Tesla cuts 2026 capex target to $20 billion after third-quarter spending misses forecasts
In short
Tesla spent $4.73 billion on capital expenditure in the third quarter, against an analyst consensus of $7.95 billion, and lowered its 2026 spending target to $20 billion from more than $25 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were 48 cents against an expected 44 cents. Tesla shares fell 2.5% in after-hours trading, according to cnBeta.
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Tesla's capital expenditure in its third quarter was $4.73 billion, far below the Wall Street consensus of $7.95 billion, CLS and 36Kr reported. CLS described the money as the investment meant to support Tesla's strategic shift toward artificial intelligence, robots and autonomous driving. [ 1 , 3 ]
36Kr, citing Sina Finance, said Tesla cut its spending plan because investment progress in the previous quarter lagged expectations. Tesla said after releasing results on Wednesday that capital expenditure this year would be around $20 billion. 36Kr said this reverses the earlier-in-the-year increase of the target to more than $25 billion. [ 3 ]
cnBeta reported that Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja announced the cut on the earnings call, lowering the 2026 target from the earlier estimate of more than $25 billion to $20 billion. Tesla invested $8.3 billion in the first half of the year. Tesla shares fell 2.5% in after-hours trading after the cut and were down 14% for the year as of Wednesday's close. [ 2 ]
Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were 48 cents, above the average analyst expectation of 44 cents, according to CLS and cnBeta. cnBeta added that quarterly revenue was slightly below expectations. [ 1 , 2 ]
Both CLS and cnBeta linked the spending to a possible merger with SpaceX. CLS said the two companies have each formed a special committee to evaluate the deal. cnBeta said Musk stated this week that SpaceX and Tesla had begun studying a potential merger, and described the shift toward AI, robots and autonomous driving as a core rationale for it. [ 1 , 2 ]
Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer of Karobaar Capital, was quoted by both outlets. He said lower capital expenditure is good only if it does not sacrifice future growth. Because Tesla's valuation depends heavily on Robotaxi and Optimus, he wanted to know whether the spending had been shifted between quarters or the projects were expanding more slowly than expected. [ 1 , 2 ]
CLS also quoted an investment analysis director at Ark Investment (named 塔莎·基尼 in the Chinese report), who said Robotaxi is Tesla's core future area and that Tesla's Cybercab has a clear operating-cost advantage over Waymo's next-generation vehicle. CLS added that all of Tesla's business currently rests on three models. [ 1 ]
Why it matters
The outlets link Tesla's spending to its shift toward AI, robots and autonomous driving. An investor quoted by CLS and cnBeta said lower spending is good news only if it does not cost future growth, and it is not yet clear whether the lower spending reflects timing or slower progress.
Key facts
- Tesla's third-quarter capital expenditure was $4.73 billion, against a Wall Street consensus of $7.95 billion. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Tesla cut its 2026 capital expenditure target to $20 billion from a previous estimate of more than $25 billion. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja announced the lower target on the earnings call, and cnBeta said Tesla invested $8.3 billion in the first half of the year. [ 2 ]
- Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were 48 cents, above the average analyst expectation of 44 cents. [ 1 , 2 ]
- cnBeta said quarterly revenue was slightly below expectations. [ 2 ]
- Tesla shares fell 2.5% in after-hours trading and were down 14% for the year as of Wednesday's close, cnBeta reported. [ 2 ]
- Musk said this week that SpaceX and Tesla had begun studying a potential merger. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Third-quarter capital expenditure was $4.73 billion, well below the $7.95 billion analyst consensus. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Tesla lowered its 2026 capital expenditure target to $20 billion from more than $25 billion. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Adjusted earnings per share of 48 cents beat the average analyst expectation of 44 cents. [ 1 , 2 ]
- A SpaceX-Tesla merger is under consideration. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Karobaar Capital's chief investment officer, Haris Khurshid, said lower capital expenditure is good only if it does not sacrifice future growth, and that he wants to know whether the spending was merely shifted between quarters or the Robotaxi and Optimus projects are expanding more slowly than expected. [ 1 , 2 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the lower spending reflects timing between quarters or slower progress on Robotaxi and Optimus. Khurshid raised this as an open question in the coverage, and the documents do not answer it.
- Whether Tesla and SpaceX have each set up special committees to evaluate the merger. Only CLS reports this; the other documents do not mention it.
- Whether the stock fell after the announcement and by how much. Only cnBeta gives a share-price figure (2.5% lower after hours).