Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil first round; presidential runoff set for Oct. 25
Version 3: The first-round results are now in: Flávio Bolsonaro led Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and both advanced to a 25 October runoff, with outlets reporting differing vote tallies and Lula saying he is ready for the one-on-one contest.
In short
Brazil's presidential election will be decided in a 25 October runoff after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro led incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round, according to the Supreme Electoral Court. TASS reported Bolsonaro took 47.42% and Lula 44.70%; Vedomosti, citing the same court, gave 47.03% and 45.16%. Lula said he is ready for a one-on-one fight in the second round.
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Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on 4 October, and no candidate won more than 50% of the vote, so a second round will be held on 25 October, according to Interfax, Vedomosti and Meduza. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advanced to the runoff, data from Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court showed, as reported by Kommersant, RBC, Interfax, Vedomosti and TASS. Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula da Silva in the first round, the outlets reported. [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 10 , 12 ]
The outlets reported different first-round vote totals. TASS said Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.42% and Lula da Silva 44.70%. Vedomosti, citing the Supreme Electoral Court, gave Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% (56.1 million votes) and Lula da Silva 45.16% (53.9 million). TASS later said that after 99.70% of electronic protocols were processed, the senator had 47.09%. Meduza reported approximately 47% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 45% for Lula da Silva, citing Reuters and Brazil's Central Electoral Commission. Interfax, citing Folha de S.Paulo, said Flávio Bolsonaro led but did not give figures in its summary. [ 4 , 7 , 10 , 12 , 13 ]
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and a member of the right-wing Liberal Party, Interfax and Vedomosti reported. Lula da Silva is the incumbent and a member of the left-centrist Workers' Party; a win would give him a fourth term, Interfax reported. He served as president from 2003 to 2011 and won elections in 2002, 2006 and 2022, according to Interfax and Meduza. Meduza recalled that after the 2022 election Bolsonaro supporters stormed the parliament, Supreme Court and presidential palace, hundreds were detained, and Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in September 2025 over an attempted coup. [ 3 , 12 ]
During the campaign, Flávio Bolsonaro accused Lula da Silva of losses at state companies and of failing to fight organized crime, and advocated closer cooperation with the US administration, Interfax reported. Lula da Silva promised to invest in healthcare, education and housing, and his campaign circulated a video in late September accusing US President Donald Trump of trying to colonize Brazil by supporting Flávio Bolsonaro, Interfax reported. Pre-election polls cited by Interfax and Meduza had pointed to a different outcome: AtlasIntel put Lula da Silva at 45.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.2% in the first round, while Meduza said non-state polls showed the incumbent ahead by three percentage points. Interfax also cited an AtlasIntel second-round scenario with Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.7% and Lula da Silva at 47.6%, and said earlier polls had shown a small lead for the incumbent. Kommersant, citing Parana Pesquisas, reported that the gap between the two candidates was within the statistical margin of error and that the outcome could not be predicted. [ 1 , 3 , 12 ]
After the first round, Lula da Silva said he was ready for a one-on-one fight with Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, using a phrase about being good in the playoffs, RBC and Kommersant reported, citing Brazilian outlets GZH and O Dia. Kommersant's preview had quoted MGIMO professor Lyudmila Okuneva as saying that a Bolsonaro victory could establish a pro-American vector in Brazilian politics, but that Brazil would not leave BRICS even in that case. Kommersant noted China accounts for about 30% of Brazilian exports, including soy, beef and iron ore, while Russia supplies critical fertilizers, so Flávio Bolsonaro would have to balance between the United States and those ties. It also noted that under Lula da Silva, Brazil used its BRICS chairmanship to convene an online leaders' summit in September 2025 on a common strategy during the trade conflict with the United States. [ 1 , 9 , 11 ]
Why it matters
The runoff will decide whether Lula da Silva wins a fourth term or whether the presidency returns to the Bolsonaro family's camp. Kommersant reported that a Bolsonaro victory could push Brazil toward a pro-American foreign-policy vector, though it noted Brazil's trade dependence on China and Russia would limit any shift. The first-round result contradicted pre-election polls cited by Interfax and Meduza that had shown Lula ahead.
