CNN poll puts Trump approval at 32%, Democrats 10 points ahead for midterms
In short
A CNN/SSRS poll released on 21 October put President Donald Trump's job approval at 32%, 7 points below the level just before the 2018 midterms. Democratic candidates led Republicans 49% to 39% in the poll, ahead of the 3 November US midterm elections.
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A poll by CNN and the pollster SSRS, released on 21 October (US local time), put President Donald Trump's job approval at 32%. Yonhap said this was the lowest in a CNN poll. The figure is 7 percentage points below the level just before the 2018 midterms, when Newsis noted the Democrats won back a House majority. The US midterm elections are on 3 November. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The share who 'strongly approve' of Trump's performance was 13%, 17 points lower than at the 2018 midterms. In the poll, Trump's approval on economic policy was 27% and on handling inflation 23%. Yonhap said anger over rising prices appeared to weigh heavily on his ratings. Among Republican supporters his approval was 74%, down by more than 10 points from 88% in February of last year. [ 1 , 2 ]
Asked which party's candidate they would back in their district, 49% chose Democrats and 39% Republicans. This is the largest Democratic lead in a CNN poll since just before the 2020 presidential election. Democrats led Republicans by 70 points among Black voters, 40 points among Hispanic voters and 21 points among women, and by 15 points among independents. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Yonhap added that 41% of respondents said the country would be better off if Democrats won the midterms, 37% said it would be worse, and 22% expected little difference. CNN noted that many key battleground areas are places where Trump won by large margins, so it is uncertain whether the Democratic lead will turn into a large gain in seats. [ 1 , 2 ]
Newsis also reported a New York Times/Siena poll released on 21 October, in which 36% approved of Trump's performance and 59% disapproved. Newsis said it was the lowest in that organisation's polls across his two terms. In that poll Democratic candidates had 52% against 41% for Republicans. Newsis linked the decline to voters' dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the response to the war with Iran. [ 3 ]
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement that the White House sees Trump as the leader of the Republican Party and a key figure in delivering policy to voters, and is working to keep the congressional majority. He said the election is a choice between backing Trump's policies and opposing the Democrats' progressive policies. Newsis said Democrats are judged likely to retake the House, while the Senate races remain close. [ 3 ]
The CNN poll was conducted from 15 to 18 October among 1,701 US adults, including 1,206 registered voters. Its margin of error is 2.9 points for all adults and 3.3 points for registered voters. The NYT/Siena poll was conducted by telephone from 12 to 19 October among 3,494 voters, with a margin of error of 1.9 points. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The polls point to weaker support for Trump and a Democratic lead ten days before the midterms. CNN itself said it is uncertain whether the lead would turn into a large gain in seats.
Key facts
- CNN, with pollster SSRS, released a poll on 21 October (US local time) showing Trump's job approval at 32%, 7 percentage points lower than just before the 2018 midterms. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Democratic candidates were backed by 49% and Republican candidates by 39%, a 10-point gap and the largest Democratic lead in a CNN poll since just before the 2020 presidential election. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Trump's approval on the economy was 27% and on inflation 23%. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Among Republican supporters Trump's approval was 74%, down from 88% in February of last year. [ 1 , 2 ]
- A New York Times/Siena poll released the same day showed Trump at 36% approve and 59% disapprove, and Democrats ahead 52% to 41%, according to Newsis. [ 3 ]
- The US midterm elections are on 3 November. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The CNN/SSRS poll put Trump's job approval at 32%, 7 points below the level just before the 2018 midterms. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- In the CNN poll Democrats led Republicans 49% to 39%, the largest Democratic lead in a CNN poll since just before the 2020 election. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- CNN said it is uncertain whether the Democratic poll lead will turn into a large gain in seats, because many key battleground areas are places where Trump won by large margins. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The CNN poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 points for all adults and 3.3 points for registered voters. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the Democratic lead in polls will become a large gain in seats. Yonhap and CBS NoCut News both report that CNN called this uncertain.
- Which party will control the Senate. Newsis reports that the Senate races remain close and that control is uncertain.
- The main cause of the fall in Trump's approval. Yonhap and CBS NoCut News point to anger over rising prices, while Newsis cites cost of living and the response to the war with Iran; these are the outlets' own accounts, not poll findings stated in the documents.