GOP super PAC pulls back from North Carolina Senate race, shifts money to Kansas
In short
The Senate Leadership Fund, the top Senate GOP super PAC, is halting its spending in North Carolina's Senate race and redirecting money to Kansas, according to multiple reports. Republicans had spent heavily behind nominee Michael Whatley, who polling shows trailing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Axios reported several key Republican super PACs have canceled October ad campaigns in the state.
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The Senate Leadership Fund, the foremost Senate GOP super PAC, is pausing its future spending in North Carolina's Senate race and instead launching a seven-figure ad buy in deep-red Kansas, according to Politico, which said the news was first reported by Semafor. NBC News reported that the group is cancelling the ads it had planned for North Carolina in October, a decision one person familiar with the move confirmed after the ad-tracking firm AdImpact reported the group was also removing funds from the state. Politico described the change as a pause; NBC News described it as a cancellation of October advertising. [ 1 , 2 ]
The pullback comes after heavy Republican investment in the state. Politico reported the Senate Leadership Fund previously spent more than $30 million to boost GOP nominee Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman. NBC News, citing AdImpact, said the group spent more than $17 million on the race in September alone. Whatley is facing former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic candidate, and public polling has continued to show Whatley unable to close the gap, according to Politico; Axios said polls show him several points behind. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
In Kansas, NBC News reported the race between GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton has become more competitive in the homestretch, even though the state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. AdImpact figures cited by NBC News show SLF has reserved more than $8 million in airtime in Kansas so far. [ 2 ]
The shift underscores the wider fight for the Senate majority. NBC News and Axios reported that Democrats need to net four seats to take control, and NBC News said Democrats are growing more optimistic as Trump's approval ratings drop and voters express frustration with high costs and the Iran war. Politico noted that Trump carried North Carolina in all three presidential runs and that Democrats have not won a Senate seat there since 2008. Axios, citing Politico, reported that neither Prosperity Action nor Old North Action plan to spend in North Carolina in October, and said the reduced spending could affect down-ballot Republicans. September spending in the state totaled $53 million for Republicans and $44 million for Democrats, per AdImpact. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Whatley campaign spokesperson DJ Griffin said the campaign was betting on undecided voters breaking for Republicans, according to Axios. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
The spending retreat is a signal about which races national Republican groups consider winnable in the final weeks before the midterms. Democrats need four pickups to take control of the Senate, and the shift of money toward Kansas suggests traditionally Republican states are now in play. Axios reported the reduced spending could also affect down-ballot Republicans in North Carolina.
Key facts
- The Senate Leadership Fund is pausing its future spending in North Carolina's Senate race and launching a seven-figure ad buy in Kansas, according to Politico, which said the news was first reported by Semafor. [ 1 ]
- NBC News reported the Senate Leadership Fund is canceling the ads it had planned for October in North Carolina, a move one person familiar with the decision confirmed. [ 2 ]
- Politico reported the group previously spent more than $30 million to boost GOP nominee Michael Whatley; NBC News, citing AdImpact, said the group spent more than $17 million on the race in September. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Republican nominee Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, is facing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Public polling has continued to show Whatley unable to close the gap against Cooper, and Axios said polls show Whatley several points behind. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the Senate, according to NBC News and Axios. [ 2 , 3 ]
- The Kansas Senate race between GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton has become more competitive, and SLF has reserved more than $8 million in airtime in Kansas, according to AdImpact. [ 2 ]
- In September, Republicans spent $53 million on North Carolina's Senate race and Democrats spent $44 million, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The Senate Leadership Fund is pulling back on spending in North Carolina's Senate race and directing money to Kansas. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Republican nominee Michael Whatley is trailing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in public polling. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Democrats need four seat pickups to win control of the Senate. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Republican outside groups are canceling October advertising in North Carolina. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the Senate Leadership Fund's move is a temporary pause or a permanent cancellation of its North Carolina spending. Politico described the move as pausing future spending, while NBC News reported that the group is canceling the ads it had planned for October; the documents do not resolve the difference.
- The size of the Senate Leadership Fund's Kansas advertising buy. Politico described a seven-figure ad buy, while NBC News, citing AdImpact, said SLF has reserved more than $8 million in airtime in Kansas; the two single-source figures differ in precision.
- Whether the Senate Leadership Fund or other Republican groups will return to North Carolina before Election Day. No document says whether further spending is planned in the state.
- How the reduced spending will affect Republican candidates further down the ballot in North Carolina. Axios said the reduced spending could affect down-ballot Republicans, but the documents give no further detail or confirmation.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Politico reports the Senate Leadership Fund is pausing future spending in North Carolina and launching a seven-figure ad buy in Kansas, news first reported by Semafor. [ 1 ]
- NBC News reports the Senate Leadership Fund is canceling its planned October ad spending in North Carolina, confirmed by two people with knowledge of the decision. [ 2 ]
- Axios reports several key Republican super PACs have canceled October ad campaigns in North Carolina, and that neither Prosperity Action nor Old North Action plan to spend in the state in October, per Politico. [ 3 ]