Brent rises above $102 a barrel on Middle East supply risks and US storm
In short
Brent crude December futures traded above $102 a barrel on 7 October, with Interfax reporting $101.98 at 17:48 Moscow time and Kommersant citing $102.59 at 16:40 before prices eased. Reports attributed the rise to risks to Middle East supply and a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico that forecasters expect to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026. US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.186 million barrels last week, against analyst expectations of an increase, the US Energy Ministry said.
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Brent crude December futures traded above $102 a barrel on 7 October. Kommersant reported the contract at $102.59 at 16:40 Moscow time, Interfax put it at $101.98 at 17:48 — up $1.40, or 1.39% — and Vedomosti reported $101.49 at 18:27, up 0.86% since the session opened. Kommersant said the price had eased to about $101.9 by 18:45. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was reported at $89.8 at 17:48 by Interfax and at $89.49 at 18:27 by Vedomosti, which said WTI had momentarily reached $91. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The documents attribute the move to two supply risks. Interfax, citing Vitol data, said tankers had shipped about 12 million barrels a day of oil and 2 million barrels a day of oil products out of the Middle East over the previous 7–10 days, while market participants continued to watch fuel supplies from the region. The same report quoted Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an adviser to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as saying shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran considers illegal would soon be closed. [ 1 ]
Interfax also reported that Houthi forces fired two ballistic missiles and several explosive-laden drones at Aden international airport on the morning of 7 October. One missile landed near the runway minutes before a Yemenia flight from Cairo was due to arrive, and the aircraft was redirected to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, the report said. [ 1 ]
On the US side, Interfax reported that commercial crude inventories fell by 3.186 million barrels last week, while analysts polled by Trading Economics had on average expected a rise of 1.7 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 382,000 barrels and distillates fell by 42,000 barrels, against expectations of larger declines in both, the report said, while stocks at the Cushing terminal rose by 444,000 barrels. [ 1 ]
Vedomosti reported that US forecasters expect a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days and probably to strike oil and gas facilities. Offshore areas in the storm's path account for 15% of all US crude oil and 5% of natural gas output, the outlet said. PVM analyst Tamas Varga told Reuters that investors were unconvinced about the durability of recent growth in supply and exports from the Middle East, and that prices had also been affected by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, according to Vedomosti. KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer called the storm an “unwanted complication for the oil market, raising the likelihood of disruptions to production and refining at a time when the market is already facing enough supply problems”. [ 2 ]
Why it matters
Brent is a global benchmark, so a move above $100 a barrel feeds into fuel and freight costs well beyond the countries directly involved. The documents tie the current level to two supply risks — disruption around the Middle East and a hurricane threatening US offshore production — rather than to a change in demand.
Key facts
- Brent December futures on ICE traded above $102 a barrel during 7 October, per Kommersant and Vedomosti. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Interfax reported Brent at $101.98 a barrel at 17:48 Moscow time, up $1.40 or 1.39%. [ 1 ]
- US commercial crude inventories fell 3.186 million barrels last week, while analysts polled by Trading Economics had expected a rise of 1.7 million barrels, according to the US Energy Ministry. [ 1 ]
- Vitol data cited by Interfax said tankers moved about 12 million barrels a day of oil and 2 million barrels a day of oil products out of the Middle East over the previous 7–10 days. [ 1 ]
- An adviser to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Reza Naghdi, said shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran considers illegal would soon be closed, Interfax reported. [ 1 ]
- Houthi forces fired two ballistic missiles and several explosive-laden drones at Aden international airport on the morning of 7 October, and a Yemenia flight from Cairo was redirected to Jeddah, according to Interfax. [ 1 ]
- A storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026, and offshore areas in its path account for 15% of US crude oil and 5% of natural gas output, Vedomosti reported, citing US forecasters. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- Where Brent settled and in which direction it moved into the close of trading. The three documents give different snapshots at different times — $102.59 at 16:40, $101.98 at 17:48 and $101.9 at 18:45 — so the direction after the last reading is not established.
- Whether shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. This is a single-source claim, attributed by Interfax to an adviser to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with no timeframe given beyond “soon”.
- Whether the storm in the Gulf of Mexico will actually hit oil and gas infrastructure. The documents report a forecast and expected path, not a confirmed impact on production.
- US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.186 million barrels last week, according to the US Energy Ministry. Reported by a single source so far