ]
- Electronic Times publishes the poll with the full breakdown. [ 13 ]
- NoCut News publishes its summary of the same release. [ 15 ]