Finland's Stubb says Helsinki sees no evidence of a planned Russian attack
In short
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with Spain's El Mundo that Finland does not expect an attack from Russia and has no evidence of one, according to TASS, RIA Novosti and Kommersant. He said many European leaders confuse scenarios with the perception of threat and asked them to be “a bit more like Finns”. He also said Russia is taking growing risks with hybrid attacks, citing incidents attributed to Moscow in Germany, Estonia and Spain.
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Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Finland does not expect an attack from Russia and has no evidence of one, in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Mundo. “One thing is a scenario. Another is the perception of threat. Do we expect an attack from Russia? The answer is no. We have no evidence of this,” Kommersant quoted him as saying. TASS and RIA Novosti reported the same statement. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Stubb said many people confuse a real threat with scenarios, and urged Europeans to be “a bit more like Finns”, noting that Finland has the longest border with Russia of any NATO member and therefore sees what Russia intends to do or not to do. TASS reported that, according to the Finnish president, many EU leaders mix “scenarios and the perception of threat”. [ 1 , 3 ]
At the same time, Stubb said Russia is taking increasing risk with hybrid attacks, recalling incidents he said are attributed to it: the drone incidents in Leipzig, an attack on drone production in Estonia and the organisation of an influx of migrants into Spain. In modern hybrid warfare, he said, “distance does not matter”. [ 3 ]
Kommersant noted that for Finland, not expecting a direct attack does not mean a return to the previous model of relations with Russia. After Finland closed the border in November 2023 over a migrant influx that Finnish authorities attributed to Moscow's assistance, military assessment and defence against pressure at the border are treated as separate tasks. [ 3 ]
Finland joined NATO on 4 April 2023; after that, Kommersant reported, Russia regarded the country's proximity to the alliance as a threat and bilateral cooperation effectively ended. Working contacts continue at the level of border services and embassies, while there is no common EU decision on resuming direct political dialogue. NATO membership also does not mean the automatic placement of alliance military bases on Finnish territory, a decision that Kommersant said remains with the Finnish authorities. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
The remarks come from a NATO member that shares the alliance's longest border with Russia, so its public threat assessment is read as a signal on how far Finland expects tensions with Moscow to go. At the same time, Stubb's comments on hybrid attacks and the continuing freeze in Finnish-Russian relations indicate no return to earlier cooperation.
Key facts
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Finland does not expect an attack from Russia and has no evidence for such an expectation [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Stubb said many mix scenarios with the perception of threat, and asked Europeans to be “a bit more like Finns”, noting Finland has the longest border with Russia among NATO members [ 1 , 3 ]
- Stubb said Russia is taking increasing risk in hybrid attacks, citing drone incidents in Leipzig, an attack on drone production in Estonia and an organised influx of migrants into Spain [ 3 ]
- Finland closed its border with Russia in November 2023 over a migrant influx that Finnish authorities attributed to Moscow's assistance [ 3 ]
- Finland joined NATO on 4 April 2023; Russia then treated the alliance's proximity as a threat and bilateral cooperation effectively ended [ 3 ]
- Working contacts continue at the level of border services and embassies, with no EU decision to resume direct political dialogue [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- When and where the El Mundo interview was conducted and published The documents do not give a date or place for the interview, and Kommersant is the only outlet that names El Mundo as the interviewer.
- Whether Moscow has responded to Stubb's remarks None of the documents report any Russian reaction.
- The hybrid incidents Stubb cited The Leipzig drone incidents, the attack on drone production in Estonia and the migrant flows to Spain appear only in Kommersant, described as incidents attributed to Russia rather than as independently confirmed events.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- TASS reports Stubb's remarks on Finland not expecting an attack from Russia and on EU leaders mixing scenarios with threat perception [ 1 ]
- RIA Novosti reports that Finland has no evidence of a possible Russian attack, as acknowledged by Stubb [ 2 ]
- Kommersant publishes details from Stubb's interview with the Spanish newspaper El Mundo [ 3 ]