Chinese brokerages mildly optimistic on A-shares for Q4, see AI and tech as main theme
In short
Several Chinese brokerages said they hold a degree of optimism on A-shares for the fourth quarter as trading resumes after the National Day holiday, with several naming technology and AI as a main theme. China Securities (中信建投) said overseas liquidity pressure has eased after a September pullback and that earnings verification matters more as third-quarter reports arrive, recommending AI hardware, industrial metals, coal, oil and gas, basic chemicals, innovative drugs, and securities and insurance stocks.
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Several Chinese brokerages hold a degree of optimism about A-shares for the fourth quarter as trading resumes after the National Day holiday, CLS reported on October 6. Zheshang Securities (浙商证券) expects its "diamond structure" to continue in the fourth quarter, is neutral-to-optimistic on domestic policy and broad-index valuations, and holds a neutral-to-optimistic view of the market overall. "After the volatile pullback in the third quarter, we believe this bull market has not ended and still has room to play out," Guosen Securities (国信证券) said. Xiangcai Securities (湘财证券) expects macro conditions and fundamentals to stay relatively strong for most of the fourth quarter of 2026, with the market possibly showing a profit-defensive slow bull. Several brokerages said technology still has a second wave of opportunities, with AI remaining a fourth-quarter allocation. [ 3 ]
In a research report, China Securities (中信建投) said A-shares adjusted overall in September as tightening overseas liquidity combined with valuation digestion in sectors that had risen sharply earlier. Growth and resource sectors pulled back more, while lower-positioned sectors such as real estate, pharmaceuticals and banks did relatively better. For October, it said overseas liquidity pressure has eased and the market is entering the period of dense third-quarter earnings disclosures, making fundamental verification more important. [ 1 , 2 ]
China Securities expects technology earnings to keep growing at a relatively high rate in third-quarter reports, and earnings expectations to improve in some sectors including resources, pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials. It said AI hardware remains in a strong cycle, energy prices are holding firm and medium-term supply and demand still supports industrial metals, while valuation pressure in some high-growth sectors eased after the September adjustment. It recommended AI hardware with high earnings certainty; industrial metals, coal, oil and gas and basic chemicals supported by supply constraints and improving earnings; innovative drugs with an improving industry trend; and low-valuation securities and insurance stocks with improving earnings. [ 1 , 2 ]
Reviewing the holiday, Shanghai Securities News, carried by Jiemian, reported that US Treasury yields stayed high, gold fluctuated and crude oil rose then fell, while US stocks, especially AI technology, strengthened, with the Nasdaq and Nvidia hitting record highs. In Hong Kong, AI large models became a market focus. It said brokerage strategy reports generally found no major overseas shocks during the holiday, saw recovery momentum, and expected A-shares to rise in both volume and price after the break, with a "Red October" in prospect. Yicai ran an institutional strategy item headlined that the technology main line may regain the lead. [ 4 , 5 ]
Why it matters
The outlooks, published around the first A-share trading day after the long holiday, set out where brokerages expect opportunities in the final quarter of the year. They tie that view to third-quarter earnings and to overseas liquidity, which China Securities said weighed on A-shares in September. They are forecasts, not market results.
Key facts
- China Securities said A-shares adjusted overall in September as overseas liquidity tightened and sectors with large earlier gains saw their valuations digested. [ 1 , 2 ]
- China Securities said overseas liquidity pressure has eased heading into October and the market is entering the period of dense third-quarter earnings disclosures. [ 1 , 2 ]
- China Securities recommended AI hardware, industrial metals, coal, oil and gas, basic chemicals, innovative drugs, and low-valuation securities and insurance stocks. [ 2 ]
- Guosen Securities (国信证券) said it believes the current bull market has not ended after the third-quarter pullback. [ 3 ]
- Zheshang Securities (浙商证券) said it holds a neutral-to-optimistic view of the A-share market overall. [ 3 ]
- Several brokerages said technology still has a second wave of opportunities and AI remains a fourth-quarter allocation, CLS reported. [ 3 ]
- During the holiday the Nasdaq and Nvidia hit record highs, Shanghai Securities News reported. [ 4 ]
- Brokerage strategy reports generally expect A-shares to rise in both volume and price after the holiday, Shanghai Securities News reported. [ 4 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- Whether A-shares will rise after the holiday. The documents contain brokerage forecasts only; none reports post-holiday trading results.
- What Zheshang Securities means by the continuing "diamond structure". CLS cites the term without explaining it.
- The content of Yicai's institutional strategy item. Only its headline, that the technology main line may regain the lead, is available.
- China Securities said overseas liquidity pressure has eased and the market is entering the third-quarter earnings disclosure period. Reported by a single source so far
- Brokerages are broadly optimistic about A-shares after the National Day holiday. Reported by a single source so far
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- October 5: CLS reports China Securities' October outlook for A-shares. [ 1 ]
- October 5: Jiemian publishes the China Securities outlook, including its allocation recommendations. [ 2 ]
- October 6: CLS reports fourth-quarter outlooks from several brokerages, including Zheshang, Guosen and Xiangcai. [ 3 ]
- October 8: Jiemian carries a Shanghai Securities News summary of holiday market moves and brokerage expectations for the first post-holiday trading day. [ 4 ]
- October 8: Yicai publishes an institutional strategy item headlined that the technology main line may regain the lead. [ 5 ]