Fitch affirms Ras Al Khaimah’s A+ rating, raises 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%
Version 2: The previous version did not have the size or direction of the forecast revision; the new documents show Fitch raised its 2026 forecast to 1.5% growth from a previously expected 1.8% contraction, add its 5% 2027 projection and the roughly 11%-of-GDP debt path, and clarify that the emirate was removed from Rating Watch Negative while its outlook remains Negative.
In short
Fitch has affirmed Ras Al Khaimah’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘A+’ and raised its 2026 growth forecast for the emirate to 1.5%, from a previously expected contraction of 1.8%. The agency removed the emirate from Rating Watch Negative, saying direct risks tied to regional conditions have eased since April 2026, while the broader outlook remains Negative. Fitch expects growth to rebound to 5% in 2027 and sees public-sector debt broadly stable at about 11% of GDP over 2026-2028.
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Fitch has affirmed Ras Al Khaimah’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘A+’, the state news agency WAM and three business outlets reported. Aletihad and Economy Middle East said the agency also raised its 2026 GDP forecast for the emirate to 1.5% growth, against a contraction of 1.8% it had previously expected — a 3.3-percentage-point revision, according to Economy Middle East. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Fitch removed Ras Al Khaimah from Rating Watch Negative, saying direct risks associated with regional conflict had eased since April. Gulf News and Aletihad reported that the impact of those geopolitical challenges was limited to a modest delay and a marginal increase in the cost of launching a potentially transformational investment project in the emirate. Economy Middle East cautioned that removal from Rating Watch Negative does not mean the outlook has returned to Stable, and said the emirate’s broader rating outlook remains Negative because of continued uncertainty over regional conditions. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
The agency said the ‘A+’ rating is supported by low public-sector debt, substantial fiscal buffers, high GDP per capita and the economic and financial benefits of UAE federation membership, according to Aletihad and Economy Middle East. Fitch said its revision rested on first-half 2026 data showing greater resilience than expected, supported by solid domestic demand and stronger intra-Gulf economic activity. It forecast growth accelerating to 5% in 2027, and, Aletihad reported, expected consolidated public-sector debt to remain broadly stable at about 11% of GDP over the 2026-2028 period. [ 3 , 4 ]
A spokesperson for the Ras Al Khaimah Government told Aletihad that the emirate’s continued growth “despite regional and global challenges” reflects the resilience and strength of its economy, adding that “this achievement is no coincidence”. The spokesperson said the emirate had consistently turned challenges into opportunities for continued growth, reinforcing confidence in its economy, as shown by Fitch’s reaffirmation of the ‘A+’ rating, its removal from Rating Watch Negative and the upward revision of the 2026 growth forecast. [ 3 ]
Aletihad noted that Ras Al Khaimah is the northernmost of the UAE’s seven emirates and described a diversified economy with growth recorded and projected across various sectors; its text on the emirate’s GDP composition is truncated in the material available. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
The affirmation and the sharply higher growth forecast indicate that the ratings agency now assesses the emirate’s credit profile more favourably than earlier in 2026, which matters for its borrowing costs and for the investment project the documents mention. The retention of a Negative outlook and the reference to a delayed, slightly more expensive project launch show that regional uncertainty has not been fully resolved.
Key facts
- Fitch affirmed Ras Al Khaimah’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘A+’. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch raised its 2026 GDP forecast for Ras Al Khaimah to 1.5% growth, against a previously expected contraction of 1.8%. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Economy Middle East described the revision as a 3.3-percentage-point improvement in Fitch’s 2026 forecast. [ 4 ]
- Fitch expects growth to accelerate to 5% in 2027. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch removed Ras Al Khaimah from Rating Watch Negative, citing an easing of direct risks from regional conflict since April; Economy Middle East reported the broader outlook remains Negative. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch said the ‘A+’ rating is supported by low public-sector debt, substantial fiscal buffers, high GDP per capita and the benefits of UAE federation membership. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch said the impact of geopolitical challenges since April 2026 was limited to a modest delay and a marginal increase in the cost of launching a potentially transformational investment project in the emirate. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Fitch expects consolidated public-sector debt to remain broadly stable at about 11% of GDP over the 2026-2028 period. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Fitch affirmed Ras Al Khaimah’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘A+’. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch raised its 2026 growth forecast for Ras Al Khaimah to 1.5%, compared with a previously expected contraction of 1.8%. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch attributed the revision to stronger-than-expected first-half 2026 data, solid domestic demand and stronger intra-Gulf activity. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch expects Ras Al Khaimah’s GDP growth to reach 5% in 2027. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch removed Ras Al Khaimah from Rating Watch Negative after concluding that direct risks from the regional conflict had eased since April. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch said the ‘A+’ rating is supported by low public-sector debt, substantial fiscal buffers, high GDP per capita and the benefits of UAE federation membership. [ 3 , 4 ]
- Fitch said the impact of geopolitical challenges was limited to a modest delay and a marginal increase in the cost of launching a potentially transformational investment project in the emirate. [ 2 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Which investment project Fitch refers to, and its size or value. Gulf News and Aletihad describe a ‘potentially transformational investment project’ but do not name it, give figures or say which sector it is in.
- What the geopolitical challenges since April 2026 were. They are referred to in general terms only; no document names them or describes the events.
- The scope of the Negative outlook and what could change it. Only Economy Middle East states that the outlook remains Negative; the documents give no criteria or timeline for a change in outlook or rating.
- Ras Al Khaimah’s GDP composition and sector-level growth. Aletihad begins to describe the emirate’s GDP composition, but the article text provided is truncated mid-sentence.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- WAM publishes its item reporting that Fitch affirmed Ras Al Khaimah’s ‘A+’ rating and raised its 2026 growth forecast. [ 1 ]
- Gulf News publishes its report, citing an easing of direct geopolitical risks since April 2026 and a delayed, marginally more expensive investment project launch. [ 2 ]
- Aletihad publishes its report, giving the 2026 forecast as 1.5%, the 2027 forecast as 5% and quoting a Ras Al Khaimah Government spokesperson. [ 3 ]
- The following day, Economy Middle East publishes its report, noting the 3.3-percentage-point revision and that the outlook remains Negative despite removal from Rating Watch Negative. [ 4 ]