Tesla says unsupervised FSD may reach customer cars as soon as next year's Q2
In short
At its third-quarter earnings call on 21 October (US local time), Tesla said it could run unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) on some customer-owned cars as early as the second quarter of next year and add them to its robotaxi fleet. Tesla also reported third-quarter revenue of $28.05 billion and earnings per share of 48 cents, both above market forecasts, and gave a schedule for its Terafab chip plant in Austin.
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Tesla said it could run unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) on customer-owned cars as early as the second quarter of next year. Ashok Elluswamy (아쇼크 엘루스와미), the company's vice president for autonomous driving software, made the remarks on 21 October (US local time) on the third-quarter earnings call. He said the autonomous driving software of the Cybercab and the Model Y is the same, and that around the second quarter of next year some customer-owned vehicles could run unsupervised FSD and be included in the robotaxi fleet. [ 1 , 2 , 6 ]
Yonhap and Seoul Economic Daily noted that FSD in Tesla cars today is a supervised version in which the driver must watch the road and react to unexpected situations, and that this limit is expected to disappear soon. They said owners could then take passengers like a taxi when they are not using their cars. Korea Economic Daily quoted Elluswamy as saying the same software could be offered to customers soon through a V15 update. It said not every car would qualify, because a customer's Model Y must be registered in a specific geofenced area and in the vehicle management system. [ 1 , 5 , 6 ]
On robotaxis, CEO Elon Musk said the number of vehicles in Austin, Texas, had grown tenfold since launch a month earlier. Yonhap and Seoul Economic Daily reported that cumulative robotaxi mileage was close to 2 million miles as of September. Elluswamy said the service would start in Dallas next month and spread to more cities. Seoul Economic Daily said Tesla currently operates in Austin, Houston, Orlando, Tampa and Miami. [ 1 , 2 , 5 , 6 ]
Musk said the biggest driver of rising vehicle demand is FSD. Tesla said more than 75% of new deliveries in North America in the third quarter chose a paid FSD subscription, up 20 percentage points from the previous quarter, and that active FSD subscribers worldwide rose 67% from a year earlier to 1.74 million. On Terafab, the chip plant being built in Austin, Yonhap and Electronic Times reported a schedule of equipment commissioning in the first half of next year, test chips in May and June, and commercial production from the third quarter of 2028. Maeil Business instead wrote of full-scale production at the end of 2028. Musk said capital spending would reach several tens of billions of dollars by early 2028 and more than $100 billion over the long term, according to Yonhap. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
Third-quarter revenue was $28.05 billion, above the $27.9 billion forecast compiled by LSEG, and EPS was 48 cents against an expected 43 cents, Yonhap reported. Auto revenue fell 3% to $20.56 billion and energy generation and storage revenue fell 16% to $2.88 billion, while services and other revenue rose 33% to $4.61 billion. Deliveries were 486,532 vehicles, down 2%. Capital expenditure rose to $4.732 billion from $2.248 billion a year earlier but was below the $7.5 billion analysts expected. Free cash flow was $1.531 billion, down 62% on the year but positive after a deficit of about $1.1 billion in the second quarter. [ 1 ]
Electronic Times reported that Tesla's shares, which rose 3.4% in regular trading, fell 2% to 3% in after-hours trading after the call. It also reported that Musk set a goal of building capacity for 20,000 Optimus humanoid robots a week within a year, and that on talk of a merger with SpaceX he said he had nothing new to disclose. Seoul Economic Daily said Tesla has yet to obtain a permit in California for autonomous ride-hailing, citing AP that Tesla is not approved for partial self-driving software in most EU countries, and said Waymo leads the robotaxi market. [ 2 , 6 ]
Why it matters
If the plan goes ahead, owners could earn money by letting their cars take passengers when they are not using them, according to Korean outlets. Seoul Economic Daily noted that Tesla still has to overcome regulatory approval and safety trust, including a missing California permit for autonomous ride-hailing.
Key facts
- Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla's vice president for autonomous driving software, said on the 21st (US local time) that around the second quarter of next year some customer-owned vehicles could run unsupervised FSD and join the robotaxi fleet. [ 1 , 2 , 6 ]
- Tesla's third-quarter revenue was $28.05 billion against an LSEG market forecast of $27.9 billion; earnings per share were 48 cents against an expected 43 cents. [ 1 ]
- Third-quarter capital expenditure was $4.732 billion, more than double the $2.248 billion of a year earlier and below the $7.5 billion analysts expected. [ 1 , 2 ]
- More than 75% of new Tesla deliveries in North America in the third quarter came with a paid FSD subscription, up 20 percentage points from the previous quarter; active FSD subscribers worldwide rose 67% to 1.74 million. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Musk said the number of vehicles in Austin had grown tenfold since the robotaxi launch a month earlier; Elluswamy said the service would expand to Dallas next month. [ 1 , 2 , 5 , 6 ]
- Terafab in Austin is to start equipment commissioning in the first half of next year, produce test chips in May and June, and begin commercial production from the third quarter of 2028, according to Yonhap and Electronic Times. [ 1 , 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Tesla said unsupervised FSD could be applied to some customer vehicles as early as the second quarter of next year. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 6 ]
- The robotaxi service will expand to Dallas next month. [ 1 , 2 , 6 ]
- Third-quarter revenue was $28.05 billion and EPS was 48 cents, above market forecasts. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Capital expenditure in the third quarter was $4.732 billion, more than double a year earlier. [ 1 , 2 ]
- More than 75% of new North American deliveries chose paid FSD, and active global subscribers reached 1.74 million. [ 1 , 2 ]
Still unclear
- When Terafab begins full production. Yonhap and Electronic Times say commercial production starts from the third quarter of 2028, while Maeil Business says full-scale production at the end of 2028.
- Whether unsupervised FSD will work in all Model Y cars. Korea Economic Daily quotes Elluswamy saying a customer's Model Y must be registered in a specific geofenced area and in the vehicle management system, so the first rollout appears limited.
- Who would be responsible if an unsupervised vehicle has an accident. A Maeil Business headline raises the question, but the available text gives no answer.
- Details of the Optimus humanoid robot production target. Only Electronic Times gives the goal of 20,000 units per week within a year; Maeil Business says only that production would start at the Fremont, California plant.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yonhap publishes its report on the 22nd that Tesla plans unsupervised FSD on customer vehicles from as early as the second quarter of next year. [ 1 ]
- Electronic Times publishes its report on the earnings call held on the 21st (US local time). [ 2 ]
- Yonhap publishes a video item on the plan. [ 3 ]
- Maeil Business publishes a report on the plan alongside Meta's capital spending. [ 4 ]
- Korea Economic Daily publishes its report, citing the V15 update and geofence requirement. [ 5 ]
- Seoul Economic Daily publishes a column on the 23rd on the plan and competition from Waymo and Chinese firms. [ 6 ]