Japan forecasts new typhoon near Marshall Islands, with later track uncertain
In short
Japan's weather agency forecast on October 14 that a tropical depression near the Marshall Islands would become a typhoon within 24 hours, local outlets reported. It would be the year's 30th typhoon, while longer-range simulations differed over its possible approach to Japan.
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A tropical depression near the Marshall Islands was expected to develop into a typhoon within 24 hours, Japan's weather agency announced on October 14, according to TBS NEWS DIG and Nishi-Nippon Shimbun. The announcement was issued at 1:05 p.m. At noon, the system was near 9 degrees north and 160 degrees 30 minutes east, moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour. Nishi-Nippon Shimbun reported a central pressure of 1,004 hectopascals. [ 37 , 40 ]
The agency's forecast described the system becoming a typhoon by noon on October 15, then turning westward. Nishi-Nippon Shimbun reported a projected position near the Truk Islands on October 17 and the Mariana Islands on October 18. It was forecast to become a strong typhoon by October 19, with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals, maximum winds of 35 metres per second and gusts of 50 metres per second. These were forecast conditions, rather than measurements of the system's current strength. [ 40 ]
The outlook beyond that period was less settled. Livedoor News described Japanese simulations showing the system approaching Honshu around October 23, another forecast showing it slowing and stalling east of Okinawa after October 21, and a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts artificial-intelligence model showing a track across Japan. The report stressed that no model could yet be judged correct and that forecasts would change with the system's development and route. If the depression becomes a typhoon, it would be the year's 30th, marking the first year to reach that number since 2013. Nishi-Nippon Shimbun reported that the agency urged attention to the latest typhoon information. [ 38 , 40 ]
Why it matters
The system could strengthen as it moves toward the Mariana Islands, according to the reported forecast. Its later path and effects on Japan remain uncertain, with different models showing approaches to Honshu, stalling east of Okinawa or crossing Japan.
Key facts
- The Japan Meteorological Agency's October 14 announcement forecast development into a typhoon within 24 hours. [ 37 , 40 ]
- At noon on October 14, the depression was near the Marshall Islands and moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour. [ 37 , 40 ]
- The reported noon central pressure was 1,004 hectopascals. [ 40 ]
- If it becomes a typhoon, it will be the year's 30th, the first year to reach 30 since 2013. [ 19 , 35 , 40 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- The system's later route and effects on Japan. Long-range models show differing tracks, and the reports stress that forecasts may change.