NFL urges Supreme Court to rule on prediction markets, backs state regulation
In short
The NFL filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 8 supporting New Jersey in its dispute with Kalshi, arguing that sports prediction contracts are gambling and should be regulated by states. According to the brief, the NFL accounted for $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction market trading volume on the first Sunday of this season. Kalshi said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the league's concerns.
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The National Football League filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday, Oct. 8, supporting New Jersey's request that the justices decide who has authority to regulate prediction markets. The league argues that sports-related event contracts are gambling that should fall under state law, rather than financial swaps regulated exclusively by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as Kalshi has argued in court. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 , 7 ]
According to the brief, more than half of prediction market trading volume on the first Sunday of this season, $1.8 billion out of $3.3 billion, was connected to the NFL. "Billions of dollars will be bet on NFL games through prediction markets each season, and any delay from the Court will result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity," the league wrote. CBS News reported that the NFL asked the court to decide the question before the end of the season in January. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ]
The league said it is concerned about contracts vulnerable to manipulation, such as a kicker intentionally missing a field goal, and about bets tied to injuries, officiating and other information insiders could know in advance. It said the CFTC and prediction market operators have declined to adopt its list of prohibited wagers or to set a minimum betting age of 21; on Kalshi, customers can be 18. The NFL also questioned whether the CFTC has the staff and resources to oversee such markets. The league told CNBC it is not opposed to prediction markets, but "given the current resource constraints of the CFTC, this is a job better left to the states." [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 7 ]
Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the CFTC's ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the NFL's concerns. "Contrary to the NFL's statements, the CFTC is actively policing sports-related markets," she said, pointing to Kalshi's partnerships with the NHL, Major League Baseball and other sports organizations. Fox News reported that the CFTC said it has been in touch with the league, but that the league has not entered an agreement to work with it. [ 1 , 5 , 6 ]
New Jersey asked the Supreme Court in September to review the case after federal appeals courts issued conflicting decisions. UPI, citing ESPN, reported that the 3rd Circuit ruled New Jersey cannot enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi, while the 9th Circuit ruled against Kalshi in Nevada. CBS News reported that the NFL endorsed rulings from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits favouring state regulation, that a bipartisan coalition of states made a similar plea to the court the day before, and that at least 10 states have taken legal action against prediction market platforms. The Hill reported that under the Trump administration the CFTC has sided with prediction markets and sued numerous states that moved to enforce their gambling laws against the platforms. [ 2 , 3 , 7 ]
Why it matters
The brief adds the NFL to New Jersey and a bipartisan coalition of states asking the Supreme Court to settle whether states or the federal government regulate prediction markets, after appeals courts reached conflicting decisions. The outcome would determine whether state gambling rules, such as a minimum betting age of 21, apply to platforms such as Kalshi, where customers can be 18.
Key facts
- The NFL filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court supporting New Jersey's request for the court to decide who has authority to regulate prediction markets. [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 , 7 ]
- The league argues sports-related event contracts are gambling, not federally regulated swaps. [ 1 , 2 , 7 ]
- On the first Sunday of this season, $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction market trading volume was connected to the NFL, according to the brief. [ 4 , 6 ]
- The NFL wants a minimum age of 21 for bettors; on Kalshi customers can be as young as 18. [ 1 , 2 , 7 ]
- The league said the CFTC and prediction market operators have not banned bets it considers susceptible to manipulation. [ 1 , 3 , 7 ]
- New Jersey asked the Supreme Court in September to review the case after conflicting appeals court decisions. [ 2 , 3 , 7 ]
- Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the CFTC's ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the NFL's concerns. [ 1 , 6 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The NFL filed an amicus brief at the Supreme Court in support of New Jersey in the prediction markets dispute. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 , 7 ]
- According to the NFL, football accounted for $1.8 billion, more than half, of prediction market trading volume on the first Sunday of the season. [ 1 , 4 , 6 ]
- The NFL objects that prediction markets allow bettors as young as 18, while it wants a minimum age of 21. [ 1 , 2 , 7 ]
- Kalshi and other prediction markets argue their contracts are swaps regulated by the CFTC, while states say they are gambling under state jurisdiction. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 ]
- Kalshi said the CFTC's ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the NFL's concerns. [ 1 , 6 ]
Still unclear
- Which appeals court rulings make up the split. UPI, citing ESPN, cites the 3rd Circuit ruling against New Jersey and the 9th Circuit ruling against Kalshi, while CBS News says the NFL backed rulings from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits favouring state regulation.
- Whether the CFTC has the resources to oversee sports-related contracts. The NFL questions the agency's staffing and resources, while Kalshi says the CFTC is actively policing these markets.
- The state of contacts between the CFTC and the NFL. Only Fox News reports the CFTC saying it has been in touch with the league, which has not entered an agreement to work with it.
- Whether and when the Supreme Court will take up the case. The documents do not report any response from the court.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- CNBC reports the NFL is taking its prediction markets fight to the Supreme Court with an amicus brief backing New Jersey. [ 1 ]
- The Hill reports the NFL's filing urging the justices to take up the case. [ 2 ]
- Associated Press reports the brief's figure of $1.8 billion out of $3.3 billion in first-Sunday trading volume. [ 4 ]
- CBS News reports the NFL wants a decision before the end of the season in January. [ 7 ]
- Reuters reports the NFL backs Supreme Court review in the betting oversight case. [ 10 ]