France's 2026 wine output forecast at about 35 million hectolitres after heat and drought
In short
France will produce about 34.9 million hectolitres of wine in 2026, the lowest in the 21st century, because of extreme heat and drought, Vedomosti reported, citing Reuters and a forecast by France's agriculture ministry. Champagne's production is expected to halve compared with 2025, while Bordeaux's is expected to rise by 10%. Outlets gave different figures for how far output will fall compared with 2025.
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France will produce about 34.9 million hectolitres of wine in 2026, the lowest in the 21st century, because of extreme heat and drought, Vedomosti reported, citing Reuters and a forecast by France's agriculture ministry. The figure is above the September forecast of 33.9 million hectolitres, thanks to higher than expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon. According to Vedomosti, the updated estimate is 2% below the 2025 level and 14% below the 2021–2025 average. TASS, citing Bloomberg, reported that wine production in France may fall to a minimum because of drought, with about 35 million hectolitres expected in 2026. [ 1 , 2 ]
Kommersant, citing the statistical service of France's agriculture ministry, gave different comparisons: it reported that production will be 6% lower than in 2025 and 17% below the 2012–2015 average. The ministry said this year's harvest will be one of the lowest in the last 30 years, according to Kommersant. [ 3 ]
The ministry attributes the decline to a 2.5% reduction in the area of fruit-bearing vineyards compared with 2025 and to the effects of an unusually hot and dry summer. "The drought intensified across the whole country, and periods of strong heat in places led to overheating, sunburn, leaf fall and withering of grapes, which reduced harvest volumes," the ministry said, as quoted by Kommersant. Results differed widely between departments. [ 3 ]
Champagne was hit hardest, Vedomosti reported, with production halved compared with both 2025 and the average of the last five years; frost, hail, drought and heat affected the harvest. Kommersant also reported that the Champagne harvest will be half of last year's. Vedomosti reported that declines are also expected in Burgundy-Beaujolais, the Loire Valley, Charentes, Jura and south-east France. Kommersant reported that in Burgundy the Pinot Noir variety was hit particularly hard, with losses exceeding 50% and production volume 33% lower, and that production in the Loire Valley is expected to fall by 12%. [ 1 , 3 ]
In Bordeaux, by contrast, production is expected to be 10% higher than last year, both outlets reported. Vedomosti said it will still be 11% below the average level. Kommersant reported that vineyard area in Bordeaux shrank by 5% over the year and attributed the expected growth to better yields. [ 1 , 3 ]
Why it matters
Vedomosti, Kommersant and TASS reported the forecast, which points to lower French wine output this year. The ministry links the decline to heat, drought and a smaller area of fruit-bearing vineyards, and results differ widely between regions.
Key facts
- Vedomosti, citing Reuters and France's agriculture ministry, reported that France will produce about 34.9 million hectolitres of wine in 2026, the lowest in the 21st century. [ 1 ]
- The estimate is above the September forecast of 33.9 million hectolitres, thanks to higher than expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon. [ 1 ]
- Production in Champagne is expected to be half of the 2025 level. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Production in Bordeaux is expected to be 10% higher than last year. [ 1 , 3 ]
- In Burgundy, losses of the Pinot Noir variety exceed 50%, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- Production in the Loire Valley is expected to fall by 12%, Kommersant reported. [ 3 ]
- The ministry attributes the decline partly to a 2.5% reduction in the area of fruit-bearing vineyards compared with 2025. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- France is expected to produce about 35 million hectolitres of wine in 2026. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Drought is cited as a cause of lower wine production in France. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- French wine production in 2026 will be lower than in 2025. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Production in Champagne will be half of the 2025 level. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Production in Bordeaux is expected to be 10% higher than last year. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Production is expected to fall in Burgundy and the Loire Valley. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- How much production will fall compared with 2025. Vedomosti reported a 2% decline, while Kommersant reported a 6% decline.
- How the forecast compares with past averages. Vedomosti reported output 14% below the 2021–2025 average; Kommersant reported 17% below the 2012–2015 average.
- Kommersant's volume figure. Kommersant's text gives this year's output as 34 hectolitres, without stating millions, while Vedomosti gives 34.9 million and TASS about 35 million.
- Whether the harvest is the lowest of the century. Vedomosti reported the lowest output in the 21st century, while Kommersant quoted the ministry as saying it will be one of the lowest in the last 30 years.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Vedomosti reports, citing Reuters, that French wine production in 2026 will be the lowest in the 21st century. [ 1 ]
- TASS reports, citing Bloomberg, that French wine production may fall to a minimum because of drought. [ 2 ]
- Kommersant reports that French wine production will fall by 6% compared with 2025. [ 3 ]