Trump says US will not attack Iran before Nov. 3 midterms, blockade stays in place
In short
US President Donald Trump said on October 8, local time, on Truth Social that the United States would not attack Iran at any point before the November 3 midterm elections, citing productive discussions with Iran, and said the blockade of Iran would remain fully in place. The statement followed an Axios report that the Pentagon had told Central Command to prepare to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, and reports that oil prices rose sharply intraday on October 8.
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US President Donald Trump said on October 8, local time, that the United States would not attack Iran at any point before the November 3 midterm elections, according to Korean outlets citing his post on Truth Social. He wrote that the US was having productive discussions with Iran, said Iran was in a very bad state economically and militarily, and said the blockade of Iran would remain fully in force. He also repeated that Iran would not have nuclear weapons. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
Trump said 22 million barrels of oil had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous night alone and that not a single barrel came from or went to Iran. Kyunghyang Shinmun reported that Britain's Guardian said the figure had not been independently verified. Trump did not say what steps he would take after the election; Kyunghyang noted he had previously threatened to intensify bombing of Iran after the vote. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
The statement followed reports that a strike could come before the vote. Axios reported on October 7 that the Pentagon had instructed Central Command (CENTCOM) days earlier to prepare to resume large-scale combat operations against Iran, without setting a date, and that Trump had not made a final decision. US and Israeli sources told Axios operations could resume before the US midterms or before Israel's election, which Kukmin Ilbo dated to October 27. The Atlantic, citing administration officials, reported that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be carried out before November 3, with CENTCOM drawing up plans. Sources said strikes would target Iran's energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear sites. Seoul Economic Daily and Maeil Business reported that oil prices rose sharply intraday on October 8 on the reports, before Trump's message. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 11 , 14 ]
According to The Atlantic, as reported by Korea Economic Daily, the average US gasoline price stood at $4.37 a gallon, up from under $3 before US and Israeli military operations against Iran began. Korea Economic Daily also reported that even supporters of a limited strike acknowledged it would be hard to bring fuel prices down before election day. Hankook Ilbo cited a New York Times poll in which 43% said they would vote Republican and 52% Democratic. [ 2 , 5 ]
Yonhap, citing Axios, reported that senior officials met at Camp David on October 2 in a meeting chaired by Vice President JD Vance. Dong-A Ilbo and Newsis reported that the US had sent a counterproposal demanding nuclear concessions. Newsis reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was reviewing US comments on its seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and would reply in the coming days; Iran's demands include a halt to hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, the release of some frozen assets, and the lifting of the naval blockade and oil sanctions. Control of the strait is disputed: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Athens on October 7 that Iran had completely lost control of it, while Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an adviser to the Revolutionary Guards commander, told Fars the strait was closed and fully controlled by Iranian forces, Reuters reported according to Dong-A Ilbo. [ 3 , 4 , 9 ]
Why it matters
Korean outlets tied a possible strike to oil prices and the US midterms, and Yonhap noted that resuming large-scale operations before the vote could push oil prices up again and affect the results. Trump did not say what he would do after the election, and an Israeli official told Axios the likelihood of an attack would rise considerably after the vote.
Key facts
- Trump said on Truth Social on October 8 that the US would not attack Iran at any point before the November 3 midterm elections. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
- Trump said the US was having productive discussions with Iran and that Iran would not have nuclear weapons. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
- Trump said the blockade of Iran would remain fully in place. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 ]
- Trump said 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, none from or to Iran. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
- Axios had reported that the Pentagon instructed Central Command (CENTCOM) to prepare to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, without setting a date. [ 3 , 4 , 8 , 9 , 13 , 14 ]
- Oil prices rose sharply intraday on October 8 on reports of the preparations, before Trump's message. [ 11 , 14 ]
- The Atlantic reported the average US gasoline price at $4.37 a gallon, up from under $3 before US and Israeli military operations against Iran began. [ 2 ]
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would reply within days to US comments on its seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. [ 9 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. [ 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
- Trump said the blockade of Iran would remain fully in place. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 ]
- Axios reported that the Pentagon instructed CENTCOM to prepare to resume large-scale military operations against Iran. [ 3 , 4 , 8 , 9 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
- The Atlantic reported that the White House asked the Pentagon for options to strike Iran before the midterm elections, with CENTCOM drawing up plans. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 ]
- Trump's national security team met at Camp David on October 2. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Oil prices rose sharply intraday on October 8 before Trump's message. [ 11 , 14 ]
Still unclear
- Whether 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in one night. Trump's figure; Kyunghyang Shinmun reported that the Guardian said it had not been independently verified.
- What the US will do after the November 3 election. Trump did not say; an Israeli official told Axios an attack would become considerably more likely after the election.
- Who controls the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio said Iran had completely lost control of it, while an adviser to the Revolutionary Guards commander said the strait was closed and fully controlled by Iranian forces.
- Whether Iran will accept US terms in the talks. Iran is reviewing US comments on its seven-day plan and the US counterproposal on nuclear concessions; Araghchi said a reply would come in the coming days.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- October 8: Kukmin Ilbo reports The Atlantic and Axios accounts that the US is weighing renewed strikes on Iran before the midterms. [ 1 ]
- October 8: Yonhap reports Axios account that the Pentagon told CENTCOM to prepare to resume large-scale operations against Iran. [ 4 ]
- October 9: Newsis flashes Trump's statement that the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms. [ 6 ]
- October 9: Yonhap reports Trump's statement. [ 7 ]
- October 9: Kyunghyang Shinmun reports the Guardian's note that Trump's oil-flow figure was not independently verified. [ 13 ]