Key facts
- Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on 4 October. [ 3 , 10 , 12 ]
- A second round is scheduled for 25 October after no candidate won more than 50% of the vote. [ 1 , 3 , 9 , 10 , 12 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advanced to the second round, according to Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court. [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 10 , 13 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula da Silva in the first round, with outlets reporting differing vote totals: TASS said 47.42% to 44.70%, Vedomosti cited 47.03% to 45.16%, and TASS later said 47.09% after 99.70% of protocols were processed. [ 4 , 10 , 13 ]
- Lula da Silva said he is ready for a one-on-one fight with Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, using a phrase about being good in the playoffs. [ 9 , 11 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and a member of the right-wing Liberal Party. [ 3 , 7 , 10 , 12 ]
- Pre-election polls cited by Interfax and Meduza had shown Lula da Silva ahead before the first-round result put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead. [ 3 , 12 ]
- Meduza recalled that Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in September 2025 over an attempted coup, after Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings following the 2022 election. [ 12 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on 4 October. [ 3 , 10 , 12 ]
- A second round is scheduled for 25 October after no candidate won more than 50% of the vote. [ 1 , 3 , 9 , 10 , 12 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advanced to the second round, according to Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court. [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 10 , 13 ]
- Flávio Bolsonaro led Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round, but no candidate won more than 50% of the vote. [ 4 , 6 , 7 , 10 , 12 , 13 ]
- Lula da Silva said he was ready for a one-on-one contest with Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round. [ 9 , 11 ]
- Pre-election polls cited by the outlets had shown Lula da Silva ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, before the first-round result put Bolsonaro ahead. [ 3 , 12 ]
Still unclear
- The exact first-round vote shares for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva. Outlets gave different figures: TASS said 47.42% and 44.70%; Vedomosti, citing the Supreme Electoral Court, gave 47.03% and 45.16%; TASS later said 47.09% after 99.70% of electronic protocols were processed; Meduza reported approximately 47% and 45%.
- The number of candidates in the presidential race. TASS said the Supreme Electoral Court registered 12 candidates, while Interfax and Vedomosti said 13 contenders ran.
- Whether the first-round count is final. TASS reported figures after 99.70% of electronic protocols were processed, leaving the remaining share unaccounted for in the documents.
- Who will win the 25 October second round. The runoff has not been held; pre-election polls cited by Interfax and Meduza pointed in different directions.
- Why pre-election polls did not match the first-round result. Meduza noted that non-state polls showed Lula da Silva ahead by three percentage points, but the documents give no explanation for the discrepancy.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Kommersant publishes a preview citing the Parana Pesquisas institute as saying the race between Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro is within the margin of error and that a 25 October runoff is almost certain. [ 1 ]
- TASS reports that Brazil will hold the first round of its presidential election and that the Supreme Electoral Court registered 12 candidates. [ 2 ]
- Interfax reports that the first round is being held on 4 October with 13 contenders and a possible second round on 25 October. [ 3 ]
- TASS reports that Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva have advanced to the second round, with 47.42% and 44.70% of the vote respectively. [ 4 ]
- Interfax reports, citing Folha de S.Paulo, that Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula da Silva but fell short of winning in the first round. [ 7 ]
- RBC reports that Lula da Silva said he is ready for a one-on-one fight with Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round, quoting Brazilian outlets GZH and O Dia. [ 9 ]
- Vedomosti reports, citing the Supreme Electoral Court, that Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% (56.1 million votes) and Lula da Silva 45.16% (53.9 million). [ 10 ]
- Meduza reports that Lula da Silva lost the first round to Flávio Bolsonaro, citing Reuters and Brazil's Central Electoral Commission, and notes pre-election polls had shown the incumbent ahead. [ 12 ]
- TASS reports that after 99.70% of electronic protocols were processed, Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.09% of the vote. [ 13 ]