Bolsonaro Leads Brazil Election First Round; Lula Runoff Set for Oct. 25
In short
Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of Brazil's presidential election, ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 99 percent of votes counted, 47.2 percent to 44.9 percent, Fox News reported. The two will meet in a runoff on October 25. Brazil's real surged against the dollar and stocks rose after the result, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
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Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of Brazil's presidential election, a result outlets described as a surprise and an upset. With 99 percent of votes counted, Bolsonaro led incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 47.2 percent to 44.9 percent, Fox News reported. Bloomberg reported that Bolsonaro led as votes were still being counted, and described the outcome as an upset that made him the favourite to win the runoff. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 ]
Fox News reported that Bolsonaro ran strongly in his strongholds in the south and won the country's three largest states: São Paulo state by 52 percent to 38 percent, Minas Gerais by 48 percent to 43 percent and Rio de Janeiro by 53 percent to 39 percent. Lula won large margins in his traditional strongholds in the Northeast, including Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará, Fox News reported, but it was not enough to overcome Bolsonaro's result in those states. [ 2 ]
The result followed polling that had mostly shown Lula with a single-digit lead, according to Fox News. Fox News reported that the polling failure would give further ammunition to the Brazilian right and the Bolsonaro camp, which have long alleged that the country's leading pollsters produce work biased in favour of Lula and his Workers Party, and that the polling situation had been similarly unfavourable to Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 and 2018, though relatively minor by comparison. Bolsonaro will now face Lula in an October 25 second-round election, Fox News and Bloomberg reported. [ 2 , 4 ]
Markets moved after the result. Brazil's real surged against the dollar in São Paulo on Monday morning, Bloomberg reported from Brazil, and Reuters reported that the country's currency and stocks soared after Bolsonaro's first-round election upset. [ 4 , 5 ]
Bloomberg reported that a victory for Bolsonaro would accelerate President Donald Trump's effort to reassert US primacy over the Americas, after conservative allies won recent votes in Colombia, Chile and Peru, and Fox News described the result as continuing a long run of wins for Latin American candidates backed by Trump. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
The runoff on October 25 will decide the presidency of Latin America's largest economy, and the first-round result has already moved Brazilian assets, with the real surging against the dollar and stocks rising. Bloomberg reported that a Bolsonaro victory would accelerate President Donald Trump's effort to reassert US primacy over the Americas, after conservative allies won recent votes in Colombia, Chile and Peru. Fox News framed the result as part of a run of wins for Trump-backed right-wing candidates in Latin America.
Key facts
- Flávio Bolsonaro led Brazil's first-round presidential election with 99 percent of votes counted, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 47.2 percent to 44.9 percent, according to Fox News. [ 2 ]
- Bolsonaro and Lula will face each other in a second-round runoff on October 25. [ 2 , 4 ]
- Brazil's real surged against the dollar in São Paulo on Monday morning and Brazilian stocks and the currency soared after the result, Bloomberg and Reuters reported. [ 4 , 5 ]
- Fox News reported that polls before the vote had mostly shown Lula with a single-digit lead, and the result was described by Bloomberg as a surprise and by Reuters as an upset. [ 2 , 4 , 5 ]
- Fox News reported Bolsonaro won Brazil's three largest states — São Paulo state 52 percent to 38 percent, Minas Gerais 48 percent to 43 percent and Rio de Janeiro 53 percent to 39 percent — while Lula won the Northeast by large margins, including Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará. [ 2 ]
- Bloomberg reported that a Bolsonaro victory would accelerate President Donald Trump's effort to reassert US primacy over the Americas, after conservative allies won recent votes in Colombia, Chile and Peru. [ 1 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of Brazil's presidential election against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 ]
- Bolsonaro and Lula will meet in a second-round runoff on October 25. [ 2 , 4 ]
- Brazil's real and Brazilian stocks rose after the first-round result. [ 4 , 5 ]
- The first-round result was a surprise relative to pre-election polling, which had indicated Lula was ahead. [ 2 , 4 , 5 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the first-round count was complete, and what the final certified tally is. Fox News cited 99 percent of votes counted and said Bolsonaro won the first round, while Bloomberg described him as leading as votes were still being counted; no final certified figure is given in the documents.
- Whether Bolsonaro's first-round lead will hold and who will win the October 25 runoff. Both documents that mention the runoff treat the outcome as still to be decided.
- Long-standing allegations by the Bolsonaro camp that Brazil's leading pollsters produce work biased in favour of Lula and his Workers Party. The allegations appear only in Fox News's account, are attributed to the Bolsonaro camp, and no evidence is presented in the documents.
- The claim that a Bolsonaro victory would accelerate President Donald Trump's effort to reassert US primacy over the Americas. This appears only in Bloomberg's summary as analysis, with no supporting detail or second source.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Bloomberg reports that Flávio Bolsonaro led Brazil's first-round election as votes were still being counted. [ 1 ]
- Fox News reports Bolsonaro won the first round, leading Lula 47.2 percent to 44.9 percent with 99 percent of votes counted, and that the two will meet in an October 25 runoff. [ 2 ]
- Bloomberg publishes a video report on Bolsonaro taking a surprise lead over Lula. [ 3 ]
- Bloomberg reports that Brazil's real surged against the dollar in São Paulo and that Bolsonaro is the favourite to win the runoff. [ 4 ]
- Reuters reports that Brazil's currency and stocks soared after Bolsonaro's first-round election upset. [ 5 ]