Seoul apartment property taxes could rise 54% by 2030 if prices keep climbing, analysis says
In short
An analysis by opposition lawmaker Shin Dong-wook, based on a simulation model from KB Kookmin Bank, projects that property tax on 125 major apartment complexes in Seoul could rise about 53.5% by 2030 if home prices keep rising at this year's pace. Districts such as Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk would see the steepest percentage increases, outpacing Gangnam's three districts. Higher fair market value ratios or slower price growth would change the size of the increase, but not the direction, the analysis said.
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An analysis by People Power Party lawmaker Shin Dong-wook, a member of the National Assembly's Political Affairs Committee, projects that property taxes on major Seoul apartment complexes could rise by more than 50% by 2030 if home prices continue climbing. The analysis used a simulation model submitted by KB Kookmin Bank and covered the five most expensive complexes in each of Seoul's 25 districts, 125 in total, according to Yonhap, Maeil Business and Seoul Economic Daily. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
The projection assumes a single household owning one apartment in the 30-pyeong range, an assessed value set at 69% of the July 27 KB market price, and annual price growth of 10.3% — the cumulative rise in Seoul apartment prices from January to September this year. Holding the fair market value ratio, which links assessed prices to the taxable base, at this year's 45%, average property tax principal per complex would grow from 2,197,296 won to 3,372,928 won in 2030, an increase of 117.5 million won, or 53.5%. The figures exclude local education tax and the city-area portion of property tax. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Tax amounts are highest in the Gangnam districts, but the rate of increase is steepest where past bills were smaller. Under the 45% scenario, complexes in Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk would rise 76.1%, from 753,232 won to 1,326,421 won, and Geumcheon, Gwanak and Guro would rise 65.3%. Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa would rise 46.6% and Mapo, Yongsan and Seongdong 49.5%. Most complexes estimated to owe less than 1 million won this year would cross that line by 2030; Yonhap cited Songcheon Centerville in Gangbuk, Geonyoung 3rd in Nowon and Ssangyong in Dobong as examples. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Higher fair market value ratios would widen the burden. A ratio of 50% from next year would put the 2030 average at 3,817,698 won, up 73.7%, with six complexes owing more than 10 million won in principal, including Raemian One Bailey in Seocho, where the bill would go from 6.76 million won to about 11 million won. A ratio of 60% would put the average at 4,707,035 won, 2.14 times this year's level, with 11 complexes above 10 million won. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The increase persists at slower price growth. Halving the annual gain to 5.15% while keeping the ratio at 45% would leave the 2030 average at 2,826,003 won, up 28.6%, with Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk up 40.6% against 24.9% in the Gangnam districts. Maeil Business quoted Shin as saying the analysis shows Seoul apartment property taxes rising sharply because of what he called the government's failed real estate policy, and warning that raising the fair market value ratio would draw resistance from Seoul residents. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The figures feed an ongoing debate over property tax burdens in Seoul ahead of possible changes to the fair market value ratio, which is the link between assessed prices and the taxable base. The documents present the numbers as scenarios from an opposition lawmaker's analysis rather than as a government decision, so the practical effect depends on whether tax rules are actually changed. Districts with previously lighter tax bills would see the largest proportional increases, which the lawmaker framed as a source of public opposition.
Key facts
- Shin Dong-wook, a People Power Party lawmaker on the National Assembly's Political Affairs Committee, analyzed property taxes on the top five priced apartment complexes in each of Seoul's 25 districts, 125 complexes in total, using a simulation model submitted by KB Kookmin Bank. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The analysis assumed a single household owning one apartment in the 30-pyeong range, an assessed price set at 69% of the KB market price as of July 27 this year, and an annual price gain of 10.3%, matching Seoul apartment price growth from January to September. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Holding the fair market value ratio at this year's 45%, average property tax principal per complex would rise from 2,197,296 won this year to 3,372,928 won in 2030, an increase of 53.5%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk complexes would rise 76.1%, Geumcheon, Gwanak and Guro 65.3%, Mapo, Yongsan and Seongdong 49.5%, and Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa 46.6% under the 45% scenario. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- If the fair market value ratio were raised to 50% from next year, the 2030 average would be 3,817,698 won, up 73.7% from this year, and six complexes would owe more than 10 million won in property tax principal. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- If the ratio were set at 60%, the 2030 average would be 4,707,035 won, 2.14 times this year's level, with 11 complexes above 10 million won. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Even if annual price growth were halved to 5.15%, keeping the ratio at 45% would raise the 2030 average property tax to 2,826,003 won, up 28.6%, with Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk up 40.6% versus 24.9% in the Gangnam three districts. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Shin said the analysis shows Seoul apartment property taxes rising sharply due to what he called the government's failed real estate policy, and warned that raising the fair market value ratio would draw resistance from Seoul residents. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The analysis was conducted by People Power Party lawmaker Shin Dong-wook using a simulation model submitted by KB Kookmin Bank, covering the top five priced complexes in each of Seoul's 25 districts, 125 in total. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The projection assumes an annual Seoul apartment price rise of 10.3%, the cumulative increase from January to September this year, and a single household owning one apartment in the 30-pyeong range. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- With the fair market value ratio held at 45%, average property tax principal would rise 53.5%, from 2,197,296 won to 3,372,928 won, by 2030. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk would see a 76.1% increase, a higher rate than Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa at 46.6%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Raising the fair market value ratio to 50% or 60% from next year would increase the 2030 average by 73.7% or to 2.14 times this year's level, respectively. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the fair market value ratio will actually be changed All documents present the 45%, 50% and 60% ratios as hypothetical scenarios; none reports a government decision or plan to adjust the ratio.
- The lawmaker's criticism of government real estate policy and his warning of public resistance Attributed to Shin Dong-wook in only one outlet, Maeil Business, and not carried in the other documents.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yonhap publishes the analysis, citing lawmaker Shin Dong-wook and KB Kookmin Bank's simulation model. [ 1 ]
- Maeil Business publishes its report, including Shin's criticism of the government's real estate policy. [ 2 ]
- Seoul Economic Daily publishes its report on the projections. [ 3 ]
- Chosun Ilbo publishes a summary of the analysis. [ 4 ]