Gulf tropical depression forecast to become Atlantic season’s first hurricane
In short
A tropical depression formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon and is forecast to become the Atlantic season’s first hurricane later this week, with a possible US landfall early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters say the most likely landfall area runs from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and the system could bring up to 10 inches of rain to parts of the central US. The 2026 Atlantic season has been unusually quiet, with only eight tropical storms so far.
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A tropical depression formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon and US forecasters expect it to strengthen into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane later this week, with a possible US landfall early Saturday. The Boston Globe reported the depression formed Tuesday afternoon and was drifting east, then north towards the Gulf Coast. Reuters reported the US is forecasting a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
The Guardian US reported that the National Hurricane Center placed the system, Tropical Depression Nine, about 630 miles south-west of the mouth of the Mississippi River on Tuesday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The NHC expects it to grow into a tropical storm by Wednesday before potentially becoming a hurricane on Thursday as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico, the Guardian US said. [ 3 ]
If it reaches hurricane strength, it would be the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. The Guardian US, citing the Associated Press, said the first hurricane of the season has not formed this late since 8 October 1905. The Boston Globe reported that a century-old record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane is Oct. 8, but said the current odds of a hurricane are low, describing an atmospheric tug-of-war between warm Gulf water and elevated wind shear. [ 1 , 3 ]
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said the forecast track has the storm avoiding the strongest wind shear, “which should foster strengthening, until the end of the week when it approaches the central Gulf coast, at which point it should start to lose wind intensity,” the Guardian US reported. AccuWeather said the most likely landfall area stretches from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The Boston Globe said it is still too early for a definitive track and described a scenario taking the system towards Louisiana and Texas. [ 1 , 3 ]
On impacts, the NHC expects 3-6 inches of rain across parts of the central US from Friday through the weekend, with some areas potentially receiving as much as 10 inches, according to the Guardian US, which also reported possible flash, urban and isolated river flooding, strong winds, dangerous surf and rip currents. AccuWeather said gusts of 60-80 mph could occur near the centre, with stronger gusts possible, if the system reaches hurricane strength. The Boston Globe noted the Gulf’s exceptionally warm water could also fuel rapid intensification. [ 1 , 3 ]
The 2026 Atlantic season has been unusually quiet. The Boston Globe reported only eight tropical storms so far, which it attributed to a Super El Niño that kept strong wind shear in place across the Atlantic, while the Pacific has produced 20 named storms and 10 hurricanes. The Globe also reported that Gulf sea surface temperatures have set new daily record highs since the third week of August, and that the Atlantic season runs until Nov. 30. Ars Technica noted the Atlantic tropics year has been exceptionally quiet to date. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
A hurricane in the Gulf would be the first of an Atlantic season that has so far produced only tropical storms, and forecasters say it could make US landfall early Saturday. The documents describe potential flooding, strong winds and rip currents from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. If it reaches hurricane strength, it would also set a new record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane, according to the outlets.
Key facts
- A tropical depression formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon, according to the Boston Globe and the Guardian US. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The National Hurricane Center said the system was about 630 miles south-west of the mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. [ 3 ]
- The NHC expects the depression to become a tropical storm by Wednesday and potentially a hurricane on Thursday as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico, the Guardian US reported. [ 3 ]
- If it becomes a hurricane, it would be the first of the 2026 Atlantic season; the Guardian US, citing the Associated Press, said the first hurricane has not formed this late since 8 October 1905. [ 3 ]
- AccuWeather, reported by the Guardian US, said the storm is expected to turn north-east towards the central Gulf coast with a possible US landfall early Saturday, most likely from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. [ 3 ]
- The NHC expects 3-6 inches of rain across parts of the central US from Friday through the weekend, with some areas potentially receiving as much as 10 inches, and possible flash, urban and isolated river flooding, the Guardian US reported. [ 3 ]
- The Boston Globe reported that there have been only eight tropical storms in the 2026 Atlantic season, which it attributed to a Super El Niño keeping strong wind shear in place, and that Gulf sea surface temperatures have set new daily record highs since the third week of August. [ 1 ]
- The Atlantic season runs until Nov. 30, the Boston Globe reported. [ 1 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- A tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and forecasters expect it to strengthen. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The system is forecast to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
- The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet so far, with no hurricane yet. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the system will actually reach hurricane strength. The Boston Globe reported the odds of a hurricane are currently low and described an “atmospheric tug-of-war,” while the Guardian US and AccuWeather expect strengthening as the storm avoids the strongest wind shear.
- Where the storm will go and where it might make landfall. The Boston Globe said it is still early for a definitive track and described a scenario taking the system towards Louisiana and Texas; AccuWeather, reported by the Guardian US, put the most likely landfall area between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- The Boston Globe reports a tropical depression formed in the Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, drifting east and then north towards the Gulf Coast later in the week. [ 1 ]
- Ars Technica notes the Atlantic tropics year has so far been exceptionally quiet. [ 2 ]
- The Guardian US reports the National Hurricane Center expects the depression to become a tropical storm by Wednesday and potentially a hurricane on Thursday, with a possible US landfall early Saturday. [ 3 ]
- Reuters reports the US forecasts a hurricane later this week in the Gulf of Mexico. [ 4 ]