Bolsonaro's son leads Brazil's first round; Lula faces Oct. 25 runoff
Version 3: The first-round results are now reported: Flávio Bolsonaro led and finished first, no candidate won a majority, the race goes to an Oct. 25 runoff, and Lula is shaking up his campaign while right-wing gains in Congress are reported.
In short
Brazilians voted on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, in the first round of a presidential election between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, and no candidate won a majority, sending the race to an Oct. 25 runoff. The Wall Street Journal reported Flávio Bolsonaro finished first, leaving Lula an uphill fight; The New York Times reported Bolsonaro was leading. Lula was set to shake up his campaign on Monday, while Reuters reported a right-wing wave in Brazil's Congress boosted the Bolsonaro camp.
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Brazilians voted on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, in the first round of a presidential election between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, with a runoff on Oct. 25 required if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes. Late on election day, Bloomberg reported, citing the pollster Datafolha, that the two were projected to go to a runoff. The Wall Street Journal reported that Flávio Bolsonaro finished first, leaving Lula “an uphill fight ahead of an Oct. 25 runoff.” The New York Times reported that neither candidate won a majority but that Mr. Bolsonaro was leading the race. No official vote totals appear in the documents. [ 1 , 7 , 11 , 12 , 14 ]
On Monday, Lula was to try to shake up his campaign after losing the first round to Flávio Bolsonaro, according to The Seattle Times and PBS NewsHour. Reuters reported that a right-wing wave in Brazil's Congress boosted the Bolsonaro camp ahead of the runoff. The Boston Globe, in a news analysis, said the results boost the ascendant right in Latin America and place Brazil, the region's most populous country, within reach as the biggest electoral prize following seven straight wins by right-wing candidates. [ 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 ]
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Axios reported he is a lawyer who has represented Rio de Janeiro in Brazil's Senate since 2019 and has pledged to continue his father's political legacy, campaigning on conservative social policies, tax cuts and a tougher approach to crime. Newsweek reported Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss to Lula and is barred from running. Lula, 80, is running in his seventh presidential election and has strengthened Brazil's ties with Beijing, PBS NewsHour reported; Axios said he campaigned on state-led development, income redistribution and welfare programs. [ 1 , 2 , 7 ]
Lula told journalists after voting Sunday that he needs “to do double of what we have done” if reelected, and expressed confidence he would win in the first round, PBS NewsHour reported. Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, and ten other candidates were expected to receive much smaller numbers of votes. [ 7 ]
The race has become a test of Trump's influence in the region. Axios reported that Trump said Thursday he was following Brazil's election “very closely” and called it “very important,” without endorsing a candidate. His administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on some Brazilian goods this summer, prompting Lula to accuse the American leader of “interference” in Brazil's affairs, and targeted Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the prosecution of the elder Bolsonaro. Newsweek and PBS NewsHour also reported sanctions on a Supreme Court justice, a visa standoff and terrorist designations for Brazil's largest gangs. Newsweek called the vote the biggest test yet of Trump's effort to line up friendly governments, following wins by Trump-endorsed candidates in Honduras last year and Colombia in June. [ 1 , 2 , 7 ]
Pre-election polling was close and outlets citing the same pollster gave different figures. Newsweek reported that a last wave of national surveys showed Lula ahead by one to six points in the first round, with the head-to-head runoff within the margin of error in three of four major polls, and that Datafolha had Lula at 45% to Bolsonaro's 42% in the first round and 47% to 46% in a runoff. Fox News reported Datafolha had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 38%, with Lula up three points in a runoff, and quoted electoral strategist Roberto Reis saying Datafolha “tends to underestimate the force and voting intention in candidates running against Lula or the Workers Party.” Axios noted that nearly 60% of the Amazon rainforest is in Brazil, giving the next president influence over an ecosystem with consequences far beyond the country's borders. [ 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
Brazil is Latin America's largest country and economy, and outlets describe the first-round result as a boost for the region's ascendant right, with the Boston Globe noting seven straight wins by right-wing candidates in the region. The runoff outcome could also reset Brazil's relationship with Washington, which has applied tariffs, sanctions on a Supreme Court justice and visa measures against Lula's government. Nearly 60% of the Amazon rainforest lies in Brazil, giving the next president influence over an ecosystem with effects beyond its borders.
