Brazil election goes to October 25 runoff; Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula
Version 3: The first-round result is now in: Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula with roughly 47% to 45%, and election authorities confirmed the two will meet in an October 25 runoff.
In short
Brazil's presidential election went to a runoff after no candidate won a majority of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the election authority said. Rightist Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, led incumbent leftist President Lula, 80, with about 47% to about 45% as counting neared completion, according to Sankei Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun and Nippon TV News. The two will meet again on October 25.
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Brazil's presidential election will be decided in a runoff on October 25 after no candidate won a majority of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the election authority said, according to NHK, Sankei Shimbun, TBS NEWS DIG, Asahi Shimbun and Nippon TV News. Rightist Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished first and incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, second. [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 12 , 14 , 19 ]
The reported tallies differed by counting stage. Sankei Shimbun, citing the election authority, put Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.28% and Lula at 44.87% with 98% counted; Asahi Shimbun reported 47.21% and 44.94% at 99.00%; Nippon TV News reported 47.04% and 45.15% at 99.97%. Asahi said polls had given Lula a slight edge, a result it said differed from the outcome, and Sankei said Flávio Bolsonaro came first against pre-election expectations. [ 10 , 13 , 14 , 19 ]
Twelve candidates ran, and a candidate needed a majority of valid votes to win outright. Jiji Press, which reported before the vote that a runoff was highly likely, cited a Datafolha poll released on October 1 that put Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38%, with a runoff matchup of 48% to 45%. Sankei cited a poll published on October 3 that put Lula at 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% in a runoff scenario. [ 2 , 4 , 10 , 12 , 14 , 19 ]
The economy and the cost of living were among voters' main concerns, Jiji Press reported. Marcos Matias, 35, who is self-employed in São Paulo, said Lula “did not fulfil” his promise of prosperity and that high interest rates were bankrupting companies, and said he would vote for Flávio Bolsonaro. Iracema Rodrigues, 59, who runs a clothing shop in Minas Gerais, said inflation had made business hard. Jiji reported that Lula acknowledged living costs are high but said inflation had been curbed compared with the previous administration, while Flávio Bolsonaro blamed the government for voters' debts and called for restraining spending and lowering prices without spelling out cuts. Nikkei listed economic and foreign policy as issues, and Sankei listed economic policy and public security. [ 2 , 4 , 10 ]
NHK reported that the vote came as the Trump administration increases its engagement in South America and rightists have won a series of elections in the region, asking whether Brazil would move away from a leftist government. Sankei said the Trump administration has made clear a “Donroe doctrine” of seeking predominance in the Western Hemisphere, with pro-US governments appearing across Latin America, and said attention was on whether that wave would reach Brazil. Nippon TV News reported that Lula has shown wariness of US interference while Flávio Bolsonaro takes a pro-US line; Nikkei said a rightist victory could mean a turn toward a pro-US, market-oriented approach. [ 6 , 10 , 16 , 19 ]
Sankei reported the new president takes office on January 5 next year for a four-year term, with about 158 million voters; Asahi put the electorate at about 159 million and said voting is optional for those aged 70 and over and for 16- and 17-year-olds, compulsory for ages 18 to 69, with a fine of 3.51 reais — about 100 yen — for abstaining without a valid reason. [ 10 , 14 ]
Why it matters
The runoff will be decided on the economy and the cost of living, the concerns Jiji Press heard from voters and small-business owners in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, and both candidates are pitching competing answers on inflation, interest rates and public spending. Whoever wins takes office in January for a four-year term. NHK and Sankei Shimbun framed the vote as part of a regional shift toward rightist, pro-US governments as the Trump administration increases its engagement in the Americas, so the second round is also a test of how far that wave reaches.
Key facts
- Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election went to a runoff after no candidate won a majority of valid votes. [ 8 , 10 , 14 , 19 ]
- Rightist Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, finished first with roughly 47% and incumbent leftist President Lula, 80, second with roughly 45%. [ 10 , 14 , 17 , 19 ]
- The runoff will be held on October 25, the election authority announced. [ 8 , 10 , 14 , 19 ]
- Twelve candidates ran in the first round. [ 2 , 4 , 10 , 12 , 14 , 19 ]
- Opinion polls before the vote had put Lula slightly ahead, including a Datafolha poll on October 1 giving him 42% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 38%. [ 2 , 14 ]
- Sankei Shimbun reported that the new president takes office on January 5 for a four-year term and that there are about 158 million voters. [ 10 ]
- NHK reported the vote came as the Trump administration increases its engagement in South America and rightists have won a series of elections in the region. [ 6 ]
- Nikkei said a rightist victory could mean a turn toward a pro-US, market-oriented government. [ 16 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Brazil held its presidential election on October 4. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 , 8 , 10 , 14 , 19 ]
- No candidate won a majority of valid votes, so the top two candidates advanced to a runoff. [ 8 , 10 , 12 , 14 , 19 ]
- The runoff will be held on October 25. [ 2 , 4 , 8 , 10 , 14 , 19 ]
- Rightist Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, and incumbent leftist President Lula, 80, will contest the runoff. [ 1 , 2 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 17 , 19 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the first round and Lula second. [ 9 , 10 , 13 , 14 , 17 , 19 ]
- Twelve candidates ran. [ 2 , 4 , 10 , 12 , 14 , 19 ]
- The election authority announced that the top two candidates would go to a second round. [ 8 , 10 , 14 , 19 ]
Still unclear
- The final certified first-round tallies. The documents report figures at different counting stages — 98% counted (Sankei Shimbun), 99.00% (Asahi Shimbun) and 99.97% (Nippon TV News) — with slightly different percentages, and none reports a completed count.
- The number of eligible voters. Sankei Shimbun reported about 158 million and Asahi Shimbun about 159 million.
- What specific spending cuts Flávio Bolsonaro would make if elected. Jiji Press reported before the first round that he has not made concrete spending-reduction measures clear, and no later document addresses it.
- Turnout in the first round. No document reports a turnout figure.
- The new president takes office on January 5 and serves a four-year term. Reported by a single source so far
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- NHK reports that voting is taking place, with pre-election polls showing a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. [ 1 ]
- Jiji Press reports on the race, the 12 candidates, the expected October 25 runoff and a Datafolha poll showing Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38%. [ 2 ]
- Nikkei reports that first-round voting has begun and that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are expected to fight a close race. [ 4 ]
- Yahoo! News Japan reports that the vote was held and that the view that the two leading candidates will advance to the October 25 runoff is dominant. [ 5 ]
- NHK reports that voting has begun, noting the Trump administration's increased engagement in South America and successive rightist election wins in the region. [ 6 ]
- NHK reports that the election authority says neither Flávio Bolsonaro nor Lula won a majority of valid votes and that a runoff will be held this month. [ 8 ]
- Sankei Shimbun reports that Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula will meet in the October 25 runoff, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.28% and Lula at 44.87% with 98% of votes counted. [ 10 ]
- Asahi Shimbun reports Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.21% and Lula at 44.94% with 99.00% counted, saying the result differed from opinion polls that had given Lula a slight edge. [ 14 ]
- Nippon TV News reports Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.04% and Lula at 45.15% with 99.97% counted, and the election authority's announcement that the top two advance to the October 25 runoff. [ 19 ]