Polling firm Wedgewood admits fabricating surveys that US outlets and aggregators used
In short
Wedgewood Polls said on October 20 that its survey results were fabricated and that the project was a "social experiment" on how easily a fictitious firm could gain recognition. The admission came after the site FiftyPlusOne confronted it with evidence the data was fake. Newsweek retracted three articles, Decision Desk HQ removed 17 of its polls, and The New York Times removed its Wedgewood polls from its tracking pages.
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Wedgewood Polls, a polling firm whose surveys were reproduced by prominent US media outlets, said on October 20 that its results were fabricated. It described the effort as a social experiment meant to expose weaknesses in the polling industry. The statement came after researchers at the election analysis site FiftyPlusOne confronted it with evidence that its underlying data was fake. [ 1 , 3 , 5 ]
On X, Wedgewood said it wanted to test how easy it is for an entirely fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously and expose how little scrutiny exists in media and public commentary. "The short answer: Far too easy," it said. It also said the numbers were given instant credibility across national media platforms and pointed to a "systemic breakdown in media vetting and data aggregation." [ 1 , 3 , 5 , 6 ]
Newsweek, The Hill, Breitbart, The Daily Beast and the Washington Examiner reproduced Wedgewood surveys. The results were also in polling databases kept by The New York Times, Nate Silver, VoteHub and FiftyPlusOne. Newsweek said it retracted three articles and corrected others. Decision Desk HQ said it removed 17 Wedgewood polls from its race-level lists and averages. The New York Times removed the polls from its tracking pages and said in an editors' note that it had included 15 of them after the pollster answered detailed questions about its identity, methods and funding. [ 1 , 3 , 6 ]
Wedgewood emerged in June 2026, presenting itself as a new independent polling organization. An early survey of Louisiana's Republican Senate primary showed John Fleming leading Julia Letlow by 4 percentage points, but Letlow won by almost 14 points on June 27. On July 10, Washington Monthly columnist Bill Scher said the firm had only recently entered polling and that its first survey had been badly wrong. On August 20, Straight Arrow News examined the firm's background. [ 1 , 3 ]
Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, questioned Wedgewood's claim that it had always meant to run an experiment. He wrote that it was "kind of suspicious" that the statement came on the day the firm was caught. The Seattle Times said that while Wedgewood claimed it was all a ploy, the effort seemed to involve a lot of work. [ 5 , 6 ]
The Seattle Times said it was the second time this year that fake polls had become news in the political world. In August, a group behind a different set of bogus polls in California, Nevada and Wisconsin said it had published them as a social experiment. PBS NewsHour reported that a day after the admission, FCC head Brendan Carr said on X that TV networks could violate their regulatory obligations by airing fake polls. [ 5 , 6 ]
Why it matters
The case raises questions about how media outlets and polling aggregators vet little-known pollsters ahead of the midterms. The Seattle Times described it as the second time this year that fake polls have become news in the political world.
Key facts
- Wedgewood Polls said on October 20 that its results were fabricated and that the effort was a social experiment to expose weaknesses in the polling industry. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The statement followed contact from FiftyPlusOne, an election analysis site, about its investigation into Wedgewood's data. [ 1 , 3 , 5 , 6 ]
- Outlets that reproduced Wedgewood surveys included Newsweek, The Hill, Breitbart, The Daily Beast and the Washington Examiner. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Decision Desk HQ said it removed 17 Wedgewood polls from its race-level polling lists and averages. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The New York Times removed Wedgewood polls from its poll tracking pages and published an editors' note saying it had included 15 of them. [ 3 , 6 ]
- Newsweek said it retracted three articles and corrected others. [ 1 ]
- Wedgewood first appeared in June 2026; a Washington Monthly columnist questioned it on July 10. [ 1 , 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Wedgewood Polls admitted its polling data was fabricated, calling the project a social experiment or experimental project, after FiftyPlusOne questioned its results. [ 1 , 3 , 5 , 6 ]
- Wedgewood said on X that the answer to how easy it was for a fabricated firm to gain traction was "Far too easy." [ 1 , 5 , 6 ]
- Decision Desk HQ removed 17 Wedgewood polls from its race-level polling lists and averages. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The New York Times and FiftyPlusOne had included Wedgewood data in their polling databases and removed it after the admission. [ 3 , 5 , 6 ]
- Newsweek, The Hill, Breitbart, The Daily Beast and the Washington Examiner reproduced Wedgewood surveys. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the project was always intended as an experiment. Columbia University professor Andrew Gelman wrote that it was "kind of suspicious" that the statement came on the day the firm was caught (PBS NewsHour); no other document addresses this.
- How much of Wedgewood's output was fabricated. Documents describe it as "almost all", "the vast majority" and "most" of its work; none gives an exact figure.
- Whether Nate Silver's forecast shifted towards Republicans after the polls were removed. Only a Newsweek headline and summary say so; no article text was available.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Newsweek published its report on Wedgewood's statement, saying it had retracted three articles. [ 1 ]
- Newsweek reported that Nate Silver's forecast shifted towards Republicans after Wedgewood polls were removed. [ 2 ]
- The Guardian US reported Wedgewood's admission and Decision Desk HQ's removal of 17 polls. [ 3 ]
- PBS NewsHour reported the admission and Gelman's doubts about the experiment claim. [ 5 ]
- The Seattle Times described the removal of 15 Wedgewood polls from New York Times pages and the firm's "experimental project" claim. [ 6 ]