Study: AI adoption could cut Russia's labour demand by 10% by 2035
In short
A study by experts at the Presidential Academy (RANEPA) models the effect of mass AI adoption on Russia's labour market through 2035 and concludes the economy would need 10% fewer workers — 69 million instead of 76.7 million — Kommersant reported. The effect would be uneven across 19 sectors, with the highest AI penetration in finance, insurance, science and professional activity and the lowest in construction, mining and agriculture. TASS reported that the study concludes AI will ease the labour shortage by 10% and will not lead to higher unemployment.
Read the full story 2 min read
A study by experts at the Presidential Academy (RANEPA) concludes that mass AI adoption would reduce the number of workers Russia's labour market needs by 10% by 2035, Kommersant reported. The work, titled “Scenario modelling of the development of the Russian labour market by sector taking into account the influence of artificial intelligence”, models the most likely scenario across 19 sectors, the newspaper said. [ 1 ]
According to Kommersant, the authors based their model on data from the Economy Ministry, the Labour Ministry and Rosstat, on analytics from the international consultancies McKinsey and BCG, and on data from Russian recruiting platforms. The model assumes the current level of AI development, in which the technology can perform individual professional tasks for a person but does not fully replace them, the report said. [ 1 ]
Without AI adoption, the Russian labour market would need 76.7 million workers by 2035; with the technology scaled up, it would need 69 million — 10% less, Kommersant reported. The effect would be uneven by sector. The highest AI penetration — the share of work tasks taken over — was modelled for finance and insurance and for scientific and professional activity at 46% each, followed by information and communication and education at 43% each and culture at 42%, according to the newspaper. The lowest was in sectors with a large share of manual labour: construction at 17%, mining at 15% and agriculture at 10.7%. [ 1 ]
The ranking of sectors best able to raise productivity through AI differs, Kommersant reported: information and communication first with a projected 55% increase, trade second at 29% and real estate operations third at 18%. At the bottom of that list were agriculture, hotels and water supply, at 17% each, the newspaper said. [ 1 ]
TASS reported that the RANEPA assessment concluded AI adoption would ease the labour shortage on the Russian labour market by 10% and would not lead to higher unemployment. The two documents frame the 10% differently — Kommersant as a reduction in the number of workers the market would need, TASS as an easing of the labour shortage — and do not reconcile the two descriptions. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
The study feeds Russia's discussion of a shrinking workforce, projecting that AI could reduce how many workers the economy needs while the outlets say it would not push unemployment up. Its sector-by-sector figures suggest the labour-market effects would fall unevenly, with white-collar and information sectors most exposed and manual-labour sectors least. The documents do not quantify wage or regional effects.
Key facts
- Experts at the Presidential Academy (RANEPA) modelled the most likely scenario of AI's effect on the Russian labour market to 2035 across 19 sectors, Kommersant reported. [ 1 ]
- The model uses data from the Economy Ministry, the Labour Ministry, Rosstat, McKinsey and BCG analytics and Russian recruiting platforms, according to Kommersant. [ 1 ]
- Without AI adoption, the Russian labour market would need 76.7 million workers by 2035; with the technology scaled up, 69 million — 10% fewer, Kommersant reported. [ 1 ]
- The study uses the current level of AI development, where the technology can perform individual professional tasks but does not fully replace a person, according to Kommersant. [ 1 ]
- Maximum AI penetration is projected in finance and insurance and in scientific and professional activity (46% each), information and communication (43%), education (43%) and culture (42%), Kommersant reported. [ 1 ]
- Minimum AI penetration is projected in construction (17%), mining (15%) and agriculture (10.7%), according to Kommersant. [ 1 ]
- Productivity gains from AI are projected to be largest in information and communication (55%), trade (29%) and real estate operations (18%), Kommersant reported. [ 1 ]
- TASS reported that the assessment concludes AI adoption will ease Russia's labour shortage by 10% and will not lead to higher unemployment. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The study projects that mass AI adoption will ease the labour shortage on the Russian labour market by 10% by 2035 and will not lead to higher unemployment. [ 2 ]
- The assessment was produced by experts at the Presidential Academy (RANEPA) and covers the effect of AI on the labour market to 2035. [ 1 , 2 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the 10% figure refers to lower demand for workers or to a smaller labour shortage. Kommersant describes a 10% reduction in the number of workers the market would need (76.7 million versus 69 million), while TASS describes a 10% easing of the labour shortage; the documents do not reconcile the two framings.
- The date and full publication details of the study. Kommersant refers to an article in its own pages on the research and TASS to an RANEPA assessment, but neither document gives the study's publication date or full title beyond Kommersant's description.
- Effects on wages, specific occupations or regions. The documents report only sector-level penetration and productivity figures, with no wage, occupation or regional breakdown.