Aramco CEO: Rebuilding oil inventories after Hormuz crisis may take two years
In short
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the global squeeze on crude and refined fuel supplies is set to worsen and that rebuilding inventories depleted during the Strait of Hormuz crisis could take up to two years even after the waterway fully reopens and confidence returns. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, he said almost 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since the conflict began, while about 1 billion barrels have been released from stocks. Nasser said the system is already straining and that less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain, most of which is not practically available.
Read the full story 2 min read
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said on Monday that the global squeeze on crude oil and refined fuel supplies is set to worsen and that rebuilding stockpiles depleted during the Strait of Hormuz crisis could take up to two years, even after the strategic waterway fully reopens and market confidence returns. Nasser made the remarks at the Energy Intelligence conference and forum in London, according to the documents. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Nasser said almost 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since the start of the conflict, while about 1 billion barrels have been released from stocks to help offset the shortfall. Economy Middle East reported he said more than 1 billion barrels were drawn from global stocks. The world entered the crisis with almost 10 billion barrels of global oil stocks, Nasser said, and the supply losses were roughly half the crude and products that would normally have moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the same period. [ 1 , 2 ]
Nasser said the remaining roughly 6 billion barrels of oil in storage should not be considered practically available to the market. Economy Middle East reported him saying less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain, with the vast majority not practically available. Most of the more than 1 billion barrels released came from onshore commercial inventories, which Nasser described as the “last major tool in the box.” “The system is already straining,” he said, warning that the global supply resilience cushion is now “scarily thin.” [ 1 , 2 ]
He warned that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify until Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns. Nasser said pressure has been particularly acute in refined products, with fuel prices rising more sharply than crude prices. He also warned that a prolonged disruption could have consequences extending beyond energy markets, with ocean freight affected, supply chains tightening and concerns growing over inflation and the availability of essential goods. [ 1 , 2 ]
On export recovery, Gulf News cited an earlier Kpler report suggesting oil exports have come back to pre-war levels. According to Gulf News, Nasser said this comes from commercial inventories held by refiners, traders and other market participants, rather than reserves that can be relied upon indefinitely. Nasser said producers and refiners would have to rebuild inventories while continuing to meet global oil demand, keeping supply conditions tight well after the immediate shipping disruption has eased. He said emergency reserves might buy a winter but cannot fix long-term supply. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
Nasser’s warning implies prolonged tight oil supply and higher refined-product costs even if shipping through Hormuz normalises, with possible knock-on effects on freight, supply chains, inflation and the availability of essential goods, according to the documents. The two-year estimate matters because it separates restoring physical oil flows from restoring the market’s broader balance.
Key facts
- Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said replenishing global oil inventories depleted during the Strait of Hormuz crisis could take up to two years, even after the waterway fully reopens and market confidence returns. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nasser made the remarks at the Energy Intelligence Forum/conference in London on Monday. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- He said almost 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since the conflict began. [ 1 , 2 ]
- He said about 1 billion barrels have been released from stocks to offset the shortfall; Economy Middle East reported more than 1 billion barrels were drawn from global stocks. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Gulf News reported Nasser saying the remaining roughly 6 billion barrels of oil in storage should not be considered practically available, while Economy Middle East reported him saying less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain, with the vast majority not practically available. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Nasser said pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify until Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns. [ 1 ]
- He said the system is already straining. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Nasser said pressure has been particularly acute in refined products, with fuel prices rising more sharply than crude prices. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said replenishing global oil inventories depleted during the Strait of Hormuz crisis could take up to two years even after the waterway fully reopens and market confidence returns. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nasser made the remarks at the Energy Intelligence Forum/conference in London on Monday. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nasser said almost 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since the conflict began. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Nasser said about or more than 1 billion barrels have been released from stocks to offset the shortfall. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Nasser said the system is already straining. [ 1 , 2 ]
Still unclear
- When and how the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen. The documents refer to a full reopening but do not say when or how it will happen.
- The amount and category of remaining usable oil inventories. Gulf News said roughly 6 billion barrels of oil in storage should not be considered practically available; Economy Middle East said less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain, with the vast majority not practically available. The documents differ on the figure and the category of inventories, and neither resolves the discrepancy.
- Whether oil exports have returned to pre-war levels. Gulf News cited an earlier Kpler report suggesting they had, while saying Nasser attributed the recovery to commercial inventories rather than reserves that can be relied upon indefinitely. The Kpler finding is referenced second-hand and the documents do not provide independent confirmation.
- The conflict or crisis that disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Documents refer to a conflict and crisis but do not describe what caused it or when it began.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Gulf News publishes Nasser’s remarks from the Energy Intelligence conference in London, including his warning that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify until Hormuz fully reopens. [ 1 ]
- Economy Middle East reports Nasser told the 2026 Energy Intelligence Forum that rebuilding inventories could take up to two years and that emergency reserves cannot fix long-term supply. [ 2 ]
- Arabian Business reports Nasser’s warning that the Hormuz disruption could take two years to replenish oil inventories. [ 3 ]