Finnish president Stubb says new world order likely by 2030
Version 2: A business outlet added detail to the same forecast: Stubb made the remarks at the UN General Assembly in September, described the new order as a shift to multipolar competition, and warned Europe against overreacting to Russian hybrid warfare while saying dialogue with Moscow should be a collective European decision.
In short
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said a new world order will probably emerge by 2030, according to RIA Novosti, TASS and Kommersant. TASS reported he sees the world as “somewhere in the middle” on the path to stabilization, while Kommersant said he described the process as being in an “intermediate state”. Kommersant, citing The Washington Post, said Stubb made the remarks at the UN General Assembly in September and also warned Europe against overreacting to what he called Russia’s hybrid war inside Europe.
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Finnish President Alexander Stubb said a new world order will probably take shape by 2030, according to RIA Novosti, TASS and Kommersant. TASS reported that Stubb sees the world as “somewhere in the middle” on the path to stabilization, while Kommersant said he described the current process as being in an “intermediate state”. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Kommersant, citing The Washington Post, said Stubb made the remarks at the UN General Assembly in September. It quoted him as saying: “I don’t know when the world will stabilize. Give it another five years or so. By 2030 we will probably get some kind of new order.” By a new order, Kommersant wrote, Stubb means a transition from a liberal system to multipolar competition in which developing countries take part in determining the rules and trade, technology, energy, investment and logistics become instruments of geopolitics. [ 3 ]
Stubb also warned European colleagues against an excessive reaction to “the escalation of Russia’s hybrid war inside Europe,” Kommersant reported. He called for a “Finnish” approach: keeping calm, assessing threats in a measured way and building pragmatic foreign policy ties. Kommersant said Stubb starts from the premise that distance no longer limits possible actions, and that Russia is alleged to be involved in a number of incidents in different European countries, with the risk of such attacks growing. [ 3 ]
On relations with Moscow, Kommersant reported that Finland maintains contacts with Russia at the level of border services and embassies, and that in Stubb’s position the resumption of political dialogue should be a collective European decision. The EU has no single view on such a dialogue, Kommersant added. [ 3 ]
RIA Novosti and TASS did not give the venue or the date of Stubb’s remarks, and neither outlet described what he expects the new order to involve beyond the 2030 timeframe. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
The forecast comes from the president of a country that borders Russia and has joined NATO, and it touches on how Europe should handle hybrid threats and whether to resume political dialogue with Moscow. Kommersant reported that the EU has no single view on such dialogue, so the remarks feed an unresolved debate among European states. The documents give no indication of any policy decision following the comments.
Key facts
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb said a new world order will probably be established by 2030. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Kommersant, citing The Washington Post, said Stubb made the remarks at the UN General Assembly in September. [ 3 ]
- TASS reported Stubb believes the world is currently “somewhere in the middle” on the path to stabilization; Kommersant said he described the process as being in an “intermediate state”. [ 2 , 3 ]
- By a new order, Stubb means a transition from a liberal system to multipolar competition in which developing countries take part in setting the rules, and trade, technology, energy, investment and logistics become tools of geopolitics, according to Kommersant. [ 3 ]
- Stubb warned European colleagues against an excessive reaction to “the escalation of Russia’s hybrid war inside Europe” and urged a “Finnish” approach of keeping calm, weighing threats and building pragmatic foreign policy ties, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- Kommersant reported that Finland keeps contacts with Russia at the level of border services and embassies, that resuming political dialogue should be a collective European decision, and that the EU has no single view on such dialogue. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- What concrete changes Stubb expects in the new world order. Kommersant gives a general description — a shift from a liberal system to multipolar competition — but no specific measures, institutions or actors.
- The exact date and place of the remarks. Kommersant, citing The Washington Post, says only that Stubb spoke at the UN General Assembly in September; no date is given, and RIA Novosti and TASS do not say where or when he spoke.
- Whether Russia is responsible for the incidents in European countries that Stubb referred to. Kommersant says Russia is “alleged” to be involved and names no specific incidents or evidence, so the claim is single-source and unattributed beyond the phrase.
- When or whether European political dialogue with Russia might resume. Kommersant reports only that Stubb says it should be a collective European decision and that the EU has no single view, without any timetable or decision.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- RIA Novosti publishes its report that Stubb believes a new world order will be established by 2030. [ 1 ]
- TASS publishes its report on the forecast, adding that Stubb sees the world “somewhere in the middle” on the path to stabilization. [ 2 ]
- Kommersant publishes a fuller account citing The Washington Post, including the UN General Assembly venue, Stubb’s definition of the new order and his remarks on hybrid warfare and dialogue with Russia. [ 3 ]