Key facts
- Brazilians voted on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, in the first round of a presidential election between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro. [ 1 , 2 , 7 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 14 ]
- A runoff on Oct. 25 follows if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, which exclude blank and null ballots. [ 1 , 7 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 14 ]
- The Wall Street Journal reported Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the first round; The New York Times reported neither candidate won a majority and that Bolsonaro was leading. [ 12 , 14 ]
- Lula was to spend Monday trying to shake up his campaign after losing the first round to Flávio Bolsonaro, according to The Seattle Times and PBS NewsHour. [ 18 , 19 ]
- Reuters reported a right-wing wave in Brazil's Congress boosting the Bolsonaro camp ahead of the runoff. [ 20 ]
- Former President Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running and is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss to Lula, Newsweek reported. [ 2 , 7 ]
- The Trump administration imposed additional 25% tariffs on some Brazilian goods this summer and took other measures, including sanctions on a Supreme Court justice and a visa standoff, the outlets reported. [ 1 , 2 , 7 ]
- Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, and ten other candidates are expected to receive much smaller numbers of votes. [ 7 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Brazilians voted on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, in the first round of a presidential election between Lula and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 7 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13 , 14 ]
- A runoff on Oct. 25 will be held if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes. [ 1 , 7 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 14 ]
- No candidate won a majority in the first round, so the presidential race goes to an Oct. 25 runoff. [ 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 18 , 19 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round, with The Wall Street Journal reporting he finished first. [ 12 , 14 , 16 , 18 , 19 , 21 ]
- Lula planned to try to shake up his campaign on Monday after losing the first round. [ 18 , 19 ]
- Former President Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running and is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss to Lula. [ 2 , 7 ]
- The Trump administration has pressured Lula's government through tariffs and other measures, including sanctions on a Supreme Court justice and a visa standoff. [ 1 , 2 , 7 ]
Still unclear
- The official first-round vote totals for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The documents report the outcome through outlet reporting and a pollster projection, and no official first-round totals or percentages appear in them.
- The size of Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round lead. One outlet says Bolsonaro surged past Lula and another says he was leading, but no document gives the margin between them.
- The scale and composition of the right-wing wave in Brazil's Congress reported by Reuters. It appears only as a headline summary from one outlet, with no figures or detail.
- Pre-election poll numbers differed between outlets citing Datafolha: Newsweek reported 45% to 42% for Lula in the first round and 47% to 46% in a runoff, while Fox News reported 42% to 38% with Lula up three points in a runoff. Two outlets cite the same pollster with different figures, so the pre-vote margins cannot be stated precisely from the documents.
- Fox News said Lula “served time in jail for corruption in a massive payback bribery scandal.” No other document in this set mentions a corruption conviction or jail time for Lula, so the claim is single-source.
- Whether foreign interference in the election has occurred. Bloomberg reported concerns about possible foreign interference and Lula has warned of risks of U.S. intervention, but the documents report no confirmed instance.
- Whether Trump has endorsed a candidate. Axios reported that Trump did not endorse anyone when he said he was following the election closely; no endorsement is reported in any document.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Trump says he is following Brazil's election “very closely” and calls it “very important,” without endorsing a candidate, Axios reports. [ 1 ]
- A last wave of national surveys shows Lula ahead by one to six points in the first round, short of an outright majority, with the runoff statistically tied, Newsweek reports. [ 2 ]
- Newsweek reports final polls are too close to call ahead of Sunday's vote. [ 2 ]
- Fox News frames the election as a test of Latin America's conservative shift, citing Datafolha and aggregator figures. [ 3 ]
- PBS NewsHour reports Brazilians began voting; Lula speaks to journalists after voting, saying he needs “to do double of what we have done” if reelected. [ 7 ]
- Bloomberg reports, citing Datafolha, that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are projected to go to a runoff. [ 11 ]
- The Wall Street Journal reports Flávio Bolsonaro surged past Lula, setting up a runoff. [ 12 ]
- The New York Times reports neither candidate won a majority but Bolsonaro is leading the race. [ 14 ]
- Bloomberg reports the presidential vote goes to a second round, saying the numbers are stacked against Lula. [ 15 ]
- The New York Times reports Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round lead leaves Lula three weeks to find votes. [ 16 ]
- The Seattle Times reports Lula will spend Monday trying to shake up his campaign. [ 18 ]
- Reuters reports a right-wing wave in Brazil's Congress boosts the Bolsonaro camp ahead of the runoff. [ 20 ]