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World Bank keeps Russia's 2026 GDP growth forecast at 0.8%
Коротко
The World Bank kept its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2026 at 0.8%, according to its updated outlook for the Europe and Central Asia region. It expects growth of 0.7% in 2027 and 0.7% in 2028, slowing from 1% in 2025, citing weaker oil output, sanctions, staff shortages, fading budget stimulus and lower investment. Vedomosti also noted that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 2 October that Russian GDP growth would accelerate to 2.4% by 2029.
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The World Bank kept its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2026 at 0.8%, according to its updated economic outlook for the markets of Europe and Central Asia, as reported by Interfax, Vedomosti and TASS. The documents state that Russian GDP grew 1% in 2025. Vedomosti and Interfax report that the bank expects growth of 0.7% in 2027 and 0.7% in 2028. TASS reported only the 2026 figure and the 2025 reading. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The World Bank said growth in Russia, described in the report as a large energy producer, is likely to slow to 0.8% from 1% in 2025, because higher world energy prices are not providing substantial support amid reduced oil production in the country, linked among other things to disruption at refineries. Interfax and Vedomosti both reported the bank's assessment. [ 1 , 2 ]
For 2027-2028, the World Bank listed further negative factors: fading fiscal and budgetary stimulus for the Russian economy, restrictions on activity due to sanctions, a shortage of personnel, weakening investment and lower oil prices. These points appeared in both Interfax's and Vedomosti's reports. [ 1 , 2 ]
Regionally, the bank expects growth in Europe and Central Asia to slow to 2.2% this year from 2.6% in 2025, and to 3% from 3.7% excluding Russia, Interfax reported. It put 2027 growth at 2.4% and 3.4% respectively, and 2028 growth at 2.6% and 3.7%. Average consumption growth in the region is expected to slow to 4% in 2026 from 5.9% in 2025, and the average budget deficit is seen at close to 2.6% of GDP this year. Interfax also reported that Turkey, the region's second-largest economy after Russia, is expected to grow 2.8% this year against 3.7% a year earlier. [ 1 ]
Vedomosti reported that on 2 October Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russian GDP growth would accelerate to 2.4% by 2029, and that inflation is forecast at 6.8% at the end of 2026 and 4% from 2027. Investment is projected to fall 5.4% in 2026 before returning to growth of 0.2% in 2027, 2.5% in 2028 and 3% in 2029, according to the same report. It added that Finance Minister Anton Siluanov had said Russia's federal budget for 2027 would be drafted with a deficit of around 2% of GDP. [ 2 ]
Почему это важно
The World Bank's outlook points to several years of near-stagnant growth for Russia, with sanctions, labour shortages and weaker investment named as constraints. Russian officials have publicly projected faster growth, so the gap between the two sets of numbers is likely to remain a point of contention. The forecast also matters for the wider Europe and Central Asia region, where the bank expects growth to slow this year.
Ключевые факты
- The World Bank kept its 2026 forecast for Russian GDP growth at 0.8% [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- The bank expects Russian GDP growth of 0.7% in 2027 and 0.7% in 2028 [ 1 , 2 ]
- Russian GDP grew 1% in 2025, according to the World Bank [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- The World Bank said growth would slow because higher world energy prices are not providing material support amid reduced oil production, including refinery disruptions [ 1 , 2 ]
- For 2027-2028, the bank cited fading fiscal stimulus, sanctions, staff shortages, weaker investment and lower oil prices [ 1 , 2 ]
- The bank expects regional growth in Europe and Central Asia to slow to 2.2% this year from 2.6% in 2025 [ 1 ]
- Vedomosti reported that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 2 October that Russian GDP growth would accelerate to 2.4% by 2029 [ 2 ]
Подтверждено несколькими источниками
Пока неясно
- Whether the 2027 and 2028 forecasts were unchanged from the bank's previous outlook Interfax and Vedomosti say the 2026 forecast was kept, but neither states whether the 0.7% figures for 2027 and 2028 are new or unchanged, and TASS did not report those years at all.
- How the World Bank's forecast relates to Russian officials' own projections Only Vedomosti reports the official projections, and none of the documents reconcile the 0.8% World Bank figure with Novak's 2.4% growth by 2029.
- Who issued the inflation and investment forecasts cited by Vedomosti Vedomosti reports a 6.8% inflation forecast for 2026 and a 5.4% fall in investment in 2026 without stating which institution produced them.
Что пишут местные СМИ
Хронология, местное время
- Interfax publishes the World Bank's updated outlook, keeping the 2026 Russian GDP growth forecast at 0.8% [ 1 ]
- Vedomosti publishes its report on the same forecast, adding Russian officials' own growth projections [ 2 ]
- TASS reports that the World Bank kept its 2026 forecast at 0.8%, with 2025 growth at 1% [ 3 ]