UNICEF warns El Niño could affect more than 347 million children
Version 2: A fuller UNICEF report is now available: it puts the number of children at risk at more than 347 million in 100 countries for October to December 2026, names Asia-Pacific and East and Southern Africa as the most exposed regions, adds World Food Programme food-insecurity projections and includes a Russian Academy of Sciences official cautioning that El Niño forecasts have often failed.
In short
UNICEF says El Niño conditions from October to December 2026 will expose more than 347 million children in about 100 countries to floods, droughts, water shortages, malnutrition and disease outbreaks. The largest numbers at risk are in Asia-Pacific (190 million) and East and Southern Africa (41 million). UNICEF called for early investment, while the head of the Russian Academy of Sciences said forecasts of the phenomenon have often failed because the models are complex.
Read the full story 2 min read
UNICEF has warned that more than 347 million children in 100 countries will be exposed to anomalously wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026 because of El Niño. In its report, the UN children's agency said the phenomenon could lead to displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks, and that it raises the probability of severe floods and droughts. Kommersant reported that, according to the organisation's forecasts, the 2026–2027 El Niño will be one of the strongest on record. [ 3 , 4 , 5 ]
Most of the children at risk live in Asia-Pacific, at 190 million, with a further 41 million in East and Southern Africa. “For children, El Niño is far more than a natural and climatic phenomenon. It can lead to increased forced displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks,” UNICEF executive director Catherine Russell said, according to Kommersant. UNICEF called on the international community to invest in preventing the consequences of the phenomenon in advance. [ 3 , 4 ]
Vedomosti reported additional UNICEF figures: 1.1 billion children are already exposed to at least three climate hazards at the same time — drought, extreme heat and floods — and more than 20,000 minors migrated every day because of weather disasters between 2016 and 2023, a trend the agency says El Niño could strengthen. Kommersant cited a World Food Programme estimate that the number of people facing acute food insecurity because of El Niño could rise from 225 million to 274 million by the end of 2027, with effects on harvests and food access possibly lasting beyond the weather anomalies themselves. [ 3 , 4 ]
The coverage also included a Russian caveat. Vedomosti quoted Gennady Krasnikov, head of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who told RIA Novosti in early October that El Niño has been known about for decades and that many forecasts have failed because the models are complex. “Changes will happen, definitely; the whole question is in what period of time,” he said. Kommersant separately noted that a neural network developed by researchers at a company and the Higher School of Economics can predict El Niño-linked floods almost two years ahead, allowing time for preventive measures; the company was not named. [ 3 , 4 ]
Why it matters
A UN children's agency projecting effects on more than 347 million children across roughly 100 countries points to an international preparedness and funding question that extends far beyond any one country. UNICEF is asking for money to be committed before the extreme conditions arrive, and its food-security projections run into 2027. A Russian scientific official quoted in the coverage cautions that such forecasts have frequently not materialised, so the practical scale remains uncertain.
Key facts
- UNICEF said El Niño conditions from October to December 2026 will affect more than 347 million children in 100 countries, according to Kommersant, Vedomosti and RBC. [ 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- UNICEF forecasts that the 2026–2027 El Niño will be one of the strongest on record, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- Anomalously wet or dry conditions raise the risk of severe floods, droughts and disease outbreaks, which UNICEF says can lead to displacement, malnutrition and water shortages. [ 3 , 4 ]
- The largest number of children at risk is in Asia-Pacific (190 million), followed by East and Southern Africa (41 million). [ 3 , 4 ]
- UNICEF said 1.1 billion children are already exposed to at least three climate hazards at once — drought, extreme heat and floods — and that more than 20,000 minors migrated daily because of weather disasters between 2016 and 2023. [ 4 ]
- The World Food Programme estimates the number of people facing acute food insecurity because of El Niño could rise from 225 million to 274 million by the end of 2027, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- Gennady Krasnikov, head of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RIA Novosti in early October that El Niño has been known for decades and that many forecasts have failed because of the complexity of the models. [ 4 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- UNICEF says El Niño will affect more than 347 million children in 100 countries between October and December 2026. [ 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- The projected effects include a higher risk of floods, droughts, water shortages, malnutrition, displacement and disease outbreaks. [ 3 , 4 ]
- The Asia-Pacific region accounts for the largest number of children at risk, at 190 million. [ 3 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the figure is exactly 100 countries or almost 100. Kommersant states 100 countries, while Vedomosti and RBC say almost 100; TASS says nearly 100.
- Which countries are most exposed and what specific response measures are planned. The documents name regions but no individual countries, and give no details of planned programmes.
- How reliable the forecast of a record-strength El Niño is. Vedomosti quotes the head of the Russian Academy of Sciences saying many past El Niño forecasts did not come true, a caveat not reflected in the other documents.
- Which company developed the neural network that predicts El Niño-linked floods up to two years ahead. Kommersant refers only to researchers from a company and HSE without naming the company.
- UNICEF called for the international community to invest early in preventing the consequences of the phenomenon. Reported by a single source so far
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- RIA Novosti reports that the UN warned about the consequences of El Niño for children. [ 1 ]
- TASS reports that UNICEF says El Niño will affect children in nearly 100 countries. [ 2 ]
- Kommersant reports the UNICEF estimate of 347 million children in 100 countries. [ 3 ]
- Vedomosti reports the same figure and adds the 190 million Asia-Pacific breakdown and the Russian Academy of Sciences comment. [ 4 ]
- RBC reports that more than 347 million children in almost 100 countries and territories may face weather anomalies. [ 5 ]