Cook shifts 18 House races toward Democrats, projects gains of nine to 19 seats
In short
The Cook Political Report shifted 18 US House races in Democrats' direction in an October 9 update. Its revised outlook puts Democratic gains at nine to 19 seats, leaving the party with 224 to 234 seats, according to Axios and The Hill.
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The Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races in Democrats' direction in an October 9 update and revised its expected range of gains to nine to 19 seats. Axios and The Hill reported that this would leave Democrats holding 224 to 234 seats. Bloomberg described the assessment as pointing toward a Democratic majority and oversight of President Donald Trump after next month's election. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Axios reported that five races in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington moved from toss-up to leaning Democratic. They included Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks' rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan in Iowa. Four races in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia moved from leaning Republican to toss-up. Axios highlighted the change as favourable for Democratic Representative Don Davis in North Carolina, whose district had been altered by mid-decade redistricting. [ 2 ]
The Hill reported rating changes affecting Republican incumbents including Zach Nunn in Iowa, Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry in Pennsylvania, Bill Huizenga in Michigan and Rob Wittman in Virginia. Democratic incumbents whose races moved further in their party's favour included Susie Lee in Nevada, Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen in New York, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington and Davis. Four open races in Nebraska's 2nd District, Iowa's 2nd, Kentucky's 6th and Maine's 2nd also shifted toward Democrats. [ 3 ]
Cook House editor Erin Covey said Democrats would need to win 20% of toss-ups to reach a majority, assuming all seats rated in their favour went their way, according to The Hill. The outlet linked the Republican environment to the Iran war and dissatisfaction with the economy. In CNN's report, Cook's Amy Walter said Republican spending had not stopped a growing tide against the party. The Washington Post said polling and forecasters suggested Democrats were likely to retake the House in November. [ 3 , 4 , 5 ]
Why it matters
The projected gains would give Democrats a House majority and oversight of President Donald Trump, the reports said. Cook editor Erin Covey said Democrats would need to win 20% of toss-up races for a majority if all seats rated in their favour went their way.
Key facts
- Cook shifted 18 House races in Democrats' direction. [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- Its most likely outcome is Democratic gains of nine to 19 seats. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The projected Democratic total is 224 to 234 seats. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Five races in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington moved from toss-up to leaning Democratic. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- The final House majority remains an election outcome rather than an established result. The documents report forecasts and ratings before November's election.