Tropical Depression Nine forecast to become Hurricane Isaias, threaten Gulf Coast
In short
Tropical Depression Nine formed in the southwestern Gulf with 35 mph winds and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias and then a hurricane on Thursday, CNN reported. It is expected to reach Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds as it nears the coast, where flooding rain, strong winds and storm surge could hit from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. CNN said the exact track and the storm’s strength at landfall are still not settled.
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Tropical Depression Nine formed in the southwestern Gulf and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday, CNN reported. The depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was located about 630 miles southwest of the Louisiana coast. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias soon and then a hurricane on Thursday, which CNN said would make it the first hurricane of an Atlantic season squashed by El Niño. [ 1 ]
Forecasters expect the system to track quickly north, bringing flooding rain, powerful winds and storm surge, with likely impacts from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The current forecast shows it reaching Category 2 strength with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph as it heads toward the coast. [ 1 ]
Whether it holds that strength is uncertain. Gulf water is record warm for this time of year and primed to fuel the system, and wind shear is low in the southern Gulf, which CNN said would allow it to thrive. Higher, storm-killing wind shear is in place closer to the Gulf Coast, which would weaken the system on its approach, but the storm is also forecast to move quickly, so its exposure to that shear may be limited. If it were to move more slowly, CNN said, it could weaken quickly in the hostile conditions. [ 1 ]
CNN reported that exactly where the storm could track and how strong it will be when it approaches land are still not set in stone, and that anyone along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend needs to monitor the forecast closely. No matter its final fate, heavy rain is a concern on the Gulf Coast and in other parts of the South by late this week, CNN reported. [ 1 ]
The New York Times published an item titled “Here’s the latest” on Tuesday evening; the material available carried no summary text. NPR published an item on Wednesday about rising borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and higher education, which did not address the Gulf system in the material available. [ 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The system threatens flooding rain, strong winds and storm surge along a stretch of the northern Gulf Coast, and CNN said anyone from Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend should monitor the forecast closely. Because the track and landfall strength remain uncertain, the areas most affected and the severity of the impacts could still change.
Key facts
- Tropical Depression Nine has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is about 630 miles southwest of the Louisiana coast, according to CNN. [ 1 ]
- The depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias soon and strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday, CNN reported. [ 1 ]
- CNN reported it would be the first hurricane of an Atlantic season squashed by El Niño. [ 1 ]
- The current forecast shows it reaching Category 2 strength with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph as it heads toward the coast. [ 1 ]
- Flooding rain, powerful winds and storm surge are likely to affect areas from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, CNN reported. [ 1 ]
- Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, but higher wind shear near the coast may weaken the system, CNN reported. [ 1 ]
- CNN said the exact track and the storm’s strength when it approaches land are not set in stone. [ 1 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Nothing is confirmed by two independent outlets yet.
Still unclear
- Exactly where the storm could track and how strong it will be when it approaches land. CNN reported these are “still not set in stone,” and its account is the only one in the documents giving such detail.
- Whether the storm will weaken before landfall. CNN said low wind shear in the southern Gulf should let the system strengthen, while higher wind shear closer to the coast could weaken it, though its fast forward speed may limit that exposure.
- Details of the system from outlets other than CNN. The New York Times item carried only the headline “Here’s the latest” with no summary text, and NPR’s item concerned borrowing costs rather than the Gulf system.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- CNN publishes its forecast: Tropical Depression Nine has 35 mph winds, sits about 630 miles southwest of the Louisiana coast and is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. [ 1 ]
- The New York Times publishes an item titled “Here’s the latest,” with no summary text available in the source material. [ 2 ]
- NPR publishes an item on borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and higher education; the available summary does not mention the Gulf system. [ 3 ]