Japan’s Takaichi marks one year as LDP leader as “sanakatsu” boom fades
In short
Takaichi Sanae marked one year since winning Japan’s ruling LDP leadership on Oct. 4, with the Mainichi Shimbun reporting that the “Takaichi boom” among young and female voters has faded. Mainichi’s survey last month put cabinet approval at 45% against 40% disapproval, down from over 65% at the launch of her cabinet on Oct. 21 last year. A conservative base of about 40% is holding the rating up, Mainichi said.
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Takaichi Sanae marked one year since winning the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Oct. 4, with the Mainichi Shimbun reporting that the “Takaichi boom” that drew young and female voters has faded. Yonhap, Seoul Economic Daily and Kyunghyang Shinmun all relayed the Mainichi feature, which said the phenomenon produced both enthusiasm and disappointment over the past year. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Takaichi won the LDP leadership election on Oct. 4 last year and launched her cabinet on Oct. 21, becoming Japan’s first female prime minister. Presented as a non-hereditary politician who broke through in a male-dominated political world, she drew a wave of support among younger voters, with the term “sanakatsu” — combining her nickname “Sana” with “oshikatsu,” the practice of enthusiastically supporting a celebrity or character — spreading online, and some people buying the products she uses. Mainichi said the term has now all but disappeared from social media. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Mainichi analysed that voters who had hopes for the prime minister have drifted away over dissatisfaction with the cabinet’s policy record, with middle-ground opinion in particular peeling off. A 32-year-old woman in Chiba who works in the aviation industry told the newspaper she stopped “sanakatsu” after Takaichi’s remarks last November hinting at involvement in a Taiwan contingency; she said China-Japan relations froze afterwards, Chinese tourists declined and her airline took a heavy hit, and that she now questions whether this benefits Japan. On rising prices, she said she saw no policies that would improve daily life and that nothing had changed. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The approval picture is mixed. In Mainichi’s survey last month, cabinet approval stood at 45% against 40% disapproval, Yonhap and Seoul Economic Daily reported, down from more than 65% when the cabinet took office; Kyunghyang described approval as having fallen from the 60-70% range into the 40s. Mainichi said a solid conservative support base, estimated at about 40%, is holding the rating up. Kyunghyang reported that 43% of supporters cited the prime minister’s leadership and 18% cited policy expectations, and quoted University of Tokyo professor Makihara Izuru as saying the rating reflects expectations of her unique position and her frank manner of speaking rather than any achievement. The same report said support among independents fell from the late 50s at the cabinet’s launch to the 20s. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Kyunghyang also reported disappointment among those who had expected gender-equality progress from Japan’s first female prime minister: the first cabinet appointed only two female ministers and last month’s first reshuffle brought in no new women, while Takaichi opposes abolishing the mandatory shared surname for married couples and opposes female imperial succession. Okano Yayo, a gender researcher at Doshisha University, said there had been expectations that the prime minister would understand women’s difficulties, but that actual policy did not reflect them. [ 3 ]
On economic policy, Yonhap and Seoul Economic Daily relayed a Nikkei report that Takaichi, despite campaigning on “responsible active fiscal policy” and expanded spending, in practice listens to veteran finance ministry officials in shaping economic policy — contrary to the view that she excludes the ministry. Nikkei said she faces political costs in showing that she differs from Abenomics, and argued that with even the US government raising issues with Japan’s economic policy, an ambiguous approach aimed at her support base has reached its limits and the cabinet needs to revise a one-sided expansionary course. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
The slide in support among middle-ground and independent voters, and the cabinet’s reliance on a conservative base of roughly 40%, shape how the administration is likely to set policy. Nikkei argued that Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal stance may need revision, noting that even the US government has raised issues with Japan’s economic policy, while chilled China-Japan ties have already hit tourism and aviation, according to a voter cited by Mainichi.
Key facts
- Takaichi Sanae won the LDP leadership election on Oct. 4 last year and launched her cabinet on Oct. 21, becoming Japan’s first female prime minister. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- The Mainichi Shimbun reported that the “Takaichi boom” and the “sanakatsu” trend among young people, especially women, have faded, and that the word has all but disappeared from social media. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Mainichi’s survey last month put cabinet approval at 45% and disapproval at 40%, down from more than 65% when the cabinet took office. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Mainichi said a solid conservative support base of about 40% is holding the cabinet’s approval rating up. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- A woman in her 30s living in Chiba who works in the aviation industry cited Takaichi’s remarks hinting at involvement in a Taiwan contingency and the resulting strain with China as reasons she stopped “sanakatsu.” [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nikkei reported that Takaichi, despite pursuing “responsible active fiscal policy,” listens to veteran finance ministry officials in setting economic policy, and that an ambiguous stance aimed at her support base has reached its limits. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Kyunghyang Shinmun reported that the first cabinet had only two female ministers, that last month’s first reshuffle added no new women, and that Takaichi opposes abolishing the mandatory shared surname for married couples and opposes female imperial succession. [ 3 ]
- Kyunghyang Shinmun reported that support among independents fell from the late 50% range at the cabinet’s launch to the 20% range. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Takaichi won the LDP leadership on Oct. 4 last year and launched her cabinet on Oct. 21, becoming Japan’s first female prime minister. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Mainichi reported that the “Takaichi boom” and the “sanakatsu” trend it generated have faded, with the term no longer visible on social media. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Mainichi’s survey last month put cabinet approval at 45% and disapproval at 40%. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Mainichi said a conservative support base of about 40% is underpinning the cabinet’s approval. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- A woman in her 30s in Chiba who works in aviation cited the Taiwan contingency remarks and the deterioration in China-Japan relations as reasons she stopped “sanakatsu.” [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nikkei reported that Takaichi listens to finance ministry opinions in formulating economic policy despite her expansionary spending stance. [ 1 , 2 ]
Still unclear
- The criticism that Takaichi’s record on gender equality disappointed supporters, including the makeup of her cabinets and her positions on the married-couple surname system and female imperial succession, is reported in these documents only by Kyunghyang Shinmun. Single-source in the supplied documents; attributed there to Mainichi and to a gender researcher at Doshisha University.
- The exact date, sample and methodology of the Mainichi poll showing 45% approval are not given; the documents say only that it was conducted “last month.” Underlying survey details are not stated in any document.
- The documents do not say how far the November remarks on a Taiwan contingency changed China-Japan relations beyond the account of the Chiba aviation worker. One document links the remarks to fewer Chinese tourists and losses at her airline; no broader figures are given.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yonhap’s Tokyo correspondent relays Mainichi’s report that enthusiasm for Takaichi has cooled one year after her LDP leadership win. [ 1 ]
- Seoul Economic Daily carries the same Mainichi analysis, including the 45% approval and 40% disapproval figures, and Nikkei’s report on Takaichi’s fiscal policy. [ 2 ]
- Kyunghyang Shinmun publishes its account, adding the November Taiwan contingency remarks, the impact on an airline worker in Chiba, gender-equality criticism and poll internals. [ 3 ]