Shanghai second-hand home prices rise year on year in September, first time in 3 years
In short
Shanghai's second-hand home prices rose 0.8% year on year in September and 0.5% month on month, according to National Bureau of Statistics data cited by Yicai and Caixin. Caixin and Huxiu describe Shanghai as the only one of the 70 cities to post a year-on-year gain. Analysts quoted by the outlets expect the stabilisation to continue in the fourth quarter.
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Shanghai's second-hand home prices rose 0.8% year on year in September, the first year-on-year increase in about three years, Caixin reported, citing National Bureau of Statistics data released on 19 October. Month on month, prices rose 0.5%. Caixin said Shanghai was the only one of the 70 large and medium-sized cities to record a year-on-year rise that month. [ 2 ]
Yicai said Shanghai led the 70 cities with its 0.5% monthly rise and was the first of the 70 cities, and the only first-tier city, to turn positive year on year. Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Across first-tier cities, second-hand prices rose 0.2% month on month, 0.1 percentage point more than in August, and have risen for seven straight months since March. Huxiu gave the same Shanghai year-on-year figure and said it was the first positive reading since July 2023. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Prices in lower tiers were still falling. In September, second-tier city second-hand prices fell 0.2% month on month and third-tier prices fell 0.3%. Year on year, they fell 4.5% and 5.4%, declines that narrowed by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points. Nine of the 70 cities saw monthly rises, six more than in August, Yicai reported. [ 1 ]
Yan Yuejin, deputy head of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute (上海易居房地产研究院), said all 70 cities had been in year-on-year second-hand price decline since January 2024. Yicai quoted him as saying many cities' prices were more than 30% below the same period or their peak, and that many cities' prices had basically fallen to the bottom. Zhang Dawei (张大伟), chief analyst at Zhongyuan Property (中原地产), said the turn meant Shanghai had largely recovered the past year's fall. [ 1 , 3 ]
Yicai also cited October activity. Shanghai registered 1,631 online second-hand contracts on the Saturday before publication, the third highest this year. Shanghai Lianjia said volume from 1 to 18 October was 39% above the same period in 2025. Beijing recorded 4,729 second-hand deals from 1 to 15 October, about 18.08% more than a year earlier. Huxiu said Shanghai second-hand sales in September were 23,581 units, up 15% year on year. [ 1 , 3 ]
Huxiu attributed the recovery partly to Shanghai policy, from the "Hu Qi Tiao" (沪七条) at the start of the year to the "Hu Ba Tiao" (沪八条) in August. Lu Wenxi of Shanghai Zhongyuan Property expected further moderate rises in second-hand prices in the fourth quarter. Industry figures cited by Yicai linked stabilisation to reduced new-home supply, falling second-hand listings and interest subsidies, and expected first-tier prices to turn positive year on year across the board. [ 1 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The outlets present the Shanghai figure as a sign that the second-hand market in top-tier cities is recovering after a long decline. Analysts quoted expect first-tier prices to stabilise further, though Huxiu's sources say the longer-term path is hard to predict.
Key facts
- Shanghai second-hand home prices rose 0.8% year on year in September, per National Bureau of Statistics data released on 19 October. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Shanghai prices rose 0.5% month on month in September, the top rise among first-tier cities. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities rose 0.2% month on month in September, the seventh straight monthly rise since March. [ 1 , 2 ]
- In September, second-tier city second-hand prices fell 0.2% month on month and third-tier prices fell 0.3%. [ 1 ]
- Shanghai second-hand home sales in September were 23,581 units, up 15% year on year, according to Huxiu. [ 3 ]
- Nine of the 70 cities recorded month-on-month second-hand price rises in September, six more than in August. [ 1 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Shanghai second-hand home prices rose 0.8% year on year in September, according to National Bureau of Statistics data. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Shanghai prices rose 0.5% month on month in September. [ 1 , 2 ]
- First-tier city second-hand prices have risen month on month for seven consecutive months since March. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Yan Yuejin of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute said all 70 cities were in year-on-year second-hand price decline from January 2024. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether Shanghai's year-on-year change is already positive or still slightly negative. Huxiu cites Pacific Properties (太平洋房屋) as saying the year-on-year decline narrowed from -6.2% to -0.8%, close to turning positive, while the National Bureau of Statistics figure cited by Yicai, Caixin and Huxiu is +0.8%; the documents do not explain the difference.
- How long the recovery will last. Huxiu quotes Pacific Properties as saying the medium-term outlook depends on policy, inventory and the macro economy, and the long-term path is hard to predict.
- Whether the new-home price rise will be sustained. Huxiu quotes Lu Wenxi (卢文曦) of Shanghai Zhongyuan Property as saying October may not match September's year-on-year new-home rise.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- On 21 October, the Su He Yan (苏河晏) project in Shanghai's Putuo district closed subscription, with a subscription rate of about 534%, according to Huxiu. [ 3 ]
- Yicai published its report on 20 October that Shanghai's second-hand prices turned positive year on year. [ 1 ]
- Caixin published its report on 21 October on Shanghai's first year-on-year rise in three years. [ 2 ]
- Huxiu published its analysis of Shanghai's housing market on 22 October. [ 3 ]