US September payrolls rise 29,000, below forecast; unemployment at 4.2%
In short
US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, below the 84,000 figure Caixin said had been expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. The Labor Department also revised July and August payrolls down by a combined 60,000. Both outlets said the report reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October; Caixin put the probability of no hike before the midterm elections at 83%, while China News Service cited CME FedWatch showing a 77.3% probability that rates would be held in October.
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US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report released on Oct 2 showed, well short of the 84,000 increase Caixin said had been expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, both outlets reported. [ 1 , 2 ]
The report also revised earlier figures lower. August payrolls were cut to 133,000, a reduction of 29,000 from the initial reading, and July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, Caixin reported. Together the two months were revised down by 60,000, according to both outlets. [ 1 , 2 ]
In sector detail reported by China News Service, healthcare added 17,000 jobs in September, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000, while financial activities shed 7,000. The outlet said financial-sector employment has fallen by 129,000 since May 2025, with most of the losses at insurance companies and related industries. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 5 cents to $37.81, up 3.0% from a year earlier. [ 2 ]
China News Service cited Bloomberg as saying the below-forecast gains and slowing wage growth showed some employers becoming more cautious about hiring as costs rise, and that the report should sharply lower the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in October. The Wall Street Journal said the report gave Fed officials little reason to change their basic judgment on the US economy and removed a potential obstacle to keeping rates unchanged, the outlet reported. [ 2 ]
Markets reacted immediately. Caixin reported that US stocks opened higher, with the Dow up 400 points, and that the 10-year US Treasury yield eased to around 5.20% after touching new highs in preceding days. [ 1 ]
The two outlets gave different readings of rate expectations. Caixin said the probability of no Fed rate increase before the midterm elections had risen to 83%, while China News Service said the CME FedWatch tool showed a 77.3% probability that the Fed would hold rates at its October meeting. Neither outlet reported a Fed decision or statement. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
The report is being read mainly as a signal for Fed policy: both outlets said it lowered the odds of an October rate increase, and Caixin reported that the probability of no hike before the midterm elections rose to 83%. Markets moved on the release, with US stocks opening higher and the 10-year Treasury yield easing, according to Caixin. The data also describe a US labour market that the two outlets call weaker than expected, with gains concentrated in healthcare and construction while financial-sector employment shrinks.
Key facts
- US employers added 29,000 jobs in September; Caixin said the forecast was 84,000 and both outlets described the result as below expectations. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August. [ 1 , 2 ]
- August payrolls were revised down to 133,000 and July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000; the two months were revised down by 60,000 in total. [ 1 , 2 ]
- By sector, healthcare added 17,000 jobs, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000, while financial activities lost 7,000; financial-sector employment is down 129,000 since May 2025, mostly at insurers and related industries. [ 2 ]
- Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 5 cents to $37.81, up 3.0% from a year earlier. [ 2 ]
- US stocks opened higher after the release, with the Dow up 400 points, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 5.20%. [ 1 ]
- Caixin said the probability of no Fed rate increase before the midterm elections rose to 83%; China News Service said CME FedWatch showed a 77.3% probability of no change at the October meeting. [ 1 , 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The US Labor Department reported that September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 and that the unemployment rate was 4.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from August's 4.1%. [ 1 , 2 ]
- July and August payroll figures were revised down by a combined 60,000, with August revised to 133,000. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Both outlets reported that the data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise rates in October. [ 1 , 2 ]
Still unclear
- How likely the Fed is to hold rates in October: Caixin said the probability of no rate increase before the midterm elections had risen to 83%, while China News Service said CME FedWatch showed a 77.3% probability of rates being held at the October meeting. The two outlets cite different figures and different time frames, and neither reports an actual Fed decision or statement.
- The expected September payroll figure of 84,000 appears only in Caixin's report. Single-source number; China News Service describes the result as below expectations without giving a forecast value.
- The sector and wage breakdown — healthcare plus 17,000, construction plus 11,000, manufacturing plus 9,000, financial activities minus 7,000, and average hourly earnings of $37.81 — appears only in the China News Service report. Single-source detail attributed by that outlet to US Labor Department data.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- On Oct 2, Caixin publishes its report on the September employment data, citing a 29,000 payroll gain, the 60,000 downward revision to July and August, a 400-point rise in the Dow and the 10-year Treasury yield easing to around 5.20%. [ 1 ]
- On Oct 3, China News Service publishes a detailed report from Washington with the sector and wage figures and the CME FedWatch reading of a 77.3% probability that the Fed holds rates in October. [ 2 ]