Fed September minutes: inflation still high, most officials see another hike this year
In short
The US Federal Reserve on October 7 released the minutes of its September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which show all members agreed to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. Most participants judged that a further increase before the end of the year may be appropriate, and participants said inflation remains high relative to the 2% target.
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The US Federal Reserve on October 7, local time, released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on September 15-16. According to the minutes, reported by 36Kr and Jiemian citing CCTV News, all members agreed to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% in support of the committee's dual mandate. The minutes said that most participants judged that a further increase in the target range before the end of the year may be appropriate, meaning that at the September meeting most officials still expected at least one more hike this year. [ 2 , 5 ]
The minutes said inflation remains high relative to the committee's 2% target. Participants noted that inflation remained elevated and that not enough progress had been made in recent months in bringing it down. They pointed to ongoing geopolitical tensions pushing up crude oil and refined product prices, and said a surge in artificial intelligence-related investment had added to inflation pressure. Yicai also headlined its coverage on inflation remaining high. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 ]
Yicai reported that the minutes show differences among officials over the reasons for the hike, and that many officials regarded the increase as a precautionary move against sticky inflation. Yicai also said rates may be raised once more this year. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
According to the reports, the minutes indicate that at the September meeting most officials still expected at least one more rate increase this year. Chinese business and tech outlets covered the release, with the minutes citing geopolitical pressure on oil prices and a surge in AI-related investment as sources of inflation pressure.
Key facts
- The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 15-16 FOMC meeting on October 7, local time. [ 2 , 5 ]
- All members agreed to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. [ 2 , 5 ]
- Most participants judged that a further increase in the target range before the end of the year may be appropriate. [ 2 , 3 , 5 ]
- Inflation remains high relative to the committee's 2% target, and participants said not enough progress had been made in recent months in lowering it. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 ]
- Participants said ongoing geopolitical tensions pushed up crude oil and refined product prices, and a surge in AI-related investment added to inflation pressure. [ 2 , 5 ]
- Yicai reported that officials differed over the reasons for the hike, with many viewing it as a precaution against sticky inflation. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, with all members in agreement. [ 2 , 5 ]
- Most participants judged a further rate increase before year-end may be appropriate. [ 2 , 3 , 5 ]
- The minutes say inflation remains high relative to the 2% target. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 ]
Still unclear
- Whether many officials viewed the hike as a precaution against sticky inflation, and how deep the disagreement over its rationale was. Reported only by Yicai, in a short summary without detail.
- The 36Kr and Jiemian reports of the minutes' details. Both reports carry the same text attributed to CCTV News, so they are not independent accounts.