Weak US jobs data lift October Fed rate-hold bets; bitcoin slips below $86,000
In short
US employment data came in weaker than expected, strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at its October meeting, with Kukmin Ilbo putting the odds of a hold at 78 percent. Major cryptocurrencies that had risen on that view paused, with bitcoin down 0.62 percent at $85,986 on the morning of Oct 6 and at $85,544.66, down 0.41 percent, on Oct 7. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above $87,000 since Sept 23.
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US employment data came in unexpectedly weak, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at its October meeting. Kukmin Ilbo put the October rate-hold outlook at 78 percent, while Seoul Economic Daily said the probability of a Fed rate increase in October had fallen to around 19 percent from roughly 50 percent a week earlier. The figures were published on different dates and no rate decision has been reported. [ 1 , 4 ]
Cryptocurrencies that had risen on the rate-hold view paused. Chosun Ilbo reported that bitcoin was trading at $85,986 at 08:20 on Oct 6, down 0.62 percent from 24 hours earlier, while Ethereum stood at $2,717, down 0.50 percent. [ 3 ]
On Oct 7 at 08:00, bitcoin traded at $85,544.66, down 0.41 percent, according to CoinMarketCap data cited by Seoul Economic Daily. Ethereum fell 0.69 percent to $2,696.26, Ripple 0.74 percent to $1.49, Binance Coin 1.09 percent and Solana 0.01 percent. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation was $2.93 trillion, down 0.51 percent. In Korea, bitcoin traded at 115.9 million won on Bithumb, down 0.69 percent, with Ethereum, Ripple and Solana also lower. [ 4 ]
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed at the $87,000 level. Seoul Economic Daily, citing CoinDesk, said bitcoin had tried three times to break through after Sept 23 and was blocked by selling each time, narrowing its price range. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said bitcoin was nearing the apex of a triangle formed by horizontal resistance and a rising support line, and that volatility could widen if it leaves that range. The outlet also cited CoinTelegraph and the blockchain data firm Glassnode as saying upward momentum has weakened. [ 4 ]
US Treasury yields eased from recent highs: the 10-year yield fell 0.027 percentage point to 5.28 percent on Oct 6 and the 30-year fell 0.005 point to 5.65 percent, after the 10-year had climbed to a 24-year high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs but bitcoin did not follow, which the outlet read as the $87,000 level weighing more heavily than the improved macro environment. [ 4 ]
A US 10-year Treasury auction and the minutes of the Fed's September meeting were scheduled for Oct 7. Seoul Economic Daily said a weak auction result or minutes highlighting further tightening could again weigh on risk assets, while a break above $87,000 could widen bitcoin's recently narrow trading range. The Fear and Greed index compiled by Alternative.me stood at 73, up 3 points, in “greed” territory. [ 4 ]
Why it matters
The October Fed decision is watched worldwide, and Korean business outlets are tracking it through both US bond yields and cryptocurrency prices. Whether bitcoin can clear the $87,000 level is being treated as a test of whether softer US rate expectations translate into further gains for risk assets. A weak US Treasury auction or hawkish September FOMC minutes on Oct 7 could reverse the move, the documents say.
Key facts
- US employment data came in unexpectedly weak, strengthening expectations the Fed will hold rates at its October meeting. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Kukmin Ilbo put the October rate-hold outlook at 78 percent. [ 1 ]
- Seoul Economic Daily said the probability of a Fed rate increase in October fell to about 19 percent from roughly 50 percent a week earlier. [ 4 ]
- Bitcoin traded at $85,986 at 08:20 on Oct 6, down 0.62 percent over 24 hours, Chosun Ilbo reported. [ 3 ]
- Bitcoin traded at $85,544.66 at 08:00 on Oct 7, down 0.41 percent, with the total crypto market capitalisation at $2.93 trillion. [ 4 ]
- Bitcoin has tried three times to break above $87,000 since Sept 23 and was blocked by selling each time, Seoul Economic Daily said, citing CoinDesk. [ 4 ]
- The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.027 percentage point to 5.28 percent and the 30-year fell 0.005 point to 5.65 percent on Oct 6. [ 4 ]
- A US 10-year Treasury auction and the Fed's September meeting minutes were scheduled for Oct 7. [ 4 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- Whether the Fed will actually hold or raise rates in October. The documents cite probabilities and expectations only; no rate decision has been reported.
- The differingle figures for rate expectations: 78 percent for a hold, reported Oct 3, and a 19 percent hike probability, reported Oct 7. The figures come from different outlets on different dates and neither cites a common official source.
- Why bitcoin has not followed US equities to record highs and whether it can break above $87,000. Seoul Economic Daily offers analyst views and possible factors but no settled explanation, and it is the only outlet giving this detail.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Kukmin Ilbo reports US employment was unexpectedly weak and puts the October Fed rate-hold outlook at 78 percent. [ 1 ]
- Kukmin Ilbo reports from the New York market that the case for a Fed rate hold is gaining strength on the weak US employment data. [ 2 ]
- Bitcoin trades at $85,986, down 0.62 percent over 24 hours; Ethereum at $2,717, down 0.50 percent. [ 3 ]
- US 10-year Treasury yield falls 0.027 percentage point to 5.28 percent and the 30-year falls 0.005 point to 5.65 percent on the US date of Oct 6, Seoul Economic Daily says. [ 4 ]
- Bitcoin trades at $85,544.66, down 0.41 percent; total crypto market capitalisation falls 0.51 percent to $2.93 trillion. [ 4 ]
- Seoul Economic Daily reports bitcoin is stuck below $87,000 ahead of a US 10-year Treasury auction and the release of the Fed's September FOMC minutes. [ 4 ]